Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[pasnownut]

GFS still trolling hard for CTP and LSV.  

It is now my wishicasting model of choice for Fern.  

It pops secondary while others seem to delay or not transfer.  IMO that is partly why its a crowd pleaser (for viewing purposes).

 

 

[paweather]

 

[pasnownut]

17 minutes ago, canderson said:

One of my best friends is originally from Pottsville and every Christmas gets some of that. It’s not bad! 

Yep, it was a christmas staple at my parents/relatives houses.  

[MAG5035]

55 minutes ago, Blizzard92 said:

Obviously much higher QPF event back in 2007, but does anyone recall the breakdown of pure sleet (vs. snow / freezing rain) accumulation in the Valentine's Day storm across the LSV?

Back this way the PSU Walker Building noted 5.8” of snow and 2.8” of sleet on the observation card from that event, and then a further 1.8” of snow on the next day’s observation card. I do remember this storm made quite the glacier pack. 

 

[Ruin]

12 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Shut up

um no I wont shut up lol I have every right to say this just like you have a right to say what you want. Ive never attacked any one here 

[Jns2183]

Here

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[WmsptWx]

Just now, Jns2183 said:

Here

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All my homies hate the NAM.

[paweather]

93 Superstorm had the same type of results sleet at times mostly snow. 

[Blizzard of 93]

0z GFS is not backing down 

[Blizzard of 93]

0z RGEM looked good too 

[mahantango#1]

ABC27 thinks snow could be done by 8:30pm Sunday night.

[pasnownut]

verbatim, GFS keeps me white thru duration.

 

700's/850"s/skew T's  approve of this post.

I'm riding that horse off to bed.  My oldish buzzed arse has a lot of prep work to do for Sunday Snowy Funday.

nightynight

 

[pasnownut]

8 minutes ago, paweather said:

93 Superstorm had the same type of results sleet at times mostly snow. 

and because we know its pingers and not ZR, I personally dont really care.  Its the ultimate pack densifier/retention agent.  Especially with cold that is to follow.  

Just like my wife always tells me, I dont need too much...just enough.

with that I say gnight.

 

[Ruin]

3 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

ABC27 thinks snow could be done by 8:30pm Sunday night.

they have been ending earlier and eelier and starting it later and later I dunno what the in house model they use and what model they base it off of. 

[paweather]

Just now, pasnownut said:

and because we know its pingers and not ZR, I personally dont really care.  Its the ultimate pack densifier/retention agent.  Especially with cold that is to follow.  

Just like my wife always tells me, I dont need too much...just enough.

with that I say gnight.

 

Talk tomorrow have a good night

[pasnownut]

9 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

ABC27 thinks snow could be done by 8:30pm Sunday night.

They need to step away from the bottle.  Show me one run that suggests that quick a cutoff.  Most we are looking at show midnight to early sunday morning.  

[mahantango#1]

Just now, Ruin said:

they have been ending earlier and eelier and starting it later and later I dunno what the in house model they use and what model they base it off of. 

Idk either what they are using. It looks like my start time is around 5am, earlier it was around 2am.

[WmsptWx]

Just now, pasnownut said:

They need to step away from the bottle.  Show me one run that suggests that quick a cutoff.  Most we are looking at show midnight to early sunday morning.  

You said goodnight already. Hands off the keys. 

 

Or does somebody need to say dobru noc?

[mahantango#1]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

They need to step away from the bottle.  Show me one run that suggests that quick a cutoff.  Most we are looking at show midnight to early sunday morning.  

They are talking about the dreaded dry slot showing up.

[WmsptWx]

Just now, mahantango#1 said:

Idk either what they are using. It looks like my start time is around 5am, earlier it was around 2am.

Out this way, I had seen/read a start of just after midnight. I honestly never care about when it wraps up because once it's started, I kinda tune out and go on about my life. 

 

If football ends before the snow, I'll be shocked. 

[MAG5035]

Oh yea here’s some current obs, it’s half a degree here right now. 

[Caveman]

15 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Back this way the PSU Walker Building noted 5.8” of snow and 2.8” of sleet on the observation card from that event, and then a further 1.8” of snow on the next day’s observation card. I do remember this storm made quite the glacier pack. 

 

That was the I-78 Lebanon County fiasco!

[WmsptWx]

Currently three degrees. Going to light my bed on fire here shortly. 

[canderson]

in the gfs* we trust 

 

* it’s been dogshit for 6 months, maybe a broken clock … 

[Jns2183]

ABC27 thinks snow could be done by 8:30pm Sunday night.

It also seems like it may start much earlier

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[Ruin]

19 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Idk either what they are using. It looks like my start time is around 5am, earlier it was around 2am.

the earliest start time I saw was 10pm 11pm sat night but the average was 1-2am but keep pushing it back saying its a slower storm but then they end it 5 hours earlier lol 

[Ruin]

1 minute ago, Jns2183 said:

It also seems like it may start much earlier

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actually they pushed it back to 5am when before it was before midnight or on average 1-2am 

[Jns2183]

in the gfs* we trust 
 
* it’s been dogshit for 6 months, maybe a broken clock … 

This is the sounding for Norman Ok, off the 18z NAM for 21z, a mere 3 hours after initiation. Next image is temperature from weather ballon launched at 21z.

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[canderson]

12 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

This is the sounding for Norman Ok, off the 18z NAM for 21z, a mere 3 hours after initiation. Next image is temperature from weather ballon launched at 21z.

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This is the opposite of the Office Pam “these are the same images” meme 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

UKIE looks solid as well. 

I want to ignore the NAM...I just can't.