Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Itstrainingtime]

19 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Meanwhile on the Tug Hill plateau....

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1256 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

NYZ006>008-290700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0006.251229T2100Z-260103T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0042.251228T2100Z-251229T1500Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
1256 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM
EST SATURDAY...

How much is expected?

[Jns2183]

How much is expected?

1-2 feet winds guesting up to 55mph

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[Jns2183]

Worst winds here seem to be overnight Monday

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[Voyager]

Seems like tomorrow is going to be a near repeat of last Friday. Mild morning, front blows through, temps crash and wind ramps up. I just hope there's not as many tree branch and powerline problems. I encountered a few road closures and subsequent detours on my last two water loads of the day.

[canderson]

We are at Troegs for dinner and it’s just a raw miserable day. But half of Hershey is here for some reason. 

[Jns2183]

We are at Troegs for dinner and it’s just a raw miserable day. But half of Hershey is here for some reason. 

Because a day like this is a beer drinking day

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[Jns2183]

I'm with @canderson here with the wind threat here. The low track is a bit north of ideal but the timing of it bombing out and how it translates down here seems like it opens us up to greater probability of a high end event. Tomorrow any cams around Buffalo showing the lake are going to be something else.

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[Jns2183]

Also, I feel horrible for Iowa State fans. This week has been basically a red wedding for them. They've lost everyone but at 6 positions

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[Voyager]

Man, things got quite a bit icy here. Our sidewalk, with residual salt from yesterday morning on it, is complete glare ice.

[Jns2183]

Man, things got quite a bit icy here. Our sidewalk, with residual salt from yesterday morning on it, is complete glare ice.

It never got above freezing up there. I see temps 29-30. Forcast here was 38-40. We got up to 33

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[Voyager]

4 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

It never got above freezing up there. I see temps 29-30. Forcast here was 38-40. We got up to 33

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Yup. I'm sitting at 30 on the nose right now. It hasn't been above freezing here since 7:20 pm on Christmas Day.

[canderson]

34 today here - same as yesterday. 

[Jns2183]

This low here is our 50/50 for our 4sd negative nao It's currently 996. In 24 hours it's 980. 36 hours 976. 48 hours 972.

I would happily take a mix event to get a true miller A with a double phase. I don't even know that last time we had that let alone the white whale that is a triple phase.

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[Jns2183]

Anyone have good historical data for the Greenland blocking index (GBI), the Atlantic Ridge index (AR), Polar Cap Height (PCH)? I think with those values I could have some real fun in my data analysis project for this area. I already have the 4 big teleconnection index values daily going back to 1950. Daily weather records for the the complete history of almost every station that had reported at one time or another in about a 6 county area around South Central Pennsylvania

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[Jns2183]

This however has been the most worrisome trend since summer. Lots of times it's been even worse with gradients and the southern extent being just south of DC. Seems like we've had to fight to get every mm of preceiptitation this past year in Cumberland county. Carlislewx guy with his 38" can attest to that. Lancaster county I know has areas above 50", probably above 60". I think we have had a real lack of pure coastal storms the past couple years that Cumberland county thrives on. Downsloping has been a brutal component of so many once promising storms. Here is to hoping the new year can shake that up some.

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[Blizzard of 93]

I’m ready for something like this 12z Euro run for 1/9 to verify.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 18z Euro still has the New Year’s Day clipper that gives many of us 1 to 2 inches of potential snow.