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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs


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19 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Meanwhile on the Tug Hill plateau....

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1256 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

NYZ006>008-290700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0006.251229T2100Z-260103T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0042.251228T2100Z-251229T1500Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
1256 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM
EST SATURDAY...

How much is expected?

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Seems like tomorrow is going to be a near repeat of last Friday. Mild morning, front blows through, temps crash and wind ramps up. I just hope there's not as many tree branch and powerline problems. I encountered a few road closures and subsequent detours on my last two water loads of the day.

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I'm with @canderson here with the wind threat here. The low track is a bit north of ideal but the timing of it bombing out and how it translates down here seems like it opens us up to greater probability of a high end event. Tomorrow any cams around Buffalo showing the lake are going to be something else.

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4 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

It never got above freezing up there. I see temps 29-30. Forcast here was 38-40. We got up to 33

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Yup. I'm sitting at 30 on the nose right now. It hasn't been above freezing here since 7:20 pm on Christmas Day.

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This low here is our 4sd negative nao. It's currently 996. In 24 hours it's 980. 36 hours 976. 48 hours 972.

I would happily take a mix event to get a true miller A with a double phase. I don't even know that last time we had that let alone the white whale that is a triple phase.

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