The Monday wintry event potential (12/8/25)

[BornAgain13]

38 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

If you take a blended approach I think it's not too far off. Especially after looking at the new Nam and Hi Res Nam. 

Looks nothing like the global though. All the global are south of the nam and hrrr. Just something to watch. Probably somewhere between the 2 is a good spot!

[BornAgain13]

Highly unlikely to happen but a 10% chance it does. High bust potential either way with this

[BornAgain13]

0z HRW-WRF 

[BornAgain13]

FV3

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

FV3

GFS and its nest has been remarkably rock steady. Feel like it has led the way here. 

[SEwakenosnowforu]

Greg Fishel seems confident it will snow in the "triangle" tomorrow. However, he does not really break what that means. I mean...I know what that means...nothing for south Wake. But he said with confidence 1/2 inch for the triangle! Lol. Per facebook

[BornAgain13]

1 of the Locals in Roanoke sounding the alarm and raising everyone's totals... @Buddy1987

[kvegas-wx]

Just need some moisture here in the Triad.  Already 2° colder than modeled at 33°.  We could sneak down to freezing soon with no cloud cover.  Don't you Virginia boys wreck a forum party!

[Disc]

This has been a rather tough forecast, mainly due to the fact that this will be developing directly overhead. However, it's hard to ignore model trends across southern Virginia and the NC mtns. I am now beginning to wonder if this will just begin as snow for most, considering the current observations are running a bit colder than what guidance has been showing. If it does begin as snow, I expect some of the higher totals to verify. One thing I have noticed is somewhere across central/southern VA, some mesoscale banding will likely produce some efficient snowfall rates. This is noted in a band of stronger FGEN running west to east as pictured below. Rates within this zone will likely see 1in/hr at times.

 

NBM probabilistic guidance supports this with an area of higher probabilities across southern VA/NW NC. 

Based on 01z NBM of 24hr snowfall greater than 4.0 inches is now at:

DAN: 60%

ROA: 80%

LYH: 80%

TNB: 70%

A very sharp drop in probabilities occur along and south of the VA/NC border. However, probabilities for at least 1.0 inch is around:

GSO: 60%

RAH: 40%