The Monday wintry event potential (12/8/25)

[BornAgain13]

38 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

If you take a blended approach I think it's not too far off. Especially after looking at the new Nam and Hi Res Nam. 

Looks nothing like the global though. All the global are south of the nam and hrrr. Just something to watch. Probably somewhere between the 2 is a good spot!

[BornAgain13]

Highly unlikely to happen but a 10% chance it does. High bust potential either way with this

[BornAgain13]

0z HRW-WRF 

[BornAgain13]

FV3

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

FV3

GFS and its nest has been remarkably rock steady. Feel like it has led the way here. 

[SEwakenosnowforu]

Greg Fishel seems confident it will snow in the "triangle" tomorrow. However, he does not really break what that means. I mean...I know what that means...nothing for south Wake. But he said with confidence 1/2 inch for the triangle! Lol. Per facebook

[BornAgain13]

1 of the Locals in Roanoke sounding the alarm and raising everyone's totals... @Buddy1987

[kvegas-wx]

Just need some moisture here in the Triad.  Already 2° colder than modeled at 33°.  We could sneak down to freezing soon with no cloud cover.  Don't you Virginia boys wreck a forum party!

[Disc]

This has been a rather tough forecast, mainly due to the fact that this will be developing directly overhead. However, it's hard to ignore model trends across southern Virginia and the NC mtns. I am now beginning to wonder if this will just begin as snow for most, considering the current observations are running a bit colder than what guidance has been showing. If it does begin as snow, I expect some of the higher totals to verify. One thing I have noticed is somewhere across central/southern VA, some mesoscale banding will likely produce some efficient snowfall rates. This is noted in a band of stronger FGEN running west to east as pictured below. Rates within this zone will likely see 1in/hr at times.

 

NBM probabilistic guidance supports this with an area of higher probabilities across southern VA/NW NC. 

Based on 01z NBM of 24hr snowfall greater than 4.0 inches is now at:

DAN: 60%

ROA: 80%

LYH: 80%

TNB: 70%

A very sharp drop in probabilities occur along and south of the VA/NC border. However, probabilities for at least 1.0 inch is around:

GSO: 60%

RAH: 40% 

 

[Buddy1987]

Rain and 35… temp rose a good 3 degrees overnight.. ugh 

[olafminesaw]

Yeah, dewpoint at 36 is not ideal. With the heavier precip expected to stay to the north, I would be a little surprised if we got even a dusting at this point (still should get some light snow this afternoon to set the mood at least)

[eyewall]

The snow hits behind the front so what is happening ahead of it is not as important. Most areas probably will start as some rain before changing over. The previous event was WAA this one is more anafrontal with cold air feeding in (Cold Air Advection).

[kvegas-wx]

We're going to see token flurries as this system pulls away and we wave goodbye.  Temps shot up to 38 with DPs to match.

[WestCentrlVA]

35 currently with a dewpoint of 32. Still think a great event is on tap. Enjoy and be safe all. 

[BornAgain13]

7 minutes ago, WestCentrlVA said:

35 currently with a dewpoint of 32. Still think a great event is on tap. Enjoy and be safe all. 

Its coming once this front moves through. Temp and dew point about to drop. Hope you do well man!

[BornAgain13]

Light rain switching to snow right now. Temp beginning to drop!

[WestCentrlVA]

11 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Its coming once this front moves through. Temp and dew point about to drop. Hope you do well man!

Thanks, same to you. It's starting to snow here as well. Good luck to you and everyone. 

[Buddy1987]

Moderate snow. Flipped on a dime here. Temp down to 33

[BornAgain13]

All snow here now. Temp continues to drop 

[Buddy1987]

Well that escalated quickly lol.. within the last 10 minutes elevated surfaces have caved rapidly. Gonna be beautiful outside in a little bit. 

[landof2rivers]

I was optimistic last night coming home from Pfafftown as the temp dropped and was 32* when I got home. I checked a few times overnight and the temp went to 34*, then 35* and now it’s 36*. We have light rain and I’m hoping the cold air north of Dville makes its way here. 

[SUNYGRAD]

Can see some colder air move in as thickness drops into mountains and Piedmont.  SPC Hourly Mesoscale Analysis

[NorthHillsWx]

37, 37 here. Don’t think there’s been a northern trend or really much movement at all in models, just need the precip. The heavier totals in VA are from more precip, not more northern movement of the system. Precip amounts have increased south of there into NC as well. Models have generally been ticking up over the last 3 days especially in Virginia where a legit storm looks likely. Here in NC it’s all about how much precip gets in after the front. Current advisory outline looks correct. I expect 1/2” to 1” for the advisory area increasing to 2-3” for the border. Travel issue should be limited until this evening but overnight/tomorrow morning roads are going to be terrible area wide with the flash freeze coming this evening regardless of whether snow accumulates in your area.