Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Yardstickgozinya]

2 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

Look to bottom right at initial phase then look at skew-t. I'm utterly confused how initial phase is not snow

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I was really hoping somebody would come by with an explanation. If thats a  zr sounding it makes me wonder what the hell I even learned the basics for. 

[GrandmasterB]

So far using the NAM and ICON, I liked the small trends at 12Z on both models. Slightly later phasing and a little flatter heights to our east. Now onto the big boys! 

[Voyager]

40 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Is it to early to make a bread and milk run  

Let the good times roll! 

 

39 minutes ago, canderson said:

Stores were swamped last night so def not 

With my schedule, I can't shop until Saturday. It'll probably be a madhouse with the usual items sold out.

[Blizzard92]

So much for my flight to the annual American Meteorological Society meeting on Sunday! 

[str8liner]

5 hours ago, anotherman said:

Lock it in. I guess I will have to get the blower down and gass it up for the first time this year.

I was just complaining about not needing it so far, so maybe I will have to do that to bring the snow luck to my area from here on out.

 

[paweather]

12z GFS no mixing at all. 

[GrandmasterB]

I let the whole GFS run play out before I formed an opinion, but gawd damn. I need a cold shower! That’s pretty much the perfect evolution for the southern crew. (True central is getting smacked regardless). This run is a hair flatter and primary never gets north of West VA. I don’t need to see the snow maps to know we just got buried. 

[paweather]

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, GrandmasterB said:

I let the whole GFS run play out before I formed an opinion, but gawd damn. I need a cold shower! That’s pretty much the perfect evolution for the southern crew. (True central is getting smacked regardless). This run is a hair flatter and primary never gets north of West VA. I don’t need to see the snow maps to know we just got buried. 

Great to hear. 

[paweather]

1 minute ago, GrandmasterB said:

I let the whole GFS run play out before I formed an opinion, but gawd damn. I need a cold shower! That’s pretty much the perfect evolution for the southern crew. (True central is getting smacked regardless). This run is a hair flatter and primary never gets north of West VA. I don’t need to see the snow maps to know we just got buried. 

Buried!

[pasnownut]

Just now, paweather said:

I just want that pink below is to stay there. Is that asking too much. lol

[GrandmasterB]

This is going to sound incredibly weenie, but that snow map is probably under done if that’s the way this thing goes down. I could see 20+ if that GFS depiction is accurate. 

[AccuChris]

12z GFS kuchera zoomed in on Harrisburg area


.

[GrandmasterB]

GFS is super long duration due to the coastal influence. It’s a little bit alone in that aspect, but let’s hope it’s onto something! 

[GrandmasterB]

Canadian weakens the primary faster and colder up top vs. its 0Z run. Pretty much all I care about from that model.

[paweather]

Is the GFS a later start time?

[GrandmasterB]

Took this from the MA thread and I 100% agree:

”Seems like a theme of 12z so far has been flattening the flow over the central CONUS. Nice because it should help with keeping the primary from rushing north so much. Hopefully it is a trend.”

[Itstrainingtime]

79/71 here in Miami.

71 dewpoint!

@mahantango#1 let's trade places.

[paweather]

UKIE is still a bomb!

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Ukie QPF which stays all snow north of the MD line.....

[GrandmasterB]

1 minute ago, paweather said:

UKIE is still a bomb!

Great outcome for us, but it’s in the Euro/CMC/NAM camp with the primary running pretty far north and not as much coastal action. GFS still alone on that evolution I’m afraid. 

[Voyager]

17 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Took this from the MA thread and I 100% agree:

”Seems like a theme of 12z so far has been flattening the flow over the central CONUS. Nice because it should help with keeping the primary from rushing north so much. Hopefully it is a trend.”

I'm not sure I want a trend so much as for it to hold serve just as it is. Everyone gets close to, or even above 20" as depicted. I'd kind of hate to lose what I (or we) have gained the past few runs.

[paweather]

11 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Great outcome for us, but it’s in the Euro/CMC/NAM camp with the primary running pretty far north and not as much coastal action. GFS still alone on that evolution I’m afraid. 

We will see what the EURO says today. But I get the feeling we may see some icing it won’t impact the overall evolution of the storm and snowfall totals.

[sauss06]

1 hour ago, str8liner said:

Lock it in. I guess I will have to get the blower down and gass it up for the first time this year.

I was just complaining about not needing it so far, so maybe I will have to do that to bring the snow luck to my area from here on out.

 

don't F-ing jinx this by preparing

[Mount Joy Snowman]

3 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

Look to bottom right at initial phase then look at skew-t. I'm utterly confused how initial phase is not snow

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Yeah, this is something I've noticed many times over the years, where a skew-t gives a clear no-doubt-about-it all snow signal the whole way through the column and yet the output will say mix.  I have no idea what's going on in the algorithm that causes that to occur.  Anyone?

[pasnownut]

47 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

GFS is super long duration due to the coastal influence. It’s a little bit alone in that aspect, but let’s hope it’s onto something! 

Euro had similar progression. Glad to hear. 

[pasnownut]

42 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Canadian weakens the primary faster and colder up top vs. its 0Z run. Pretty much all I care about from that model.

Best news if the day. Primary needs quick death or to be weaker to keep thermals safe. 

[pasnownut]

20 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Ukie QPF which stays all snow north of the MD line.....

Even if we pull off all snow in LSV, gut says 12-13:1 for us. 15:1 likely hills north of the burg and towards waterboy up in da Skook. 

[pasnownut]

7 minutes ago, paweather said:

We will see what the EURO says today. But I get the feeling we may see some icing it won’t impact the overall evolution of the storm and snowfall totals.

Like you I expect it. Climo is hard to argue against down here when miller Bs are being discussed. Just hoping we eek out a good dump prior to it. 

[GrandmasterB]

14 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I'm not sure I want a trend so much as for it to hold serve just as it is. Everyone gets close to, or even above 20" as depicted. I'd kind of hate to lose what I (or we) have gained the past few runs.

Even with 60 hours to go…just based on the factors we have going in, I think it’s safe to lock in at least 8”+ for the both of us. I’m looking for trends to see if we can cash in on the high end amounts.