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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion


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8 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Little eye candy to look at on the 6z run. Euro and CMC have it weaker and earlier than this. Followed up by a glancing shot in fantasy land. 

At least it's something to look at no? 

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Looking at where that 0C line is set up N/W of Philly metro. 

"Traditionally", there has been some "event" around mid-January, around MLK day, so will see which way the temps go when we get there!

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55 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Looking at where that 0C line is set up N/W of Philly metro. 

"Traditionally", there has been some "event" around mid-January, around MLK day, so will see which way the temps go when we get there!

Yeah seems like every year there's something brewing around MLK Day and about 50% of the time it verifies! 

 

In other news. Looks like another rainy Eagles game Sunday. 

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26 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Yeah seems like every year there's something brewing around MLK Day and about 50% of the time it verifies! 

 

In other news. Looks like another rainy Eagles game Sunday. 

Suspect the rain will exit stage right well before kick off - bigger deal IMO will be the wind....

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A nice January thaw day on the way although a bit breezy with highs well into the 40's. Even better weather tomorrow with sun and less wind. Shower chances increase Friday and into Saturday which will mark the end of our very brief milder period. We turn back to colder during the day Sunday and we should see normal January temperatures returning for much of next week. We may also start to see some potential for more wintry weather as we move toward the end of next week.

image.png.3f295821b176cd491427d7a407d42cd4.pngimage.thumb.png.5e258440afddd12b6be222a17ed44886.png

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Some large temperature spreads this morning across the area with lower valley locations like Warwick Township with a low at 25.8 degrees while higher spots like here in East Nantmeal could go no lower than 35.7 degrees. Our mild weather continues through Saturday before we turn back to temperatures not too far either side of average for January by Sunday and through much of next week. We have rain chances increasing by later tomorrow and lasting till toward midnight on Saturday night. This could be one of our more significant rain events in the last few months with some models hinting at over an inch of rain. Looking further ahead it appears likely we turn significantly colder by next weekend but at this point no significant winter events are on the horizon. For those on Team No Snow fingers crossed it stays that way!

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28 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

FWIW ICON has the storm next Friday. GFS has it in the Outer Banks. 

No point over analyzing anything beyond day 5. But it is a Nina and I suspect at some point the Outer Banks up to VA Beach will get smacked while we enjoy cold cirrus. Let's save our sanity and accept that now.

50F at noon. Just sitting here being patient for the time being.

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7 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

No point over analyzing anything beyond day 5. But it is a Nina and I suspect at some point the Outer Banks up to VA Beach will get smacked while we enjoy cold cirrus. Let's save our sanity and accept that now.

50F at noon. Just sitting here being patient for the time being.

Of course! Nothing to get giddy about unless it's inside 5 days. Right now, it's just fun to look at during a slow day at work.  

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I'll take this look any day, progressive for sure but we will not be lacking for cold. Mid month onwards is looking great and honestly getting better as we get closer in time.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2026010812/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_41.png

 

gets even better imo after that but that's fantasy land. 

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Some folks had asked me to perform an analysis of both the Winter and Summer Average Temperature by Complete Decades for just here in Chester County from the 1900's thru the 2010's. You will see the very cyclical nature of our warming and cooling patterns. Overall, we have seen some slight warming of winters and conversely some cooling of our summers across Chester County PA. The warmest decade for both summers and winters was way back in the 1930's. Of note so far here in the partial decade of the 2020's we are so far running as the warmest winter decade since the 1930's!! However, last winter was the coldest winter in 10 years and we are off to a colder than normal start to this winter so we will wait and see if this is the start of the next cooling trend across the County. These are also updated on the http://www.chescowx.com website. Let me know if you have any questions.image.thumb.png.63b18e09e542784abfa1c4653c6e7692.pngimage.thumb.png.51c9cd9b39b063c14cb054b166e336a0.png

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21 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Some folks had asked me to perform an analysis of both the Winter and Summer Average Temperature by Complete Decades for just here in Chester County from the 1900's thru the 2010's. You will see the very cyclical nature of our warming and cooling patterns. Overall, we have seen some slight warming of winters and conversely some cooling of our summers across Chester County PA. The warmest decade for both summers and winters was way back in the 1930's. Of note so far here in the partial decade of the 2020's we are so far running as the warmest winter decade since the 1930's!! However, last winter was the coldest winter in 10 years and we are off to a colder than normal start to this winter so we will wait and see if this is the start of the next cooling trend across the County. These are also updated on the http://www.chescowx.com website. Let me know if you have any questions.image.thumb.png.63b18e09e542784abfa1c4653c6e7692.pngimage.thumb.png.51c9cd9b39b063c14cb054b166e336a0.png

It’s amazing to understand the incredible amount of variables that go into temperatures over time. There are many variables!!!  Thanks for taking the time to compile the data this is close enough to me to just add a degree of two in my location. 

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5 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

It’s amazing to understand the incredible amount of variables that go into temperatures over time. There are many variables!!!  Thanks for taking the time to compile the data this is close enough to me to just add a degree of two in my location. 

Thanks Kevin! it's my original training and early career as an accountant that makes me like to play with numbers

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