Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Mount Joy Snowman]

2 hours ago, canderson said:

The Susquehanna has a significant amount of ice today. 

Sure does. Can’t remember many years riding the train when I’ve spotted it this widespread this early. 

[Jns2183]

Time to Chanel a great winter

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[WmsptWx]

Sounds about right.

[mahantango#1]

[Voyager]

9 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

I like the last part that says warming trend. Just wish there weren't question marks after it.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 26 and nothing reaching the ground, despite some light snowfall returns and a nearly saturated atmosphere. Also, yesterday morning my low actually dropped to 10. Have a good one, everyone. 

[mahantango#1]

23 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I like the last part that says warming trend. Just wish there weren't question marks after it.

Sounds like uncertainty as if will it happen at all. Stay tuned.

[mahantango#1]

[Voyager]

15 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Sounds like uncertainty as if will it happen at all. Stay tuned.

Yeah, I know. As has been mentioned at times in this, and other forums, it seems that lately any modeled warm ups get muted over time.

[mahantango#1]

3 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Yeah, I know. As has been mentioned at times in this, and other forums, it seems that lately any modeled warm ups get muted over time.

Hoping next summer features at least 2 weeks straight mid 90's with dp in mid 70's.

[Voyager]

47 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Hoping next summer features at least 2 weeks straight mid 90's with dp in mid 70's.

I wish. Many say we don't do snowstorms and winter like we used to. There is truth to that, but we also don't do heat waves like we used to either.

[mahantango#1]

1 minute ago, Voyager said:

I wish. Many say we don't do snowstorms and winter like we used to. There is truth to that, but we also don't do heat waves like we used to either.

Truth, somewhere along the way it all went wrong.

[Blizzard of 93]

6z Euro is looking good for the late Saturday night into Sunday chance of an Advisory type of potential.

[mahantango#1]

JB this morning:

While the MJO is shown in the charts to be in the null phase. The current way we get there is has a strong vv pulse coming through the Indian Ocean that is associated with phases 3/4. and those are very warm in December. 

And this looks correct to me. But its coming and going fast and that cold is building in Canada. It collapses and in the 10-15 we are back to a phase 8/1 look. 

So I would expect a rapid response back the other way after that

 

So I think Paul Roundy has a good idea here and after I got a chance to look, I agree with his assessment

[WmsptWx]

Yeah looks like the warm up is going to be brief and maybe not all that noticable? Like MAG suggested yesterday, it doesn't look like Torch City. 

[Itstrainingtime]

2 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of 26 and nothing reaching the ground, despite some light snowfall returns and a nearly saturated atmosphere. Also, yesterday morning my low actually dropped to 10. Have a good one, everyone. 

I left for work at 8:30 (don't judge, I have a late meeting today) and it was 34 with a few sprinkles falling at the house. 

My low yesterday morning was 12. 

[WmsptWx]

I drove up to Philipsburg and back this morning from Three Springs and it was a consistent 25°F on the ride up and temps got to about 29°F currently. 

Cold rain coming today. Beautiful.

[ChescoWx]

We have seen below normal temperatures every day with the exception of one day since Thanksgiving Day. This pattern looks to continue for at least the next week. We warm enough today that except for areas in Northern Berks and Lehigh counties we should see mainly rain showers. We turn colder tomorrow and will see some light snow chances both Friday night and again during the day on Sunday.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

So sure enough, as soon as I got on the train in Mount Joy this morning some light mix started falling.  Can any of my Lancaster peeps confirm that there was a period of very light wintry precip this morning?

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

So sure enough, as soon as I got on the train in Mount Joy this morning some light mix started falling.  Can any of my Lancaster peeps confirm that there was a period of very light wintry precip this morning?

I can't, I only saw some very light rain/sprinkles as I mentioned earlier.

Also - there is ZERO ice on the river from Columbia the entire way down to TH. Nothing. Not even on the banks. I was surprised given the reports up in the Harrisburg area. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Well...yuck:

@MUweather

I'm becoming convinced that this persistently cold pattern ends by the middle of next week. The MJO may just stay in the COD & have very little influence on the pattern over the next few weeks. The SPV will also rapidly strengthen after mid-month & remain strong in Jan. Additionally, ensemble models show a major retraction of the Pacific Jet between ~Dec 17-22. As a result, a massive Bering Sea ridge develops & stays in place for weeks. The Bering Sea ridge often precedes an eastern U.S. warmup & flareup of the Southeast Ridge by 6-10 days.

[AccuChris]

Flakes are flying in Lebanon presently


.

[WmsptWx]

29 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Well...yuck:

@MUweather

I'm becoming convinced that this persistently cold pattern ends by the middle of next week. The MJO may just stay in the COD & have very little influence on the pattern over the next few weeks. The SPV will also rapidly strengthen after mid-month & remain strong in Jan. Additionally, ensemble models show a major retraction of the Pacific Jet between ~Dec 17-22. As a result, a massive Bering Sea ridge develops & stays in place for weeks. The Bering Sea ridge often precedes an eastern U.S. warmup & flareup of the Southeast Ridge by 6-10 days.

This would verify a lot of "starts cold, warms up" predictions. 

[Voyager]

Unloading in Allentown, and it's up to 44 degrees. Finally a day where nothing's frozen on the trailer!

[anotherman]

Well...yuck:
@MUweather
I'm becoming convinced that this persistently cold pattern ends by the middle of next week. The MJO may just stay in the COD & have very little influence on the pattern over the next few weeks. The SPV will also rapidly strengthen after mid-month & remain strong in Jan. Additionally, ensemble models show a major retraction of the Pacific Jet between ~Dec 17-22. As a result, a massive Bering Sea ridge develops & stays in place for weeks. The Bering Sea ridge often precedes an eastern U.S. warmup & flareup of the Southeast Ridge by 6-10 days.

I’m sure he’s thrilled.