Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Wintry Potential

[DocATL]

Based on recent multiyear trends... 
 
- Nice long range signal (check)
- 3 days out, epic Euro run (check)
- South, Drier, Weaker trend to begin (pending)
- Model rug pull within 30 hours (pending)
- 1-2" actual result (pending) 

2” for Naperville. Final call.

[Stevo6899]

15 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I don't think it will be that prolific but I would lean more right than left. Mostly because we are rapidly running out of time for a rug pull. The amount of cold air in place is going to do work and with the current system being as strong as it will be it limits the cutability of this one.

agreed, we've seen drastic shifts in this timeframe when a strong system is currently ongoing and not out of the region yet, which alters the baroclin zone/track of the next storm

[CheeselandSkies]

Mainly I'm annoyed that because of the way the trough has evolved vs. the GFS and Euro from 3 days ago, there's no outbreak threat anywhere, not even the Lower MS Valley/Dixie, to armchair chase while getting snowed in.

Some of the runs were showing upper-50s dews with solid vertical depth getting pulled as far north as northern KS on Sunday or Monday, in the presence of classic meathook hodographs.

[Baum]

23 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Mainly I'm annoyed that because of the way the trough has evolved vs. the GFS and Euro from 3 days ago, there's no outbreak threat anywhere, not even the Lower MS Valley/Dixie, to armchair chase while getting snowed in.

Some of the runs were showing upper-50s dews with solid vertical depth getting pulled as far north as northern KS on Sunday or Monday, in the presence of classic meathook hodographs.

Moisture robber not an issue. Checks box.

[Stevo6899]

Has the euro been known lately for being too amped cause it's drastically stronger than most models with the slp. Usually the gfs is on the stronger side...

[ChiTownSnow]

Am I the only one worried about a dry slot here If the L moves directly over to west of Chicago? 

[jlauderdal]

Am I the only one worried about a dry slot here If the L moves directly over to west of Chicago? 

There is plenty to worry about,keep the faith, the last 24 hours are trending our way for a northern Illinois hit .

[Baum]

48 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Am I the only one worried about a dry slot here If the L moves directly over to west of Chicago? 

If the L goes west of you you’ll be dry slotted. Fact of life. And I’ll worry about that after I’ve got my 4” of WAA snow. 

[sbnwx85]

Just sharing because it shows the NWS Blend of models

 

[Paulie21]

Hope the GIF works..
18z NAM for ORD here. Pretty decent co-location between Omega and DGZ. Fairly shallow DGZ sitting at 100-150mb depth; and though best omega is a bit above, still not too bad. 
There's also some slight jet coupling perhaps earlier in the event. Tough to tell the ratios between WAA snow, decent dynamics, but also at worst some precip mixing.  Personally think KLOT is a bit lambish but it is tough to tell for now.

We'll have a better idea with high res models of course. Hoping we can squeeze a brief weenie band somewhere midday in nIL.