December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Does it have it but to north on Sunday?

Just seems weak based on precip. Doesn’t give anybody a ton of love.

[ravensrule]

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Just seems weak based on precip. Doesn’t give anybody a ton of love.

Just a little love is enough for me. It's not the size of the ship, it's the motion in the ocean. 

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

My point exactly. 2 weeks out going to flip flop quite a bit. Saw that over the last 24 hours already wrt that time period

Agreed. Op models are going to show vastly different results at these kinds of ranges - we all know this.

Will it remain cold with chances of snow at Christmas? I personally hope so, but if it torches, then I break out the clubs and get a few rounds in while I’m on PTO (and I honestly would play even if it’s chilly and dry). It’s a win-win!

[JenkinsJinkies]

23 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Agreed. Op models are going to show vastly different results at these kinds of ranges - we all know this.

Will it remain cold with chances of snow at Christmas? I personally hope so, but if it torches, then I break out the clubs and get a few rounds in while I’m on PTO (and I honestly would play even if it’s chilly and dry). It’s a win-win!

At this point in December 2017 all the models were in two camps. An arctic blast or highs in the 70s on Christmas.

[TSSN+]

Nam pretty juicy west of us at hour 60, beefed up from 12z let’s see if it equals better here 

[TSSN+]

Comes in looking good then just vaporizes 

[TSSN+]

You’d think ok this looks good. Then next frame just evaporates.

 

[TSSN+]

That would suck. But not buying it 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

That would suck. But not buying it 

I have watched a many a snowstorm get chewed up by mountains lol

[NorthArlington101]

As mentioned earlier, EPS is more onboard with Friday than Sunday. Pretty decent consensus for a light event Friday... less for Sunday. Not a lot of upside for either at least via the ens.

[NorthArlington101]

Funny enough though, the AIFS hates Friday and likes Sunday better.

[NorthArlington101]

GEFS likes Friday slightly more but has more upside for the Sunday system. 

[adelphi_sky]

17 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I have watched a many a snowstorm get chewed up by mountains lol

Yeah. I thought that was the rule here. Which is why we hate clippers. They don't tap that gulf moisture so the moisture it does have gets wasted on the west side of the mountains. Upslope?

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

Yeah. I thought that was the rule here. Which is why we hate clippers. They don't tap that gulf moisture so the moisture it does have gets wasted on the west side of the mountains. Upslope?

They usually don’t dry up as much as modeled and also with how juiced it looked coming over the mountains thought would result in a better light event. Will see what future runs show if anything at all. 

[adelphi_sky]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

They usually don’t dry up as much as modeled and also with how juiced it looked coming over the mountains thought would result in a better light event. Will see what future runs show if anything at all. 

Could it be because of the cold weather? low dew points? Instead of a clipper with temps closer to 32F? 

[TSSN+]

Just now, adelphi_sky said:

Could it be because of the cold weather? low dew points? Instead of a clipper with temps closer to 32F? 

Probably a mute point as I’m sure 0z will show something completely different lol 

[mitchnick]

Rgem and Icon have nothing for Friday. Hard to have confidence in anything but flurries without total model support.

[TSSN+]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Rgem and Icon have nothing for Friday. Hard to have confidence in anything but flurries without total model support.

Hard to have confidence in anything anymore outside 2/3 days. Though I wouldn’t put my faith in icon for sure. 

[arlwx12]

As a warminista, I'm hoping that NCEP's GFS claims for the 18th turn out to be pure RAIN, if anything at all.

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, arlwx12 said:

As a warminista, I'm hoping that NCEP's GFS claims for the 18th turn out to be pure RAIN, if anything at all.

beware of the snow weenies, like me 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

beware of the snow weenies, like me 

Ban em 

[TSSN+]

Gfs offers snow showers pretty much for the weekend. Ain’t much there. 

[bncho]

18z GFS dislikes Friday, weekend has small jack zone of 2-4"

[TSSN+]

Just now, bncho said:

18z GFS dislikes Friday, weekend has small jack zone and kinda screws everybody else

Keep bleeding away. Euro save us? 

[Maestrobjwa]

11 minutes ago, bncho said:

18z GFS dislikes Friday, weekend has small jack zone of 2-4"

Hey I'll take that  Gimme that jack bubble!

[ravensrule]

13 minutes ago, bncho said:

18z GFS dislikes Friday, weekend has small jack zone of 2-4"

I’m in the jack off zone, hook me up please. I’m due. 

[Maestrobjwa]

20 minutes ago, arlwx12 said:

As a warminista, I'm hoping that NCEP's GFS claims for the 18th turn out to be pure RAIN, if anything at all.

 

 

[jayyy]

A lot of differences amongst models only 72 hours out from the small Friday wave. These busy NS dominant patterns have models confused AF

Gfs now likes Sunday for the immediate Baltimore area after leaving NoVa high and dry. I’m sure it’ll play out just like that…

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

A lot of differences amongst models only 72 hours out from the small Friday wave. These busy NS dominant patterns have models confused AF

Last Friday's storm almost disappeared for DC-north within 36 hours?  So I don't expect much consistency on a weak vort in fast flow until like 0z Thursday.

[jayyy]

Last Friday's storm almost disappeared for DC-north within 36 hours?  So I don't expect much consistency on a weak vort in fast flow until like 0z Thursday.

For sure. Models seem pretty lost on how to handle everything in such a fast flow, especially given how weak all of these waves are. Guess we’ll have to keep expectations at nothing and be surprised if we get more