WxUSAF Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Does it have it but to north on Sunday? Just seems weak based on precip. Doesn’t give anybody a ton of love. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Just seems weak based on precip. Doesn’t give anybody a ton of love. Just a little love is enough for me. It's not the size of the ship, it's the motion in the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: My point exactly. 2 weeks out going to flip flop quite a bit. Saw that over the last 24 hours already wrt that time period Agreed. Op models are going to show vastly different results at these kinds of ranges - we all know this. Will it remain cold with chances of snow at Christmas? I personally hope so, but if it torches, then I break out the clubs and get a few rounds in while I’m on PTO (and I honestly would play even if it’s chilly and dry). It’s a win-win! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 23 minutes ago, mattie g said: Agreed. Op models are going to show vastly different results at these kinds of ranges - we all know this. Will it remain cold with chances of snow at Christmas? I personally hope so, but if it torches, then I break out the clubs and get a few rounds in while I’m on PTO (and I honestly would play even if it’s chilly and dry). It’s a win-win! At this point in December 2017 all the models were in two camps. An arctic blast or highs in the 70s on Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Nam pretty juicy west of us at hour 60, beefed up from 12z let’s see if it equals better here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Comes in looking good then just vaporizes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago You’d think ok this looks good. Then next frame just evaporates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago That would suck. But not buying it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: That would suck. But not buying it I have watched a many a snowstorm get chewed up by mountains lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago As mentioned earlier, EPS is more onboard with Friday than Sunday. Pretty decent consensus for a light event Friday... less for Sunday. Not a lot of upside for either at least via the ens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Funny enough though, the AIFS hates Friday and likes Sunday better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago GEFS likes Friday slightly more but has more upside for the Sunday system. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 17 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: I have watched a many a snowstorm get chewed up by mountains lol Yeah. I thought that was the rule here. Which is why we hate clippers. They don't tap that gulf moisture so the moisture it does have gets wasted on the west side of the mountains. Upslope? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 4 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said: Yeah. I thought that was the rule here. Which is why we hate clippers. They don't tap that gulf moisture so the moisture it does have gets wasted on the west side of the mountains. Upslope? They usually don’t dry up as much as modeled and also with how juiced it looked coming over the mountains thought would result in a better light event. Will see what future runs show if anything at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: They usually don’t dry up as much as modeled and also with how juiced it looked coming over the mountains thought would result in a better light event. Will see what future runs show if anything at all. Could it be because of the cold weather? low dew points? Instead of a clipper with temps closer to 32F? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, adelphi_sky said: Could it be because of the cold weather? low dew points? Instead of a clipper with temps closer to 32F? Probably a mute point as I’m sure 0z will show something completely different lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Rgem and Icon have nothing for Friday. Hard to have confidence in anything but flurries without total model support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Rgem and Icon have nothing for Friday. Hard to have confidence in anything but flurries without total model support. Hard to have confidence in anything anymore outside 2/3 days. Though I wouldn’t put my faith in icon for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago As a warminista, I'm hoping that NCEP's GFS claims for the 18th turn out to be pure RAIN, if anything at all. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, arlwx12 said: As a warminista, I'm hoping that NCEP's GFS claims for the 18th turn out to be pure RAIN, if anything at all. beware of the snow weenies, like me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, bncho said: beware of the snow weenies, like me Ban em 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Gfs offers snow showers pretty much for the weekend. Ain’t much there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 18z GFS dislikes Friday, weekend has small jack zone of 2-4" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, bncho said: 18z GFS dislikes Friday, weekend has small jack zone and kinda screws everybody else Keep bleeding away. Euro save us? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 11 minutes ago, bncho said: 18z GFS dislikes Friday, weekend has small jack zone of 2-4" Hey I'll take that Gimme that jack bubble! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 13 minutes ago, bncho said: 18z GFS dislikes Friday, weekend has small jack zone of 2-4" I’m in the jack off zone, hook me up please. I’m due. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 20 minutes ago, arlwx12 said: As a warminista, I'm hoping that NCEP's GFS claims for the 18th turn out to be pure RAIN, if anything at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago A lot of differences amongst models only 72 hours out from the small Friday wave. These busy NS dominant patterns have models confused AFGfs now likes Sunday for the immediate Baltimore area after leaving NoVa high and dry. I’m sure it’ll play out just like that… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, jayyy said: A lot of differences amongst models only 72 hours out from the small Friday wave. These busy NS dominant patterns have models confused AF Last Friday's storm almost disappeared for DC-north within 36 hours? So I don't expect much consistency on a weak vort in fast flow until like 0z Thursday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Last Friday's storm almost disappeared for DC-north within 36 hours? So I don't expect much consistency on a weak vort in fast flow until like 0z Thursday.For sure. Models seem pretty lost on how to handle everything in such a fast flow, especially given how weak all of these waves are. Guess we’ll have to keep expectations at nothing and be surprised if we get more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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