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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

MAG5035
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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Meanwhile on the Tug Hill plateau.... 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1256 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

NYZ006>008-290700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0006.251229T2100Z-260103T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0042.251228T2100Z-251229T1500Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
1256 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM
EST SATURDAY...

How much is expected?

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Jns2183
Jns2183

My brother got my daughter and I , a nephew of his dog. Pure Husky. I had to put my dog down a year ago. He was alive before my daughter was born. He knew I was looking for one because I thought it wa

MAG5035
MAG5035

We have a couple potential events this week. A potent shortwave traversing the Great Lakes Wednesday and another potential wave(s) over the weekend. The low on Wednesday passes north of PA, which will

ChescoWx
ChescoWx

Another 1.0" has fallen here in East Nantmeal since 6am total snow 8.5"  Still some light snow temp down to 26.9

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Voyager

Voyager

Posted
Posted

Seems like tomorrow is going to be a near repeat of last Friday. Mild morning, front blows through, temps crash and wind ramps up. I just hope there's not as many tree branch and powerline problems. I encountered a few road closures and subsequent detours on my last two water loads of the day.

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Jns2183

Jns2183

Posted
Posted

I'm with @canderson here with the wind threat here. The low track is a bit north of ideal but the timing of it bombing out and how it translates down here seems like it opens us up to greater probability of a high end event. Tomorrow any cams around Buffalo showing the lake are going to be something else.

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Jns2183

Jns2183

Posted
Posted
Man, things got quite a bit icy here. Our sidewalk, with residual salt from yesterday morning on it, is complete glare ice.
It never got above freezing up there. I see temps 29-30. Forcast here was 38-40. We got up to 33

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Voyager

Voyager

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

It never got above freezing up there. I see temps 29-30. Forcast here was 38-40. We got up to 33

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Yup. I'm sitting at 30 on the nose right now. It hasn't been above freezing here since 7:20 pm on Christmas Day.

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Jns2183

Jns2183

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Posted

This low here is our 50/50 for our 4sd negative nao It's currently 996. In 24 hours it's 980. 36 hours 976. 48 hours 972.

I would happily take a mix event to get a true miller A with a double phase. I don't even know that last time we had that let alone the white whale that is a triple phase.

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Jns2183

Jns2183

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Anyone have good historical data for the Greenland blocking index (GBI), the Atlantic Ridge index (AR), Polar Cap Height (PCH)? I think with those values I could have some real fun in my data analysis project for this area. I already have the 4 big teleconnection index values daily going back to 1950. Daily weather records for the the complete history of almost every station that had reported at one time or another in about a 6 county area around South Central Pennsylvania

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Jns2183

Jns2183

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This however has been the most worrisome trend since summer. Lots of times it's been even worse with gradients and the southern extent being just south of DC. Seems like we've had to fight to get every mm of preceiptitation this past year in Cumberland county. Carlislewx guy with his 38" can attest to that. Lancaster county I know has areas above 50", probably above 60". I think we have had a real lack of pure coastal storms the past couple years that Cumberland county thrives on. Downsloping has been a brutal component of so many once promising storms. Here is to hoping the new year can shake that up some. 20251228_204333.jpg

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Voyager

Voyager

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Posted

Another day another mid day FROPA. Seems that once a pattern develops, most storms follow it. Nocturnal storms. Four AM start times. Dinner time endings, and so on. While there is some deviation, it seems like storm timing follows a seasonal routine once established.

Or maybe I'm seeing something that isn't there... 

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pawatch

pawatch

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34 degrees this morning. Not sure where I am with rain Totals. Guessing around .20” Rain gauge didn’t really like the freezing stuff.

Deer showed up in the neighbors yard last night. First time since hunting season.

Now I guess wait for the winds. Hope everyone keeps power! 

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Voyager

Voyager

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Didn't get as warm as they said overnight they said it would be in the 40's till 5 am. It was only 37 at that time. 41 now.

Still 33 here. Heard our parking lot and all the well locations are straight up slick ice. Gonna be another fun day... :rolleyes:

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Subliminal87

Subliminal87

Posted
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11 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I’m ready for something like this 12z Euro run for 1/9 to verify.

IMG_1307.png

Last year on 1/10 I was to fly from PHL to Phoenix and was cancelled cause of Charolette getting ice.  
 

this year, I fly 1/9 Harrisburg-Dulles-Orlando to goto Disney world. Really hoping I’m not dealing with cancelled flights on the same days a year later lol. 

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Jns2183

Jns2183

Posted
Posted
Another day another mid day FROPA. Seems that once a pattern develops, most storms follow it. Nocturnal storms. Four AM start times. Dinner time endings, and so on. While there is some deviation, it seems like storm timing follows a seasonal routine once established.
Or maybe I'm seeing something that isn't there... 
There is a seasonal pattern, but I think also it depends on cold vs warm front, cold air damming, boundary layer stability, effects of mountains. Lots of times fronts get held up until mid day heating in some areas and that correlates to passage time here.

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Jns2183

Jns2183

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I see winds up around 4000 feet are 80mph+ with this front passage. Now to see how much this translate to the ground. I suppose it will depend on how well it can mix down. Right now the air is this soup, foggy, stale, still.

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Mount Joy Snowman

Mount Joy Snowman

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the future....

  • HGEFS (Hybrid-GEFS): A pioneering, hybrid "grand ensemble" that combines the new AI-based AIGEFS (above) with NOAA’s flagship ensemble model, the Global Ensemble Forecast System. Initial testing shows that this model, a first-of-its kind approach for an operational weather center, consistently outperforms both the AI-only and physics-only ensemble systems.

  • HGEFS — the most innovative application in the new suite. The HGEFS is a 62-member "grand ensemble" created by combining the 31 members of the physical GEFS with the 31 members of the AI-based AIGEFS.

  • Performance: by combining two different modeling systems (one physics-based, one AI-based), the HGEFS creates a larger, more robust ensemble that more effectively represents forecast uncertainty. As a result, the HGEFS consistently outperforms both the GEFS and the AIGEFS across most major verification metrics.
  • A NOAA first: to our knowledge, NOAA is the first organization in the world to implement such a hybrid physical-AI ensemble system.
  • Area for future improvement: NOAA continues its work to improve HGEFS’s hurricane intensity forecasts.
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canderson

canderson

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

I see winds up around 4000 feet are 80mph+ with this front passage. Now to see how much this translate to the ground. I suppose it will depend on how well it can mix down. Right now the air is this soup, foggy, stale, still.

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Narrator: they’ll mix very well down 

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