E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[MJO812]

Eps

[Duca892]

I was NOT expecting to wake up to the EURO saying that we are back 

[Ralph Wiggum]

39 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

I was NOT expecting to wake up to the EURO saying that we are back 

CMC supports it fwiw, tho not quite as intense but similar idea. Has actually been very consistent.

[Duca892]

GFS seems like it remains a no go

[Mikeymac5306]

1 hour ago, Duca892 said:

GFS seems like it remains a no go

GFS looks like it wants to be done with winter entirely. 

[Duca892]

1 minute ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

GFS looks like it wants to be done with winter entirely. 

Literally thought the same thing. GFS straight up punts the next 16 days heading into March lol

[MickeyTim6533]

hearing 6z euro says rain

[Heisy]

6z euro is warmer because the bowling ball is not in 50/50 esque location anymore.

Look at it vs cmc for example.

EPS also trended that way, more of a setup for NW now since confluence pattern isn’t ideal anymore (if it’s right)

[Voyager]

9 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

GFS looks like it wants to be done with winter entirely. 

Sounds like me and the GFS are on the same page.

[Heisy]

hearing 6z euro says rain

See post above. Euro h5 track and phase is good, but the confluence pattern trended poorly unfortunately

[MickeyTim6533]

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

See post above. Euro h5 track and phase is good, but the confluence pattern trended poorly unfortunately

I just don't think this one is going to do it. is there really any evidence for a snow storm?

 

[MickeyTim6533]

13 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

I just don't think this one is going to do it. is there really any evidence for a snow storm?

 

[MickeyTim6533]

[The Iceman]

On 2/9/2026 at 1:39 PM, The Iceman said:

Ensembles in this range over any OP. However, ensembles argue more for a Euro AI solution imo. I don't see this one cutting if that ridging on the 500 MB is legit over NE canada. Now with that you risk a sheared out mess or squash. Cold air is also marginal. I don't know, there's a lot going against it. Seems like blocking either eases up north and we rain or it doesn't and it's squashed south again. I'd rather it cut than be squashed tbh, there would definitely be flooding issues next weekend if something like the euro OP plays out.

Thoughts unchanged. This one will take a miracle to snow outside of n and w.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

I just don't think this one is going to do it. is there really any evidence for a snow storm?

 

Depends on the track 

[MickeyTim6533]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Depends on the track 

thanks. still trying to learn things here.

 

[ChescoWx]

Today will be our mildest day since January 22nd with temps well into the 30's to near 40 degrees. Which in reality is not too far from average for the date. We chill back to near freezing for highs both Thursday and Friday before we turn a bit milder by the weekend. There is still some potential for snow toward Sunday evening as a couple models have moved a little closer toward that solution.

[Duca892]

Look i know the GFS has been god awful... but i think something has to be said how it is the one model (i think) that is a consistent miss run after run 

[MickeyTim6533]

4 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Look i know the GFS has been god awful... but i think something has to be said how it is the one model (i think) that is a consistent miss run after run 

be careful. you might get destroyed for voicing this. lol

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Look i know the GFS has been god awful... but i think something has to be said how it is the one model (i think) that is a consistent miss run after run 

Its alone right now

[ChescoWx]

If an event was to happen I suspect with very marginal temperatures this very well could be an elevation driven event....

[Birds~69]

Ain’t going to lie., not  too thrilled About the future unless I’m missing something….

Winter grade as of now: B

36f

[ChescoWx]

Winter grade through today for a winter weather enthusiast a solid A IMHO.....Well below normal temps / above normal snowfall / record below 32 max streak / Top 20 consecutive snowcover streak

[LVblizzard]

45 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Look i know the GFS has been god awful... but i think something has to be said how it is the one model (i think) that is a consistent miss run after run 

When the GFS is on its own, it’s wrong more often than not.

[Birds~69]

17 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Winter grade through today for a winter weather enthusiast a solid A IMHO.....Well below normal temps / above normal snowfall / record below 32 max streak / Top 20 consecutive snowcover streak

Man oh man, I wish you were my teacher in grade/high school. Even the slightly above average students would receive  an A which they didn’t earn…

36f

[Albedoman]

13 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Man oh man, I wish you were my teacher in grade/high school. Even the slightly above average students would receive  an A which they didn’t earn…

36f

The winter deserves an A-  with a big the help of a huge   class curve given by the teacher based on all of the misses the last three weeks with potential storms. Its like we have three  bad tests of potential winter storms and the teacher is throwing them out to raise the average class scores to achieve an A- with the cold temps and snow cover. lol

[Duca892]

Next biggest GFS run of the season 

[MickeyTim6533]

15 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Next biggest GFS run of the season 

[Heisy]

End of the 12z rgem vs 6z euro.

Note how the euro has the northern stream more angled to drop in and phase. No other model is really showing this. The rgem has a stronger southern vort but we really need the N/S to help this thing.

Tough event for models, euro hasn’t been consistent hard to trust it

[Duca892]

GFS steadfast with a nothingburger