Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Voyager]

Started here about 15 minutes ago. Straight to heavy pingers. No snow. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Heavier band looks to be approaching the western LSV in Adams, Cumberland & Perry on the march due east.

[Voyager]

Actually, it's mixed sleet/ freezing rain as there's already a slight ice accretion on my chain link fence rails.

Temp is 25 degrees.

[Jns2183]

Ohh yeah, wasn't the heaviest precipitation supposed to be between  4 to 7 pm? With the dry slot we may not have anything fall again till 530 6

Why dry slot? It's freezing drizzle here I saw one car spin out already? This was never supposed to be a single blob. Did you even look at simulated radar the past few days? Dry slots also usually only happen in miller b or miller A with a defined ccb. This is a clipper

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[Ruin]

7 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Why dry slot? It's freezing drizzle here I saw one car spin out already? This was never supposed to be a single blob. Did you even look at simulated radar the past few days? Dry slots also usually only happen in miller b or miller A with a defined ccb. This is a clipper

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I was just outside walking the dog, literally.It's doing nothing somewhere.The clouds are even getting a little bit brighter outside.Not too many slick spots.I mean, the cars, the metal railings, have a little bit of a glaze on it, but the grass isn't even crunchy or icy

[Jns2183]

I was just outside walking the dog, literally.It's doing nothing somewhere.The clouds are even getting a little bit brighter outside.Not too many slick spots.I mean, the cars, the metal railings, have a little bit of a glaze on it, but the grass isn't even crunchy or icy

Wherever you are, it seems more in line with weather in DC than Harrisburg. I would follow forecasts for them instead of Harrisburg

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[Mount Joy Snowman]

28/22 with everything already iced over and what appears to be a heavy batch of sleet on the doorstep. 

[canderson]

Sleeting hard 

[Jns2183]

Sleeting hard 

I have nothing but freezing rain. Car is encased in ice now

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[AMDEW80]

Near Wellsboro, started off around 2pm with a few mangled flakes but almost all pingers.  Now, a heavy mixture of mostly sleet and  some freezing rain, VERY icy 20 degrees.  

[canderson]

8 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I have nothing but freezing rain. Car is encased in ice now

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It flips back and forth - zr when light and sleet when anything of substance 

[Jns2183]

Just got home. Sidewalks and walkway are sheet of ice. Yard is halfway there. Roads finally started caving last mile home. Happy to be home. Far far too many people are out and about at shopping areas currently. Just heard 283 has a major multi vehicle accident

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[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, AccuChris said:

Ongoing mix of sleet and freezing rain in Lebanon. Temp down to 28


.

Ok Joes 4 n 1 brethren....Love that friggin grill, stick smokin awesome built meat cooker.

I've had mine 10 yrs old and goin strong.  stick smokin took me a bit to get used to, but i'm getting there.  My Green Mtn pellet does a nice job, and is easier to cook on, but man, you just can NOT beat the flaver a stick burner puts out.  Enjoy.

 

Oh.... and ice glaze w/ zr/ip mix earlier.  In a lull now but happy hour looks less happy for any on the roads.  Be safe and happy holidays all.

 

[MAG5035]

Glaze update from about 20 min ago. Been all light freezing rain for a little bit with some heavier stuff on the doorstep, which is likely the steadier stuff that ends up in the Sus Valley closer to 0z per the HRRR’s take. Temp here has been floating between 27-28ºF so ice is having no trouble accumulating on the non treated surfaces. Lot of accidents being reported around town and on I-99 this afternoon. 

[AccuChris]

Ok Joes 4 n 1 brethren....Love that friggin grill, stick smokin awesome built meat cooker.
I've had mine 10 yrs old and goin strong.  stick smokin took me a bit to get used to, but i'm getting there.  My Green Mtn pellet does a nice job, and is easier to cook on, but man, you just can NOT beat the flaver a stick burner puts out.  Enjoy.
 
Oh.... and ice glaze w/ zr/ip mix earlier.  In a lull now but happy hour looks less happy for any on the roads.  Be safe and happy holidays all.
 

This grill is my work horse year-round! Love it!


.

[pasnownut]

7 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

This grill is my work horse year-round! Love it!


.

its mine as well.  

Steady pingers have commenced.  Winter time version of pingers on a tin roof is much better than summer time rain on same roof.

[Jns2183]

It's not new years but what the heck. I'm thankful for all who post here regardless of my agreement with them. This little forum provides me a vibrant joy year round. The disagreements provide a wonderful spice to life and I cherish them. I get to be a little weather nerd and I'm happy for that. Thank you all for participating in this little space.

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[Summit Snow]

Have over achieved so far this year and have a had a great start to winter so was do for an under. Precipitation came in as a wall of sleet and snow and is 80/20 sleet which wasn't even mentioned in the higher elevations this far NE until this AM and even then it was to be a gradual mix.

Current temp is 18 with heavy sleet currently. 

[Voyager]

Two degree temp drop since my last post. Down to 23 now.

[Ruin]

Temp 33.2

[Ruin]

1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

Wherever you are, it seems more in line with weather in DC than Harrisburg. I would follow forecasts for them instead of Harrisburg

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Live right outside harrisburg 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

9 minutes ago, Summit Snow said:

Have over achieved so far this year and have a had a great start to winter so was do for an under. Precipitation came in as a wall of sleet and snow and is 80/20 sleet which wasn't even mentioned in the higher elevations this far NE until this AM and even then it was to be a gradual mix.

Current temp is 18 with heavy sleet currently. 

Damn, that’s that mid level warmth over performing as we talked about. Mid level warmth and low level cold consistently over perform.  

[canderson]

8 minutes ago, Ruin said:

Temp 33.2

It’s 29 at my house in the city. 

[Voyager]

14 minutes ago, Summit Snow said:

Have over achieved so far this year and have a had a great start to winter so was do for an under. Precipitation came in as a wall of sleet and snow and is 80/20 sleet which wasn't even mentioned in the higher elevations this far NE until this AM and even then it was to be a gradual mix.

Current temp is 18 with heavy sleet currently. 

For me, I wasn't expecting much snow, even before the models trended the wrong direction. I know that we almost always flip as mid level warmth is under modeled. You seemed to be sitting pretty up that way, though.

[paweather]

7 minutes ago, Ruin said:

Live right outside harrisburg 

You live in a heat dome 28 here

[Itstrainingtime]

9 minutes ago, Ruin said:

Temp 33.2

I hate to do this. Like, I never do this -

I'm having a hard time believing your temp. Just about everyone in this sub is in the 20s right now. I'm sitting at 27.5, which seems suspiciously colder than you in this type of setup. I'm wondering if you have a sensor issue.

[Itstrainingtime]

6 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Damn, that’s that mid level warmth over performing as we talked about. Mid level warmth and low level cold consistently over perform.  

And in these setups storms often take a last minute 50 mile jog north. 

[MAG5035]

44 minutes ago, Summit Snow said:

Have over achieved so far this year and have a had a great start to winter so was do for an under. Precipitation came in as a wall of sleet and snow and is 80/20 sleet which wasn't even mentioned in the higher elevations this far NE until this AM and even then it was to be a gradual mix.

Current temp is 18 with heavy sleet currently. 

I’ve been wondering what this was going to end up doing in NE PA in terms of snow and if the sleet was going to make inroads into the areas that were supposed to get the heaviest snow out of this. The biggest warm push aloft with this system is actually up above 850mb between there and the 700mb level.. or roughly 7-8k feet or so aloft. Looking at the near term/high res model soundings, the HRRR appears to be too cold (modelling the whole column below freezing at KAVP around this current time) while the 3k NAM seems to be more accurate to your obs with the warm nose above freezing centering just above the 800mb level.

3k NAM sounding (KAVP)

 

[pasnownut]

31 minutes ago, Ruin said:

Temp 33.2

28 is what i've seen on several sites for harrisburg.  good try tho

[pasnownut]

21 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I hate to do this. Like, I never do this -

I'm having a hard time believing your temp. Just about everyone in this sub is in the 20s right now. I'm sitting at 27.5, which seems suspiciously colder than you in this type of setup. I'm wondering if you have a sensor issue.

I just checked.  all local zips in region are at 28