E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[Ralph Wiggum]

So what's up with the weekend noreaster folks? We out or are we in?

[Duca892]

13 minutes ago, Lucy Pull said:

Funnily enough based off some old screenshots it looks like the euro was showing a substantial hit around 168 hours. Same with GFS around 120 hours out.

i remember them trending south and then NAM at 84hrs was the first to show a major hit north of the Mason Dixon again. 

Some screenshots leading up to event -

 

 

 

It is the most fun i have ever had tracking along with a storm. Thanks for the memories. 

[zenmsav6810]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So what's up with the weekend noreaster folks? We out or are we in?

low key-in. Thinking a glancing hit... no HECS

[Duca892]

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So what's up with the weekend noreaster folks? We out or are we in?

Count me as out. It is concerning that there isn't 1 single model showing a hit for the area. 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Newman said:

Top 3 CIPS analogs this afternoon based on the 12z GFS:

1. Jan 2016

2. BDB 2010

3. Jan 1996

There's my weenie contribution for the day, because yes we have time to draw this back NW but the Euro remaining put doesn't inspire confidence.

Yea, was totally thinking 1996…. Models had that heading due east and the snow shield the important inches and feet stayed well south.  Then within about 48 hours out the storm just kept marching further and further north until it was perched off the Jersey shore then just cutoff sits and slowly eased off to the east-northeast. 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Newman said:

Ridge out west is a bit more amplified on the GFS, better wave separation between our 50/50 and NS shortwave cutting off, and the decaying NAO block is a bit more stout on the GFS forcing the wave more meridional -> pinches off sooner. You're right though, things don't look too dissimilar broadly but it's such a nuanced setup.

Looking ahead, you want to see the GFS continue these trends and/or hold them. And need the Euro to adopt greater wave separation with our stretched out TPV. We want subtle ridging to build into New England where the Euro right now has the vorticity ribbon draped and keeping heights too low.

Looked like on the Euro there was a kicker vort dropping through central Canada into the Dakotas knocking things east off the east coast.

Now not sure but I wonder if the gfs picks up on northern stream vorts better?

 

Friday 12z gfs had a 977 mb low east of New Jersey so maybe it was onto something then and it’s bringing back. We shall see but the Euro had it fir a few runs too especially 0z Sunday into Monday.

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

Getting some stray flurries, 20F.

Arctic front moving through kiss the warm air goodbye lol.

[Ralph Wiggum]

30 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Count me as out. It is concerning that there isn't 1 single model showing a hit for the area. 

 Noted. In this case, Im in.

[Hurricane Agnes]

16 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Arctic front moving through kiss the warm air goodbye lol.

I was out around that time finishing up getting the snow off the roof of the car (a SUV) and just as I was about to come in, there were some flurries.

Currently overcast and 22 with dp 10.  Had a low of 11 and high of 23.

(have avoided the midrange model freakout but will try to start checking the runs tomorrow )

[Newman]

43 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So what's up with the weekend noreaster folks? We out or are we in?

A blend of the 12z Allen Iversons (AIs) would put I-95 on the western fringe.

[Kevin Reilly]

39 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So what's up with the weekend noreaster folks? We out or are we in?

I’m in until 12z Thursday think we may see some changes at this point coastal sections could still be in trouble due to a strong onshore flow.  
 

I cannot ignore what the gfs was selling last week 977 mb east of NJ then lose it only for the Euro to pick it up 18z to 6z Sunday to Monday then lose it.

still a lot of waffling I’d like to see play out either way next 25-36 hours I think we will know.

Therefore yes I’m in!

[Mikeymac5306]

5 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I’m in until 12z Thursday think we may see some changes at this point coastal sections could still be in trouble due to a strong onshore flow.  
 

I cannot ignore what the gfs was selling last week 977 mb east of NJ then lose it only for the Euro to pick it up 18z to 6z Sunday to Monday then lose it.

still a lot of waffling I’d like to see play out either way next 25-36 hours I think we will know.

Therefore yes I’m in!

 

[Newman]

Let's hope 12z was rock bottom with this threat. 18z ICON ensembles much better and the mean sends 0.5" QPF well into southern PA. Yes this is not meant to be taken that seriously, but hey it's a good start to 18z

[JTA66]

I’m keeping a toe in the water. wtf, it’s late January, what else is there to do?

[Newman]

GFS... Lol. It's gonna hold or even be better here.

[MickeyTim6533]

OCMD about to  get smoked per gfs

[Duca892]

Bruh this is so fkn close man. Bring it north you son of a bitch

[MickeyTim6533]

starting to scoot east, damn was close but no cigar

[dizzy9479]

How about South Jersey?  Do we get anything from this run?

[The Iceman]

2 minutes ago, dizzy9479 said:

How about South Jersey?  Do we get anything from this run?

SNJ gets blasted especially the shore.

 

[Duca892]

about carbon copy from 12z. simply just gets kicked right out to sea and doesn't get a chance to come up the coast

[MickeyTim6533]

1 minute ago, The Iceman said:

SNJ gets blasted especially the shore.

not sure id say blasted........

 

[MickeyTim6533]

1 minute ago, Duca892 said:

about carbon copy from 12z. simply just gets kicked right out to sea and doesn't get a chance to come up the coast

yep, how much longer until we give up?

[The Iceman]

1 minute ago, Duca892 said:

about carbon copy from 12z. simply just gets kicked right out to sea and doesn't get a chance to come up the coast

I’ll take a hold, several encouraging things from that run. Tilts negative earlier, just need the confluence to lighten up a little and that run is a mauling.

[Newman]

GEFS looking better at hour 78. More separation of our TPV and better ridging between the two systems already. Not surprised though as the GEFS usually follow the OP. The western ridge also got better.

[Mikeymac5306]

I'm intrigued... 

[Newman]

Top two pictures are from the 6z Euro from YESTERDAY (1/26) that showed what would've been a top 5 NESIS event. Bottom pictures are from the most recent 18z GFS. From a broader view, you'd think the recent GFS would result in a major snowstorm with a closed off 500mb low about to roll under us. In fact, the confluent vorticity ribbon over northern New England isn't all too different, perhaps a bit further south on the GFS. However, the problem comes down to 6-12 hours of timing. The GFS is 1. 6-12 hours slower in evolution and 2. Just a bit too positively tilted (and slower). What that does is allow the PVA/southern stream energy to escape way out east of the trough before it gets pulled back into New England. Have you seen the GFS seemingly having "convective feedback" issues with multiple lows east of the center? Well, that is why. It doesn't know where the low center should be. The 6z Euro from yesterday though was faster, tilted neutral to negative 6-12 hours sooner, and that phase scooped up that southern stream shortwave/PVA and straight into the Jersey shore.

GFS, with the PVA offshore because of a later phase and later tilt neutral/negative:

 

Euro, which had better timing, tilt, etc:

[Newman]

^Also, that analysis is all for nothing if we begin to trend towards the recent Euro runs. This was just to show how close we were to a big solution on the 18z GFS

[PhilsFanDrew]

I'm more interested in the 18z Wed - 12z run Thursday to see if there is agreement or consensus in the models for setup and path.  As of right now I'd say my confidence for a large scale area wide blockbuster is probably only at 15% right now but that is solely based on past runs and current ensemble members.