E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[RedSky]

I think a decent enough thaw period works in the third week of February before cold reloads

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Drought guy is going to end up with a 3-week out Nostradamus-type snowstorm call for the burbs next weekend. Now the euro has it too.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Will the folks who stated winter is over (in the midst of the coldest outbreak in decades mind you), please raise your hands and immediately go to the back of the class. 

[Voyager]

14 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Unfortunately yes

3 polar vortex disrupting CME's in November, December and start of February with one of the top active ending solar cycles since the Carrington event. This could be a one in 500 year or more occurrence. Historic stuff studies will be done.

 

 

How does all this correlate to sensible weather?

[JTA66]

1 hour ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Never! I will take 100-degree weather over this any day! Even fighting fire. 

Not being a firefighter, I will take your word for it.

I’m just a cold weather person. If I had my way, the temp would never get above 64F and the dews never out of the 50’s.

So jealous seeing old people walking around in sweaters in August while we’re under excessive heat warnings. Another reason I’m looking forward to becoming a cranky old man. 

[JTA66]

33 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Unfortunately yes

3 polar vortex disrupting CME's in November, December and start of February with one of the top active ending solar cycles since the Carrington event. This could be a one in 500 year or more occurrence. Historic stuff studies will be done.

 

 

How much for Philly?

[Birds~69]

20 minutes ago, Voyager said:

How does all this correlate to sensible weather?

Hopefully it means a continued cold winter which will extend well into late Spring followed by double digit below normal temps during Summer with clouds and rain most of time...

14f

[Duca892]

Just checking GFS 12Z back on for next week??

[RedSky]

44 minutes ago, Voyager said:

How does all this correlate to sensible weather?

Mostly below normal, would be surprised if at least one more PV intrusion doesn't take place

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Drought guy is going to end up with a 3-week out Nostradamus-type snowstorm call for the burbs next weekend. Now the euro has it too.

Eps on board

[Voyager]

24 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Mostly below normal, would be surprised if at least one more PV intrusion doesn't take place

Good God. I really need to move somewhere permanently warm. I can somewhat take an average winter. This I simply cannot.

[Voyager]

34 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Mostly below normal, would be surprised if at least one more PV intrusion doesn't take place

Actually, I appreciate your honest response, but it just ruined my birthday, and yes, I might need some mental help soon. I could have stayed in Arizona after my mom passed, in a beautiful ranch duplex, in a suburb of Phoenix, but I've been told over and over by the wife that if I did that, our marriage would be over. So I sold, and back to PA I came. And now look at me. A borderline ranting lunatic because of the excessive cold, which I hate with an unbridled passion.

Like I said, I can handle normal eastern PA winters, with cold periods interrupted by moderations and thaws. This I can't. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, Voyager said:

How does all this correlate to sensible weather?

Don't listen to them. When people say that the cold will never end, you know the opposite is going to happen, and cold pattern is nearing this end. Look at what happened when people on AccuWeather, in early March 2015, were saying that April and May 2015 will be colder. April ended up above average, and May was at or near record warmth.

Expect March to finish with above average temperatures, and April to be a Top 10 warmest month.

The only way for the cold pattern to continue is if the sun is replaced with a smaller star. (Not going to happen.)

[RedSky]

1 hour ago, Voyager said:

Actually, I appreciate your honest response, but it just ruined my birthday, and yes, I might need some mental help soon. I could have stayed in Arizona after my mom passed, in a beautiful ranch duplex, in a suburb of Phoenix, but I've been told over and over by the wife that if I did that, our marriage would be over. So I sold, and back to PA I came. And now look at me. A borderline ranting lunatic because of the excessive cold, which I hate with an unbridled passion.

Like I said, I can handle normal eastern PA winters, with cold periods interrupted by moderations and thaws. This I can't. 

With you all the way my plans and such have been shutdown by this historic winter. Went into it believing the well thought out mild below normal snow outlooks.

Hey man Happy Birththday

[RedSky]

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Drought guy is going to end up with a 3-week out Nostradamus-type snowstorm call for the burbs next weekend. Now the euro has it too.

Euro is 2" snow to sleet orama freezing rain back to sleet snow

Keeping ground white into May?

[RedSky]

The next arctic push in two weeks already becoming apparent on guidance

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Drought guy is going to end up with a 3-week out Nostradamus-type snowstorm call for the burbs next weekend. Now the euro has it too.

Who is the drought guy? Lol

[KamuSnow]

11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Who is the drought guy? Lol

Aka Ice Jam guy, does that help?

[RedSky]

6 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Aka Ice Jam guy, does that help?

Also flood guy and drift guy

[KamuSnow]

4 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Also flood guy and drift guy

Nostroalbedomus?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

36 minutes ago, RedSky said:

The next arctic push in two weeks already becoming apparent on guidance

I see it ending during the final days of February or the first days of March. After that, there will be a pattern change: 

[Duca892]

The run to run changes for a possible storm this weekend on the GFS are absolutely laughable. Now the GFS crushes it south to the point there is 0 precipitation from it lmfao 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Don't listen to them. When people say that the cold will never end, you know the opposite is going to happen, and cold pattern is nearing this end. Look at what happened when people on AccuWeather, in early March 2015, were saying that April and May 2015 will be colder. April ended up above average, and May was at or near record warmth.

Expect March to finish with above average temperatures, and April to be a Top 10 warmest month.

The only way for the cold pattern to continue is if the sun is replaced with a smaller star. (Not going to happen.)

Of course it will end eventually. But last week after I posted that Hurricane Schwartz thinks winter will linger later this year you said that means the opposite and here we are at 15F at 5pm about a week later. So sure, you can turn your nose to the science and the forecasts or you can just accept that we are having a long harsh winter. It will eventually end, birds will chirp, life will go on, and we will be complaining about 7 days straight of heat indices of 110+ and sky-high electric bills from the AC.

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

The run to run changes for a possible storm this weekend on the GFS are absolutely laughable. Now the GFS crushes it south to the point there is 0 precipitation from it lmfao 

Awaiting the gefs ensembles, but until then, the signal across the other recent ens families looks fairly strong to me:

 

[JTA66]

I’m just a weenie, so much of this discussion is over my head. But let’s see if I have the basic gist…

As the season progresses and daylight increases and the sun angle rises and spring approaches, it’s gonna warm up?

MIND

BLOWN!!

[PhiEaglesfan712]

24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Of course it will end eventually. But last week after I posted that Hurricane Schwartz thinks winter will linger later this year you said that means the opposite and here we are at 15F at 5pm about a week later. So sure, you can turn your nose to the science and the forecasts or you can just accept that we are having a long harsh winter. It will eventually end, birds will chirp, life will go on, and we will be complaining about 7 days straight of heat indices of 110+ and sky-high electric bills from the AC.

It's only February 8. I never said the cold would just suddenly disappear. Weather doesn't work on the flip of the switch. I said the colder than average weather would be coming to an end in the final days of February or the first days of March. That's still ~3 weeks from now. There is still time to enjoy the cold weather. I'm not so sure you'll get that opportunity next month.

Besides, long and harsh winters aren't anything new. We've had such winters as recently 2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14, and 2014-15. All but the 2013-14 one produced some very warm spring months.

[RedSky]

I hope March is an all out torch but weeklies dont see it

[Ralph Wiggum]

50 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Awaiting the gefs ensembles, but until then, the signal across the other recent ens families looks fairly strong to me:

 

GEFS actually came North:

[PhiEaglesfan712]

21 minutes ago, RedSky said:

I hope March is an all out torch but weeklies dont see it

I don't think March will be an all-out torch. I think it's above average, but around +1 or +2 departure. I see April being the torch month.

[KamuSnow]

Tried the longer sled today and we got a couple of decent rides! The rope tow wasn't working or we would have done more. Glad we got out and enjoyed the snow that way. Need some spiked gloves for better steering. 15°F currently.