Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[paweather]

I miss Matt Moore he was one of the best!

[WmsptWx]

4 minutes ago, paweather said:

I miss Matt Moore he was one of the best!

Is he no longer with us? Lol 

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Is he no longer with us? Lol 

I’m not sure what you mean?

[WmsptWx]

1 minute ago, paweather said:

I’m not sure what you mean?

Does he not occasionally pop in?

[paweather]

1 minute ago, WmsptWx said:

Does he not occasionally pop in?

I’m not sure hopefully I had to be off the forum for a while recovering 

[AccuChris]

Nice improvement from the ICON…below is 0z and now 12z 10:1 snowmap



.

[paweather]

12z ICON

[Superstorm]

ICON north.


.

[WmsptWx]

I would take die iKon. 

[pasnownut]

11 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

Nice improvement from the ICON…below is 0z and now 12z 10:1 snowmap



.

Yeah, really like that look.  Nice start to the day eh?

 

edit:  entire state would like that look as 80 northers get some action verbatim

 

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

I would take die iKon. 

you and the entire state of Pa bud.  Lets hope the trend is our friend once again today. 

[pasnownut]

Really surprised by trough axis on nooner Icon, but that is what let this baby climb. 

Lost the E-W look at 500 and broad eastern trough that SLP traverses. Actually its a rather clean and classic look IMO.  

Now....how much faith do we put in it?  Lets see what the rest of the big boys show

[paweather]

12z GFS Hiccup?

[anotherman]

GFS suppressed again.

[2001kx]

WSW issued here for Wed.

 

PAZ004>006-010-011-017-210900-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0001.260121T1700Z-260122T1500Z/
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-
Including the cities of Warren, Clearfield, Bradford, Emporium,
Coudersport, St. Marys, DuBois, and Ridgway
450 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 3 and
  6 inches with locally higher amounts possible.

* WHERE...Cameron, Clearfield, Elk, McKean, Potter, and Warren
  County.

* WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning
  commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A several-hour period of 1 inch per hour
  snowfall rates is possible Wednesday evening, which could result
  in rapidly-deteriorating road conditions across the Watch area.

[pasnownut]

GFS says what MA storm....

healthy case of suppression depression.

 

While we dont like, cant dismiss as many have suggested the cold press may do this.  

 

[pasnownut]

CMC slightly south but still a rather nice look.  Keeps us in a good spot.

[GrandmasterB]

5 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

GFS says what MA storm....

healthy case of suppression depression.

 

While we dont like, cant dismiss as many have suggested the cold press may do this.  

 

Confluence is stronger on the GFS, but what really hurts is the energy in the southwest gets cut off and the phase is nothing like the Euro. You could see that pretty early on in the run. Hopefully the Euro holds. 

[pasnownut]

5 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Confluence is stronger on the GFS, but what really hurts is the energy in the southwest gets cut off and the phase is nothing like the Euro. You could see that pretty early on in the run. Hopefully the Euro holds. 

CMC takes the look of the Euro.  We'd sign....well I would. 

[pasnownut]

CMC also slower and trend looks to be slowing this down a bit 

[pasnownut]

CMC follows euro and pops a secondary for a little back end action.  I'd be giddy w/ what it shows.  

verbatim -30+ hrs of snow.  

[GrandmasterB]

4 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

CMC also slower and trend looks to be slowing this down a bit 

I’d prefer the slower solution as long it means the phase is cleaner and the energy doesn’t get left behind. Confluence was actually stronger on the CMC compared to 0Z, but the phase was cleaner making it a far more amped solution than the GFS.

[GrandmasterB]

Ukie doesn’t exactly agree with the GFS

[pasnownut]

11 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

I’d prefer the slower solution as long it means the phase is cleaner and the energy doesn’t get left behind. Confluence was actually stronger on the CMC compared to 0Z, but the phase was cleaner making it a far more amped solution than the GFS.

Yeah I agree w/ you.  If euro holds this look, I'd think the GFS just had a hiccup, or it's an outlier w/ the flatter progression

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, GrandmasterB said:

Ukie doesn’t exactly agree with the GFS

i almost spit out my lunch.

 

Thanks for that....

 

No really....THANKS for that.  Wowzers

[WmsptWx]

That hole if I couldn't read would piss me off thinking it's a screw zone lol.

[pasnownut]

Little too early to be in the bullseye, so buyer beware.  Pattern is a more stable one, but with a slightly slower ejection out of the SW, it makes me nervous at 5 days out.  If it were 2 days out, i'd feel a bit better.  Something to consider as we move forward.  

[sauss06]

Imagine all the crazy bastards sitting outside watching Hockey next Saturday in Happy valley. 

[canderson]

Verbatim when would this start?

[paweather]

9 minutes ago, canderson said:

Verbatim when would this start?

Late Saturday overnight or Sunday morning