November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...

[Kitz Craver]

16 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Man where are you getting your info from. There's nothing that suggests a big warm-up around the holiday. Plus, it's a month away. You know as much as anyone else that things are going to change in another week and a half from now. I love the way you say these things to just try to help your reverse psychology theory. As soon as we get a real threat, you're going to be on top of it like white on rice ( just like the rest of us ). 

Well Ray’s write up did feature said warm up sometime around that period, so…

[ORH_wxman]

Wonder when the GFS and foreign guidance is going to converge on Tday. GFS still like a full day slower with that trough. Foreign models all have the front offshore by Tday morning. 

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

He mentioned you as one of the ones making that claim.

There’s some concern from some of the energy Mets around Christmas. It’s a month out so I don’t really care at this point.

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

There’s some concern from some of the energy Mets around Christmas. It’s a month out so I don’t really care at this point.

Nor should anyone else, A month away many things can change, I guess i somewhat understand the thinking if you compare that period to the past few years.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wonder when the GFS and foreign guidance is going to converge on Tday. GFS still like a full day slower with that trough. Foreign models all have the front offshore by Tday morning. 

GFS a few more cycles away from being a full on Turkey day snowstorm for NNE at least.. 

[CoastalWx]

Nasty and wedgy on the gfs. Let’s either delay it or get it out sooner. 

[CoastalWx]

SWFE on 12/3? Decent NoP anyways.

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s so me well known Mets that are thinking we only have until the 15th. Not making it up 

Obviously I'm not a met, but my stance is the pattern begins to break down by mid month into Xmas...probably not "warm". I may have def. rushed that though given the weak antecedent nature of the PV in conjunction with the anticipated behavior of the MJO. Just don't be surprised to see the second half trend a bit warmer.

[Snowcrazed71]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Obviously I'm not a met, but my stance is the pattern begins to break down by mid month into Xmas...probably not "warm". I may have def. rushed that though given the weak antecedent nature of the PV in conjunction with the anticipated behavior of the MJO. Just don't be surprised to see the second half trend a bit warmer.

But then there's this...

The Madden Julian Oscillation or (MJO) is really important when it comes to long range forecasting during the winter. Thunderstorm convection initiating over various regions along the equator while simultaneously other regions are drier corresponds with a total of 8 phases we monitor that influence the weather patterns over various regions across the globe, including North America. 

When you have a lot of convection over phase 6 which is the Western Pacific, it likes to enhance a very warm pattern over much the US. Currently we are in a phase 6 and it’ll make sense to you if you have been outside today.

When convection sets up a little further to the east over the Western Pacific, we call it a phase 7. That introduces more cold air back to the US, but is met with some resistance from a ridge of high pressure over the Southeast US that tries to keep this part of the country milder. As we head into Thanksgiving, we’ll see a brief shot of cold air for a few days, but going into early December it will be met with a return of that ridge which will again increase our temperatures for a time.

When convection begins to shift into the Western Hemisphere, we call that phase 8. Phase 8 corresponds to cold overwhelming the pattern for the central and eastern US. The projected evolution of the MJO in the coming weeks is to go from 6 currently to 7 during the last week of November and early December and into phase 8 by mid December. Until that time our temperatures may be highly variable. Once we get into phase 8 mid-December, steadier cold air will become more predominant and winter weather chances will hopefully increase just in time for Christmas!

[ma blizzard]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

SWFE on 12/3? Decent NoP anyways.

cold airmass to the north at least gives us a shot .. not a bad look but prob would be better the more latitude you got 

[WinterWolf]

53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Kevin probing

Like proctologist. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Man where are you getting your info from. There's nothing that suggests a big warm-up around the holiday. Plus, it's a month away. You know as much as anyone else that things are going to change in another week and a half from now. I love the way you say these things to just try to help your reverse psychology theory. As soon as we get a real threat, you're going to be on top of it like white on rice ( just like the rest of us ). 

Like I said. Ask Scooter 

[Damage In Tolland]

43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There’s some concern from some of the energy Mets around Christmas. It’s a month out so I don’t really care at this point.

Thank you 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Like I said. Ask Scooter 

Paging Proctologist Dr Kevin….

[CoastalWx]

I’m gonna call BS on the GFS for T-Day. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m gonna call BS on the GFS for T-Day. 

It might start catching on by next Wednesday. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

But then there's this...

The Madden Julian Oscillation or (MJO) is really important when it comes to long range forecasting during the winter. Thunderstorm convection initiating over various regions along the equator while simultaneously other regions are drier corresponds with a total of 8 phases we monitor that influence the weather patterns over various regions across the globe, including North America. 

When you have a lot of convection over phase 6 which is the Western Pacific, it likes to enhance a very warm pattern over much the US. Currently we are in a phase 6 and it’ll make sense to you if you have been outside today.

When convection sets up a little further to the east over the Western Pacific, we call it a phase 7. That introduces more cold air back to the US, but is met with some resistance from a ridge of high pressure over the Southeast US that tries to keep this part of the country milder. As we head into Thanksgiving, we’ll see a brief shot of cold air for a few days, but going into early December it will be met with a return of that ridge which will again increase our temperatures for a time.

When convection begins to shift into the Western Hemisphere, we call that phase 8. Phase 8 corresponds to cold overwhelming the pattern for the central and eastern US. The projected evolution of the MJO in the coming weeks is to go from 6 currently to 7 during the last week of November and early December and into phase 8 by mid December. Until that time our temperatures may be highly variable. Once we get into phase 8 mid-December, steadier cold air will become more predominant and winter weather chances will hopefully increase just in time for Christmas!

I thought I just mentioned the MJO in my reply...?

[ORH_wxman]

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

SWFE on 12/3? Decent NoP anyways.

Gonna be several shots at a SWFE i think in the first 10 days of Dec....pattern has that look. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I thought I just mentioned the MJO in my reply...?

His name is Snowcrazed

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Gonna be several shots at a SWFE i think in the first 10 days of Dec....pattern has that look. 

Absolutely....especially closer to the latter portion of that period.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

His name is Snowcrazed

Folks also need to remember that the MJO isn't the sole pattern driver...it's an element that can either constructively or deconstructivity interfere with the background forcing. Ie...it's one ingredient in the dish, not the main course.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Absolutely....especially closer to the latter portion of that period.

I’m fully prepared for your interior strap on for the beginning of the month, but I think if the progs are right, the wealth will be spread across a chunk of SNE during the month. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m fully prepared for your interior strap on for the beginning of the month, but I think if the progs are right, the wealth will be spread across a chunk of SNE during the month. 

No, I don't expect you to get screwed badly in a SWFE...maybe a bit less, but not pantsed. That is more likely in a coastal later in the month.

[dryslot]

I like me some SWFE.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, I don't expect you get screwed badly in a SWFE...maybe a bit less, but not pantsed. That is more likely in a coastal later in the month.

I just mean as things transition. Look at the gfs for example. Something like that on 12/3. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I just mean as things transition. Look at the gfs for example. Something like that on 12/3. 

I haven't started looking at discrete threats....still in cool-down mode after my seasonal deep-dive. Probably fire up the package next week.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Absolutely....especially closer to the latter portion of that period.

It's funny how the objective D11 analogs right now all point to years with SWFEs in early December.....top analog is 11/29/91 (big SWFE on 12/3/91).....2007 shows up twice on the list....so do 1972, 1978 and 1983 (all 3 had early Dec SWFEs...'78 was more of a front ender cutter, but still)

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's funny how the objective D11 analogs right now all point to years with SWFEs in early December.....top analog is 11/29/91 (big SWFE on 12/3/91).....2007 shows up twice on the list....so do 1972, 1978 and 1983 (all 3 had early Dec SWFEs...'78 was more of a front ender cutter, but still)

 

I liked  Dec 1970, 2007 and 2008 as SWFE analog months.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I liked  Dec 1970, 2007 and 2008 as SWFE analog months.

A collective boing can be heard to your south.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

A collective boing can be heard to your south.

This is my complete December list:

December Analogs: 2021, 2017,2008, 2007, 2000, 1981, 1970

 

Seasonal:

 

Primary Sensible Weather Winter Analogs (*Denotes Strongest Analog): 2024-2025, 2021-2022, 2017-2018, *2000-2001, 1970-1971