Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[paweather]

Just now, pasnownut said:

thats what my hope is and why I shared the 700's as they show primary pressing right up into wva.  it was also evident to a lesser degree on 0z run for CMC, so lets hope its not onto something.  700/850's look fine w/ critical thickness well S of M/D line.  CAD feauture also very evident, so IF there was some credence to this solution, I'd think taint in in our hood would be sleet and no ice.  

We still get a good front end thump

[MAG5035]

7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Don't read MU's thoughts. At least if you want a snowstorm at home.

Is he bailing on the first sign of a mix? haha

[pasnownut]

7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Don't read MU's thoughts. At least if you want a snowstorm at home.

Shouldnt you be chasing Minnie Mouse around right now??

[pasnownut]

Just now, MAG5035 said:

Is he bailing on the first sign of a mix? haha

He's warmingsta wishcasting.....

 

I hope

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, paweather said:

We still get a good front end thump

You have Uke outputs?

 

[paweather]

8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Don't read MU's thoughts. At least if you want a snowstorm at home.

Not sure what you mean majority of models showing at least 8” or more before icing would occur

[paweather]

I posted them already at least a foot of Snow likely more

[canderson]

4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Is he bailing on the first sign of a mix? haha

Yup!

1/5 So here's my take on the impending #WinterStorm this weekend. Over the last few days, I've seen talk of this being a VA/Delmarva special & have been quiet due to skepticism on such an outcome. Let's take a step back & see why this could continue trending even farther north..

2/5 First, the "50/50 Low" is displaced north. When combined with a trough axis going neutrally tilted over the Plains, this allows heights to rise over the Eastern States & gives the storm room to track farther north/west. A PNA ridge axis over the E. Pac also supports this..

3/5 Next, the timing/interaction between a powerful, cutoff low within the #JetStream's southern branch & northern branch disturbance diving southward out of Canada will be vital. A sharper trough/more "digging" of the northern branch & faster ejection of the Baja low will..

4/5 .. allow the systems to "phase," or join forces, sooner &, therefore, strengthen more quickly. Basically, the Baja low can get out ahead of & its energy then be absorbed into the northern branch of the Jet Stream sooner (EURO/CMC/ICON). A slower Baja low comes out flatter..

5/5 .. & gets suppressed by the northern branch system due to a messier interaction with it (GFS). See the GIFs below for how each model handles the subsequent evolution of the system. My bet is on a continued trend N/W with mixing issues perhaps well into PA.. #StayTuned

[Jns2183]

Is he bailing on the first sign of a mix? haha

I wish for a twitter battle between him and the WPC

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Day 6 worrying about suppression and by day 4 worrying about sleet intrusion, got to love the joys of east coast snowstorm tracking haha.  I'll plant my flag in Lancaster and take our chances.  As others have stated, the opening WAA has to be hefty no matter what given the strength of the antecedent cold airmass.

[Eskimo Joe]

7 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Is he bailing on the first sign of a mix? haha

He seems to love dunking on snow chances. I can understand his reticence on not seeing some sleet nose into the Lower Susquehanna Valley, but he consistently seems to be the first person to rain on the parage of snow lovers.

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

He seems to love dunking on snow chances. I can understand his reticence on not seeing some sleet nose into the Lower Susquehanna Valley, but he consistently seems to be the first person to rain on the parage of snow lovers.

and while he might find a way to be right in the end, I'm not sure what hes saying as GFS/Euro/ICON are similar in progression while the CMC is by itself.  I just looked to make sure someone didnt spike my lemon water at lunch.  

Sorry but he's out to lunch on what was shared above.  only one w/ sharper, more neg tilt is CMC.  all others are pos tilt and progressive in nature (keeping SLP south and lessening chance of primary cutting).  IF things slow down and cutoff happens, then he might be onto something.  From my amateur view, things looked more consolidated and less separation.   

[Itstrainingtime]

I'm sorry. I took a quick look on our lunch stop. I shouldn't have posted. Back to my warm weather. (It’s bordering on hot today)

[WmsptWx]

I've been busy and haven't had much of a chance to browse. Looks like things have changed to where precip type issues may now be present. Has the screw zone now also become a possibility?

[AccuChris]

12z Euro AI 10:1 snow map stays solid


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[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

12z Euro AI 10:1 snow map stays solid
 

8" - 12" of snow for everyone seems reasonable.

[pasnownut]

Just looked at Ukie, and it too has a warm nose, so I'm guessing that's why it wasnt posted.  We still have times for trends (good or bad), but Ukie still shows a nuke job w/ suffiecint CAD east of apps to not really get into a hissyfit....yet. 

0z's tonight will be stressful w/ much gnashing of nails n teeth wating to see if its a trend....or a hiccup... hehe

[canderson]

6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm sorry. I took a quick look on our lunch stop. I shouldn't have posted. Back to my warm weather. (It’s bordering on hot today)

Oh no you are smart to alert it. It spurs good discussion! Don’t die of heat exhaustion please! 

[pasnownut]

Ukie was a step back from 0z for sure.  Had time to look it over.  Camps forming

Ukie/CMC vs IKON/GFS/EURO

well at least some foreigners still agree w/ us.  

[AccuChris]

12z Euro Op kuchera snow map still looks great


.

[Superstorm]

Euro is gorgeous

[Superstorm]

Just now, AccuChris said:

12z Euro Op kuchera snow map still looks great


.

Love the CAD signature.

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, Superstorm said:

Love the CAD signature.

I'm only out to 96 on pivotal....my waiting/wondering about the warm nose is over.  I'll fast forward to where you are at and call it a win.  

 

[pasnownut]

Just went through Euro panels and basically same SLP with a touch more WAA west of apps, but much the same as 0z in the end.  

CAD is a thing of beauty and hopefully our keys to the snowy promise land. 

[MAG5035]

20 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

He seems to love dunking on snow chances. I can understand his reticence on not seeing some sleet nose into the Lower Susquehanna Valley, but he consistently seems to be the first person to rain on the parage of snow lovers.

Yea I mean I’m not going to argue his points, they’re valid. I’ve posted a couple times about his point #2 (western ridge alignment) the last couple days, why not air the skepticism he had when some guidance had this buried in the Carolinas as recently as yesterday at 12z?

With that said, there’s only so much this storm is going to punch up into that cold air mass. It’s still fairly progressive in nature. Any PA mixing issues would likely be relegated to mainly sleet and not after a pretty large amount of snowfall. That strong of CAD isn’t going to get dislodged below 850mb by this. MDT is in the low teens for most of this event. 

 

[pasnownut]

4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Yea I mean I’m not going to argue his points, they’re valid. I’ve posted a couple times about his point #2 (western ridge alignment) the last couple days, why not air the skepticism he had when some guidance had this buried in the Carolinas as recently as yesterday at 12z?

With that said, there’s only so much this storm is going to punch up into that cold air mass. It’s still fairly progressive in nature. Any PA mixing issues would likely be relegated to mainly sleet and not after a pretty large amount of snowfall. That strong of CAD isn’t going to get dislodged below 850mb by this. MDT is in the low teens for most of this event. 

 

and on behalf of the B string, some of us have shared that same point - this has a more progressive tilt that runs into heavy antecedent cold dome, so while taint is a possibility, this is the kind of event that being east of the apps insulates us from those worries.   

Now if that cutoff stalls and digs more in the future, well then I guess taint could make a run deeper into central Pa. if trough goes more neg tilt. 

Downer is what Mt Joy suggested, we went from suppressed to primary trying to cut, with 3 days to go.  Like you said, CAD is stoudt and should do its thing.  We hope.  

[paweather]

EURO is a beat down great run!

[pasnownut]

NAM's will be close to joining the party in a bit.  Hoping they help and not hurt us.

[Superstorm]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

and on behalf of the B string, some of us have shared that same point - this has a more progressive tilt that runs into heavy antecedent cold dome, so while taint is a possibility, this is the kind of event that being east of the apps insulates us from those worries.   

Now if that cutoff stalls and digs more in the future, well then I guess taint could make a run deeper into central Pa. if trough goes more neg tilt. 

Downer is what Mt Joy suggested, we went from suppressed to primary trying to cut, with 3 days to go.  Like you said, CAD is stoudt and should do its thing.  We hope.  

Even if there is sleet, it would be after 12" to 18" of snow.  That thump is going to be unreal.

[AccuChris]

From Eric Horst:



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