CoastalWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Why would modeling show that 2 meter BN? Odd. Maybe snowpack? Otherwise odd to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said: As things stand right now it looks like at least the next 8-10 days go by the wayside.... Yea just ignore the ensembles. 2 days ave above normal and snow is possible. Month will finish some -7 -8 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I totally guy it...man, like exactly the PT pattern that I expected to develop around the holiday and well in January. I think the next window opens in mid January (ducks and runs) I can not believe that I am coming out of this pattern with 3.75"...less than NH and the cape....just unbelievable. Yeah about 2” here. Bent over again. But cheer up, Mansfield stake at an all time high. Boing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Would still need some improvements but doesn't seem like much in order to get some front end snow on a couple of these systems traversing down from the Lakes through New England. Obviously we want to see some shifts but we are still 7-10 days out from the next period of interest. This is not a big storm pattern that's for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, Ginx snewx said: Yea just ignore the ensembles. 2 days ave above normal and snow is possible. Month will finish some -7 -8 here I know you are into that, but I don't give a rat's ass about the negative departure if it doesn't snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: Would still need some improvements but doesn't seem like much in order to get some front end snow on a couple of these systems traversing down from the Lakes through New England. Obviously we want to see some shifts but we are still 7-10 days out from the next period of interest. This is not a big storm pattern that's for sure That’s definitely possible. Would need a front ender or else we’re rear ender. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: Would still need some improvements but doesn't seem like much in order to get some front end snow on a couple of these systems traversing down from the Lakes through New England. Obviously we want to see some shifts but we are still 7-10 days out from the next period of interest. This is not a big storm pattern that's for sure Yes, I think we will avoid getting shut out next few weeks...couple that with improving climo and the next few weeks will probably still be snowier than the last few. 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That’s definitely possible. Would need a front ender or else were rear ender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I know you are into that, but I don't give a rat's ass about the negative departure if it doesn't snow. There are 16 days left with a volatile pattern evolving. Way way to early to throw in the snow towel for this month.Way way too much cold around. The junkies don't see their next fix and are jonesin hours after the last flake fell. This place is bonkers 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes, I think we will avoid getting shut out next few weeks...couple that with improving climo and the next few weeks will probably still be snowier than the last few. Ok misunderstood you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago I’m still hoping something works out between now and Christmas, but I think it’s worth noting pattern stinks that’s all. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, Ginx snewx said: There are 16 days left with a volatile pattern evolving. Way way to early to throw in the snow towel for this month.Way way too much cold around. The junkies don't see their next fix and are jonesin hours after the last flake fell. This place is bonkers No, I agree front enders are possible....just sucks to be where we are after how cold it has been, and now be relegated to hoping for a couple of inches of slush before it washes away and we add to the snow stake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: There are 16 days left with a volatile pattern evolving. Way way to early to throw in the snow towel for this month.Way way too much cold around. The junkies don't see their next fix and are jonesin hours after the last flake fell. This place is bonkers The cutter cometh, the cutter taketh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Ok misunderstood you No, not on you....my tone is awful because I'm frustrated. Wasn't clear... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, I agree front enders are possible....just sucks to be where we are after how cold it has been, and now be relegated to hoping for a couple of inches of slush before it washes away and we add to the snow stake. I told you my 1989 story. Imagine not seeing any accumulation and -17 for the month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago This definitely isn't like a ratter pattern and I think the season is over...I still like the season as a whole, but now we enter into a decidedly more unfavorable regime for a rather extended stretch after squanders. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Unreal...early season has gone exactly as I had expected patten progression wise, just colder and LESS snow than I had expected. Make. It. Stop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago It’s not a warm or even mild pattern . It’s a strong windy screamer that really warms it up for a day . I think chances are 60/40 in favor of snow OTG Xmas Day 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe snowpack? Otherwise odd to me. 1000hr 2m temps. What could go wrong? It looks like it wants to be warm in the Great Lakes too, but it’s popping big neg anomalies over Lake Superior. I could see that in the spring, but don’t understand how the lake helps them pull neggies in Jan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like winter ends This is really accurate 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This definitely isn't like a ratter pattern and I think the season is over...I still like the season as a whole, but now we enter into a decidedly more unfavorable regime for a rather extended stretch after squanders. Depends what your needs are and what makes you satisfied. I've been very happy with the season start. Having the well below avg cold has locked almost everything up ice-wise except for the big lakes. So much better than getting bombed with early snow on top of unfrozen ground. I'd say this is the best start for prepping for snowmoblie season in a long time, but, I'd be lying if I said seeing the cutter on friday won't be disappointing. Had that been snow, there would be some nice early season riding in several areas. Hopefully after friday we can get to more seasonal or below avg temps and build the pack late in the month. Squandering for me is if we go high and dry first half of Jan, followed by another cutter. That would be painful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Depends what your needs are and what makes you satisfied. I've been very happy with the season start. Having the well below avg cold has locked almost everything up ice-wise except for the big lakes. So much better than getting bombed with early snow on top of unfrozen ground. I'd say this is the best start for prepping for snowmoblie season in a long time, but, I'd be lying if I said seeing the cutter on friday won't be disappointing. Had that been snow, there would be some nice early season riding in several areas. Hopefully after friday we can get to more seasonal or below avg temps and build the pack late in the month. Squandering for me is if we go high and dry first half of Jan, followed by another cutter. That would be painful. Well...snow. You have had a decent amount, and I haven't. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago I'm going to do pattern update blog this week, hopefully tomorrow. Don't expect really any changes from the progression that I laid out on 11/10, just maybe more specific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago The sequence this December has summed up my climo since 2018....this exact sequence. 12/2 nailed areas JUST to my north....like legit 3-5 miles, then the mid atlantic gets a couple, followed a closer graze that nails southern portions of the region. Now we flip back to a NNE pattern that will focus north of me. Just relentlessly frustrating, aside from maybe 3 days....1/7/2024, 2/1/2021 and 12/6?/2019. I get something from both extremes, so I avoid the cellar seasons that SOP has gotten, but have an unmatched streak of overall futility (7 consecutive seasons of greater than 10" below average and counting). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s not a warm or even mild pattern . It’s a strong windy screamer that really warms it up for a day . I think chances are 60/40 in favor of snow OTG Xmas Day 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Will has disappeared- You know that that means.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Can we just get like 5-6 more systems like this past Saturday, except maybe a few inches beefier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Lemme know what needs clarification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Can we just get like 5-6 more systems like this past Saturday, except maybe a few inches beefier? Every year I get excited to see that the weather will be like around Xmas in the hopes that we'll get something that leave everyone stranded at grandma's, but that hopeful period of blissful ignorance is just about over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Every year I get excited to see that the weather will be like around Xmas in the hopes that we'll get something that leave everyone stranded at grandma's, but that hopeful period of blissful ignorance is just about over. Every year I go into the Christmas weather period with such high hopes. I never learn, it’s a sickness. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Every year I get excited to see that the weather will be like around Xmas in the hopes that we'll get something that leave everyone stranded at grandma's, but that hopeful period of blissful ignorance is just about over. Yup. I know every now and then we all debate on would you rather have one big monster storm for the winter and little outside of that or a winter which is composed of many, but small events. There was a time I would have preferred the former, but I think I would prefer the later (I mean the true preference would be many smaller storms but a few big monsters lol). In general, winter and cold suck...but getting snow makes it tolerable. Give me several 2-5" events and winter will be more fun to deal with 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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