November 2025 OBS Discussion

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I’ve been flying to the southeast since 2004 out of one of our garbage airports in NY haha.

 

At the beginning of the season, and I’m talking around now, it is not unusual for you to fly to a place like Raleigh or Charlotte or Atlanta and have it be colder at 7 AM than LaGuardia

Those places excel at radiating on clear calm nights. Even JAX, being surrounded by endless Pine Barrens is good at it. 

NYC is not good at radiating. Its a mess of cement, it is near the coast, it almost always has a wind component.

So it is not surprising with the cold core going southeast, coupled with a clear calm night that it would be cooler there than here

 

 

This has nothing to do with radiational cooling since the core of the cold also missed the interior cold spots that have no trouble radiating like HPN up in Westchester and other surrounding more rural sites.

Past instances with Arctic outbreaks this intense in the Southeast were much colder across the entire Northeast. Plus they often were often of a longer duration without such a quick rebound after just one cold morning.

It’s just another version of the core of the cold missing the Northeast like we have been seeing in recent years. Last January was a more recent example with the coldest departures missing the Northeast with spots that have no trouble radiating like Caribou remaining much warmer relative to areas further south.

[SACRUS]

48 / 34 clouds moved in.  Perhaps some breaks in the clouds as winds pick up today and get gusty this afternoon and evening.  Warmer Fri - Sun with clouds lingering through Saturday, may finally see a sunny day return Sunday.  back and forth cooler Mon / Tue before moderating back to and / above normal.   Euro with a pronounced strong ridge into the east towards the week 22nd with a warmer week.  Beyond there could be back down to close the month and open next.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 74 (1931)
NYC: 73 (1931)
LGA: 70 (1964)
JFK: 71 (1964)


Lows:

EWR: 22 (2019)
NYC: 23 (2019)
LGA: 24 (2019)
JFK: 23 (2019)


Historical:

1833: In 1833, observers were familiar with the Leonid meteor shower, but the event that year was very intense and leads to the first formulation of a theory on the origin of meteors. By some estimates, the 1833 Leonid meteor shower had 240,000 meteors in a nine-hour period.

1879: Nov. heat wave hits DC with second latest 80° reading ever to this date. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1881: Hailstones from a tremendous storm that hit Georgia on the 8th were still visible nearly a week later at Dry Pond, GA. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1904: This hurricane moved north to near Cape Hatteras. As the system became nontropical, cold air on the west side of the circulation set up an early snowstorm across North Carolina. A twenty-four hour rainfall record was set for November at Farmville (3.17"). Richmond, VA had 1.65 inches precipitation and 1.8 inches of snow from this storm. A Late East Coast Storms  (Ref. Richmond Weather Records.)

1933 - The first dust storm of the great dust bowl era of the 1930s occurred. The dust storm, which had spread from Montana to the Ohio Valley the day before, prevailed from Georgia to Maine resulting in a black rain over New York and a brown snow in Vermont. Parts of South Dakota, Minnesota and Iowa reported zero visibility on the 12th. On the 13th, dust reduced the visibility to half a mile in Tennessee. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1938: Snowstorm across Northern Minnesota. Barometer falls to 29.31 in Duluth,MN. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
 

1946 - General Electric scientists produced snow in the Massachusetts Berkshires in the first modern day cloud seeding experiment. (The Weather Channel)

 

1946: General Electric scientists produced snow in the Massachusetts Berkshires in the first modern-day cloud seeding experiment. Scientist Vincent Schaefer dropped six pounds of dry ice pellets into a cloud over Pittsfield, MA. The cloud seeding experiment produced snowfall, as a 4-mile long cloud was converted into snow flurries. The success of the experiment became the basis of many weather modification projects.

1953 - Strong southeasterly winds associated with a Pacific cold front reached 70 mph at Sacramento CA to equal their all-time record. The previous record had been established in a similar weather pattern on December 12th of the previous year. (The Weather Channel)

1981 - A powerful cyclone brought high winds to Washington State and Oregon. The cyclone, which formed about 1000 miles west of San Francisco, intensified rapidly as it approached the Oregon coast with the central pressure reaching 28.22 inches (956 millibars). A wind trace from the Whiskey Run Turbine Site, about 12 miles south of Coos Bay in Oregon, showed peak gusts to 97 mph fifty feet above ground level. The wind caused widespread damage in Washington and Oregon, with 12 deaths reported. As much as four feet of snow fell in the Sierra Nevada Range of northern California. (Storm Data)


1986: High temperatures are held in the upper teens to lower 20s as arctic air pours into Lower Michigan. The high of 19° at Grand Rapids, MI is a record for the date and the coldest high temperature for so early in the season. Widespread record lows were set from the Plains to the Southeast including: International Falls, MN: -12°, Duluth, MN: -7°, North Platte, NE: -7°, Marquette, MI: -5°, Sioux City, IA: -4°, Rochester, MN: -4°, Omaha, NE: -2°, Waterloo, IA: -1°, Minneapolis, MN: 0°, Dubuque, IA: 1°, Green Bay, WI: 2°, La Crosse, WI: 2°, Madison, WI: 2°, Concordia, KS: 2°, Kansas City, MO: 3°, Rockford, IL: 3°, Ste. St. Marie, MI: 4°, Topeka, KS: 4°, Springfield, MO: 5°, Milwaukee, WI: 5°, Moline, IL: 5°, Chicago, IL: 6°, Columbia, MO: 7°, Springfield, IL: 7°, St. Louis, MO: 10°, Indianapolis, IN: 10°, Grand Rapids, MI: 10°, Paducah, KY: 10° (broke previous record by 10 degrees), Beckley, WV: 12°, Dayton, OH: 13°, Bristol, TN: 19°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - A storm moving off the Pacific Ocean produced rain and gale force winds along the northern and central Pacific coast, and heavy snow in the Cascade Mountains. Cold weather prevailed in the southeastern U.S. Five cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Asheville NC with a reading of 21 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Low pressure brought rain and snow and gusty winds to the northeastern U.S. A thunderstorm drenched Agawam MA with 1.25 inches of rain in fifteen minutes. Winds gusted to 58 mph at Nantucket MA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thirty-two cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 70s as far north as Michigan and Pennsylvania. Afternoon highs in the 80s were reported from the Southern Plains to the southern Atlantic coast. Columbia SC reported a record high of 86 degrees, and the high of 71 degrees at Flint MI was their warmest of record for so late in the season. (The National Weather Summary)


1999: Over 135 daily record highs were established across the western and central United States as an unseasonable 588 decameter heat ridge dominated. Lincoln and Omaha, NE set their all-time November high temperature records with 85° and 83° respectively. Lincoln broke their previous record by 11 degrees. Springfield, MO tied their all-time November record with 81° as did Idyllwild, CA with 80°. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
 

[wdrag]

So far, pretty placid relatively speaking for us here near NYC, into Thanksgiving. 

[SACRUS]

20 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

 

The cool departures

 

EWR:
11/11 : 42/ 33 (-10)
11/ 2: 51 / 39 (-3)
NYC: 
11/11: 41 / 22 (-12)
11/12: 50 / 38 (-5)
LGA:
11/11: 43  / 34 (-13)
11/12:  51 / 39 (-5)
JFK:
11/11:  42 / 33 (-10)
11/12: 51 / 39 (-3)
TTN:
11/11: 42 / 30 (-10)
11/12: 51 / 36 (-2)

[the_other_guy]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This has nothing to do with radiational cooling since the core of the cold also missed the interior cold spots that have no trouble radiating like HPN up in Westchester and other surrounding more rural sites.

Past instances with Arctic outbreaks this intense in the Southeast were much colder across the entire Northeast. Plus they often were often of a longer duration without such a quick rebound after just one cold morning.

It’s just another version of the core of the cold missing the Northeast like we have been seeing in recent years. Last January was a more recent example with the coldest departures missing the Northeast with spots that have no trouble radiating like Caribou remaining much warmer relative to areas further south.

actually, it has a lot to do with radiational cooling combined with what you said. I’m telling you as somebody that’s been flying these routes for 25 years, they radiate better in the interior southeast than we do here and it isnt unusual to see a place like RDU cooler than LGA in Nov/Dec on clear still nights…until the core of the cold season sets up.

You are in front of your computer a lot, take a look at the historical records sir. 

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

actually, it has a lot to do with radiational cooling combined with what you said. I’m telling you as somebody that’s been flying these routes for 25 years, they radiate better in the interior southeast than we do here and it isnt unusual to see a place like RDU cooler than LGA in Nov/Dec on clear still nights…until the core of the cold season sets up.

You are in front of your computer a lot, take a look at the historical records sir. 

 

The recent cold records across the Southeast occurred at both urban, suburban, and rural sites. From the interior right down into the Florida Keys. So it was the function of the cold Arctic airmass which dropped into the Southeast. 

Since even rural areas of the Northeast that radiate well have been missing the cold records at a similar rate as our more urban areas have. You need a cold enough Arctic airmass for radiational cooling to set records.

Case in point the -50 low back in January 1977 in the Adirondacks. That radiational cooling at Old Forge was part of a much wider Arctic outbreak with records across the entire region.  So even with great radiational cooling, we haven’t seen that kind of cold since then. Since the overall air masses have become so much warmer. 

[anthonymm]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This has nothing to do with radiational cooling since the core of the cold also missed the interior cold spots that have no trouble radiating like HPN up in Westchester and other surrounding more rural sites.

Past instances with Arctic outbreaks this intense in the Southeast were much colder across the entire Northeast. Plus they often were often of a longer duration without such a quick rebound after just one cold morning.

It’s just another version of the core of the cold missing the Northeast like we have been seeing in recent years. Last January was a more recent example with the coldest departures missing the Northeast with spots that have no trouble radiating like Caribou remaining much warmer relative to areas further south.

Care to explain the reasoning why the pattern post 2019 has been to utterly hostile to cold and snow in the northeast specifically ? Other regions aren't experiencing this.

[NEG NAO]

19 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Care to explain the reasoning why the pattern post 2019 has been to utterly hostile to cold and snow in the northeast specifically ? Other regions aren't experiencing this.

Probably for some of the same reasons other multi- year snow droughts have occurred in NYC - shouldn't be surprised...

monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

So far, pretty placid relatively speaking for us here near NYC, into Thanksgiving. 

good for folks who are traveling for the holiday and long weekend

[SACRUS]

Hopefully get into some clearing here and sunshine

 

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

good for folks who are traveling for the holiday and long weekend

Don't count your chickens before they hatch - hard to believe there won't be a significant storm in the next 2 weeks with the next cold fronts and much colder air on the way..........