E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[Heisy]

I totally agree, verbatim we're looking at HECS outputs from the Euro. I'm not biting yet though, will wait until Thursday 0z for full confidence, and even then there will be shifts in directions that screw New England, or screw the Mid-Atlantic, or screw somebody. I do think a super tucked solution will favor Central PA more where they get a CCB and SE PA might dry slot. But then again, it depends on the exact passage of the 700 and 850mb lows.

100% agree, for the city more worried of a tucked solution vs a miss. We shall see! Exciting times


.

[The Iceman]

It’ll be 2010 all over again if this happens, I know most places only got under a foot but the snow piles this morning are already something else. With little melting this week, where the fuck would 20” of snow even go? Yeesh.

 

but man would that be an EPIC storm to experience. Keep expectations low as we saw how much changes even inside day 4, but I don’t know how any self proclaimed weenie can look at that euro run and not feel a little tingle.

[Newman]

Just for fun before we turn to the 12z runs, end of the Euro had 16-18" of snow fall in 6 hours across Central Jersey. And the storm was just getting started.

[Duca892]

Here I am... like groundhogs day.... on TT looking at the colors waiting for frames to load

[Albedoman]

9 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Here I am... like groundhogs day.... on TT looking at the colors waiting for frames to load

Albedo man says-- Ain't going to do jack shit - pessimistic attitude  gotta love it?  LOL

[Duca892]

Think 12z GFS is closer, but don't think it is going to do it based off of Frame 150

[The Iceman]

2 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Think 12z GFS is closer, but don't think it is going to do it based off of Frame 150

It's exactly where we want it to be at this point imo. Comes together slightly too late for us but I'm encouraged that it's another model that has jumped on the idea of being an intense low off the east coast next weekend.

[Duca892]

yea about the same after hour 150 to 6z

[Duca892]

Just now, The Iceman said:

It's exactly where we want it to be at this point imo. Comes together slightly too late for us but I'm encouraged that it's another model that has jumped on the idea of being an intense low off the east coast next weekend.

Agreed

[Duca892]

From MA forums. CMC with steps toward EURO. Ladies and Gents. Long week. 

[Newman]

GFS is exactly where you want it. CMC is just incredible. A 955mb bomb on the benchmark. Sure verbatim its a tad east for some, but look at the trends... this one isn't done correcting yet.

[LVblizzard]

And here we go again! I’m not tired yet!!!

(Although I’d like this to hold off till later Saturday evening since I have to drive back from State College that day.)

[Albedoman]

4 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

And here we go again! I’m not tired yet!!!

(Although I’d like this to hold off till later Saturday evening since I have to drive back from State College that day.)

the most appropriate video clip for all of us right now----rolling rolling keep those doggies coming

 

[zenmsav6810]

14 minutes ago, Newman said:

GFS is exactly where you want it. CMC is just incredible. A 955mb bomb on the benchmark. Sure verbatim its a tad east for some, but look at the trends... this one isn't done correcting yet.

The high pressure center keeps shifting west majorly. ... also GFS and the NAM show some squalls/disorganized clipper like features 

[Violentweatherfan]

20 minutes ago, Newman said:

GFS is exactly where you want it. CMC is just incredible. A 955mb bomb on the benchmark. Sure verbatim it’s a tad east for some, but look at the trends... this one isn't done correcting yet.

Wouldn’t it draw in warm air if the LP deepens too much?

[Duca892]

GFS ENS were posted in the MA forums definitely an improvement over 6z

[Zeus]

GEFS backing that wagon up on the 12z run. Like the look for now, considering how far out we are in time.

[The Iceman]

 

963 at the benchmark . I’m with Heisy, I think I'm more concerned with a super tucked solution than a miss east at this point.

 

[The Iceman]

6 minutes ago, Zeus said:

GEFS backing that wagon up on the 12z run. Like the look for now, considering how far out we are in time.

[LVblizzard]

At this point we want the GEFS to be a miss to the east. 9 times out of 10 the GFS and its ensembles are the last ones to catch on with a storm like this.

[zenmsav6810]

12 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

 

963 at the benchmark . I’m with Heisy, I think I'm more concerned with a super tucked solution than a miss east at this point.

 

Flush! 

[LVLion77]

So this looking like a classic Miller A, correct? The Miller A’s are easier to forecast and conceptualize.

[RedSky]

1 minute ago, LVLion77 said:

So this looking like a classic Miller A, correct? The Miller A’s are easier to forecast and conceptualize.

Miller A bomb

 

[MickeyTim6533]

EURO AI wayyyyy east

 

[MickeyTim6533]

sounding like congrats Virginia

[LVLion77]

Miller A bomb
 

Excellent, yeah, the B’s have so many moving components, especially the handoff between the primary and the new coastal that it makes it so difficult. Although we certainly have cashed in with both over the years, and have had much heartbreak with both!

[RedSky]

ECM OP east this run like the Ai skynet

 

 

[MickeyTim6533]

euro east

[hazwoper]

1 hour ago, LVblizzard said:

And here we go again! I’m not tired yet!!!

(Although I’d like this to hold off till later Saturday evening since I have to drive back from State College that day.)

Same, although we were planning to stay Saturday night.  Going to hockey game at stadium.....

[hazwoper]

4 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

euro east

right where we want it at this point.