November 2025 OBS Discussion

[Sundog]

18z RGEM a bit colder than 12z for area wide first freeze:

 

The 18z NAM also brings the city below freezing. 

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:


ACY: 71 
EWR: 69
PHL: 69
ISP: 68
New Brnswck: 67
BLM: 67
TEB: 67
JFK: 67
LGA: 67
TTN: 67

NYC: 65

[psv88]

67 today. 

[FPizz]

4 hours ago, Sundog said:

18z RGEM a bit colder than 12z for area wide first freeze:

 

The 18z NAM also brings the city below freezing. 

6th freeze for here

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Many record lows will fall, especially in the South.

Looks like a version of last January when the coldest departures went to our south also. But this time we have more warmth in the West. Plus the surface high will crest over the south while we get the flow off the still very warm Great Lakes.

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

50 / 49 partly- mostl cloudy.   Some light showers and clouds sticking around on/off the next day / day + half as the trough figs in.   Cold sinking into the upper Midwest and pushes south and east Mon - Thu.   Coldest is Mon nigh - Wed AM.   Widespread freezes another for those who have had a freeze and first for the rest - most, if not all.   Beyond there moderation by the 14th to normal / slight above into the and beyond mid month.  Do thinks it by means of back and forth slightly favoring slightly warmer.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 77 (2020)
NYC: 75 (2020)
LGA: 78 (2020)
JFK: 74 (2020)



Lows:

EWR: 23 (1976)
NYC: 24 (1976)
LGA: 27 (1971)
JFK: 25 (2019)


Historical:

 

1864: On Election Night, a violent tornado strikes a ferry on the Mississippi River near Chester, Illinois, blowing away all but the hull. The boiler and engines are found up the bluff. Half of Chester was destroyed, and twenty died during the storm.


1893: Tropical storm from Gulf dissipated off MD 2.39 inches at Washington, DC. (Washington Weather Records - KDCA)
 

1913 - The freshwater fury , a rapidly deepening cyclone, caused unpredicted gales on the Great Lakes. Eight large ore carriers on Lake Erie sank drowning 270 sailors. Cleveland OH reported 17.4 inches of snow in 24 hours, and a total of 22.2 inches, both all-time records for that location. During the storm, winds at Cleveland averaged 50 mph, with gusts to 79 mph. The storm produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Buffalo NY, and buried Pickens WV under three feet of snow. (9th-11th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1926 - A tornado in Charles County of southern Maryland killed seventeen persons. (The Weather Channel)

1926: An estimated F3 to F4 tornado tore through La Plata, Maryland, killing 14 individuals at a small school. This storm caused 17 deaths and injured 65 others. 

1972: Boston, Massachusetts on the 8th and 9th had storm surge tides, coastal damage, wind damage and inland flooding. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1977: A major blizzard struck the eastern two-thirds of South Dakota, western Minnesota, and northwest Iowa through the 10th. A strong area of low pressure moved from northeast Colorado across north central Iowa bringing a variety of problems to the region. On the 8th, the storm began as rain with temperatures in the 50's in most areas. The tri-state area was then coated with freezing rain and sleet before the precipitation changed to snow. Up to 6 inches of snow fell in northwest Iowa with wind gusts up to 65 mph making travel impossible. Amounts were generally 4 to 12 inches across eastern South Dakota with gusts to 70 mph. Portions of western Minnesota were the hardest hit with snow amounts up to 14 inches and winds howling up to 80 mph. Drifts piled up to 8 feet deep across portions of Minnesota. Hundreds of cars were stranded across the area as the snow piled up. Two of the stranded vehicles were trucks transporting turkeys. As the temperatures plunged about half of the turkeys were prematurely frozen. The winds also blew down trees, power lines, and several radio towers.  (Ref. Wilson Weather History)
 

1982 - Seven tornadoes touched down in southern California, three of which began as waterspouts. The waterspouts moved ashore at Point Mugu, Malibu, and Long Beach. The Long Beach tornado traveled inland ten miles causing much damage. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Showers and gusty winds associated with a cold front helped extinguish forest fires in the Appalachian Region and clear out smoke in the eastern U.S. Thunderstorms produced locally heavy rains from eastern Texas to the Tennessee Valley. Longview TX received 3.12 inches of rain, including two inches in two hours, Tupelo MS was soaked with 2.80 inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a strong cold front produced severe weather from eastern Oklahoma to central Indiana. Hail more than two inches in diameter was reported around Tulsa OK. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - High winds prevailed along the eastern slopes of the Rockies from the afternoon of the 8th into the early morning hours of the 9th. Winds of 50 to 80 mph prevailed across the northwest chinook area of Wyoming, with gusts to 100 mph. Winds in Colorado gusted to 97 mph at Fritz Peak (located near Rollinsville) the evening of the 8th, and early in the morning on the 9th, gusted to 78 mph west of Fort Collins. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)


1991: Canadian high pressure over the Great Lakes was responsible for record lows from Texas to the Ohio Valley and Gulf Coast including: Peoria, IL: 9°, Springfield, IL: 9°, Toledo, OH: 12°, Lansing, MI: 12°, Chicago, IL: 14°, Paducah, KY: 14°, Des Moines, IA: 15°, Fort Wayne, IN: 15°, St. Louis, MO: 16°, Indianapolis, IN: 17, Lexington, KY: 17, Detroit, MI: 18, Akron, OH: 18°, Columbus, OH: 18°, Cincinnati, OH: 19°, Youngstown, OH: 19°-Tied, Little Rock, AR: 20°, Jackson, KY: 20°, Louisville, KY: 20°, Memphis, TN: 20°, Kansas City, MO: 23°, Baton Rouge, LA: 26°, Houston, TX: 29°, San Antonio, TX: 29°, Mobile, AL: 30°, New Orleans, LA: 32°. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

1996 - The Veteran's Day storm of November 9-14, 1996 may be the most severe early season lake effect snow (LES) storm the Great Lakes has witnessed in the past fifty years. At the height of the storm, over 160,000 customers were without power in Greater Cleveland alone, as the storm produced isolated snowfall tallies approaching 70 . As usual with these LES events, the Veteran's Day storm battered snowbelt communities downwind of each of the Great Lakes while nearby towns went unscathed. (University of Illimois WW2010)

1998: Iowa and Minnesota on the 9th & 10th:
Extremely strong storm system moves across the Great Plains. Minnesota 28.43 inches mercury and Iowa 28.54 inches mercury. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1999: More record warmth across the Midwest. For the third day in a row, un-November like weather treated residents of the Midwest. Some of the record highs included Green Bay WI with 74 degrees and Marquette MI with 73. The Marquette high was also a record for November. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

2002: Laden with tropical moisture, an early season winter storm brought gusty winds and snow to the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada in California and heavy rains to the lower elevations. At Chagoopa Plateau, a storm total of 80 inches of snow was recorded. Up to the 10 inches of rain fell in the foothills, with the town of Johnsondale receiving 16.38 inches of rain in just three days beginning on the 7th through the 10th. Numerous roads were closed due to flooding and mudslides with many residents losing power. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

[SACRUS]

 

10H:06M of daylight and will lose around 50mins more till Dec 21 solstice.   Still losing between 2 and 1 .2 mins more each day this month.

 

 

[qg_omega]

Beautiful day again

[JerseyWx]

Next week looks pretty chilly.  My highest forecast is 52.

Tuesday will be a struggle to hit 40.  More 20's to come.

[psv88]

7 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Next week looks pretty chilly.  My highest forecast is 52.

Tuesday will be a struggle to hit 40.  More 20's to come.

December is 2.5 weeks away…

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Revisiting the above post now that some time has passed. The general idea about being cautious about outlier model runs that lack support holds.

Today's 12z run of the GFS:

The National Blend of Models shows NYC's temperatures falling through the 50s during the showers/rain. That's somewhat warmer than previously shown on the guidance, but 40s remains a possibility. The outlier notion of an accumulating snowstorm is not plausible.

Yeah, the Great Lakes have been getting the heaviest snows with all these cutter and hugger storm tracks in recent years. 
 

 

[qg_omega]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the Great Lakes have been getting the heaviest snows with all these cutter and hugger storm tracks in recent years. 
 

 

It’s all lake effect

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

It’s all lake effect

The LES event will follow from the circulation of a synoptic event that brought snow from Chicago to Detroit and will deliver an appreciable/significant snowfall in Ottawa, Montreal and Quebec City.

[steve392]

Great Notre Dame football game last night in the snow showers!

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

It’s all lake effect

This is one of the more impressive lake effect events on Lake Michigan this time of year as a lobe of the TPV tracks behind the synoptic low just east of the Great Lakes.

[the_other_guy]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like a version of last January when the coldest departures went to our south also. But this time we have more warmth in the West. Plus the surface high will crest over the south while we get the flow off the still very warm Great Lakes.

 

 

 

Can you ever just enjoy BN? The jet is too strong, Cold to our north. Raging pacific. The cold is too deep, cold to our south.

If we listened to you last week, it would be approaching 70 mid month. I find your posts very informative, but with an endless warmth the world is ending agenda. You undermine your own intelligence with it (and you are intelligent)

[Stormlover74]

Euro next Monday 

[wdrag]

No thread attm for 1) the Tue wind advisory potential 10A-10P (marginal since the 850 jet doesn't increase past 40 kt til near sunset) and 2) the first flakes of the season at NYC CP ASOS...again hit or miss during Tue morning-early afternoon.  

Flurries are coming in the exceptionally unstable low level lapse rate to 750MB -momentum transfer from roughly down below 9000' (-12C 850 temp ANOMALY for this early in the season)..therefore mixing near 40 kt, especially late Tuesday and  spewing virga/sct flurries/sprinkles into NYC with the BL temp a little too warm to be assured flurries at the CP ASOS but I think it will happen.  This in association with the northeast departing 12hr 190M 5H HFallC and the oncoming 210M 5H HRiseC. IE... a high amplitude cold trough aloft getting ready to quickly exit the northeast USA. 

I saw the CFS comment a couple days ago about multi consecutive snow cycles for the interior NYC subforum tomorrow.  I'm not a CFS fan and so I dont look at it very often.  I did pay attention to the comment.  It's a climate model so I doubt if it has the BL temp handled as well as the standard Global EC/GFS/ECAI.  Even the ECAI still lags all other modeling and looks hopeful for cold rain into early Monday afternoon across most of the NYC subforum, but it looks like the BL temp is too warm  for wet snow melting on pavement except maybe our nw NJ hills into the Catskills during the midday-afternoon hours, above 1000 feet. 

Fairly interesting pattern for Nov given the return of the strong 5H Block to eastern Canada-Greenland. 

 

[wdrag]

21 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro next Monday 

Monitor but dont take the bait...once cycle and EPS has nil.  Probably a tease but with the block as it is possibilities will present, but will they ever express as reality this month?  

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Monitor but dont take the bait...once cycle and EPS has nil.  Probably a tease but with the block as it is possibilities will present, but will they ever express as reality this month?  

Eps has a transfer. Its a possibility but still early in the season.

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Can you ever just enjoy BN? The jet is too strong, Cold to our north. Raging pacific. The cold is too deep, cold to our south.

If we listened to you last week, it would be approaching 70 mid month. I find your posts very informative, but with an endless warmth the world is ending agenda. You undermine your own intelligence with it (and you are intelligent)

Parts of the area were around 70° a few times in the last few days which were well above guidance from the forecasts 6-10 days ago which were too cold. 

I think what you are referencing about this week into mid-month is that we had a recent short term strong wave break leading to a strong block. So this drove a much stronger TPV into the Great Lakes with a colder forecast for the coming week.

Once in a while we do get a colder period than originally forecast. But I am accurately describing that the core of the cold will miss the area again. Has nothing to do with lack of enjoyment or agendas. 

I don’t think that you have a warm agenda after making this post around a week ago. I am cutting you some slack since it was before the models started showing such a strong blocking pattern. So maybe you can find it in your heart to go easy on my description of the mid-month period before the recent model shift to colder with the stronger blocking.

This is your post

looks like a solidly above normal month ahead.

 

Not by a lot, but it won’t be close to normal. New normal old normal whatever. 

 

if I still have my outdoor shower going at the beginning of November with no end date in sight, that’s a warm intro to winter

 

[donsutherland1]

A storm brought snow from Chicago to Toronto earlier today. The stage is now set for a signifant to major lake effect snow event around Lake Michigan tonight into tomorrow. 

That storm will drag a  strong cold front will across the region this evening and tonight bringing some showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm. Following its passage, an early taste of winter-like temperatures will be in store for a short time.

As colder air drills into the region tomorrow, the temperature will fall through the lower 50s and through the 40s. A few rain showers are possible. Well north and west of New York City, some snow showers or snow flurries are possibe.

Tuesday will be unseasonably cold. The temperature will rise from the lower 30s into just the lower 40s in New York City. Outside the City, widespread lows in the 20s are possible Tuesday morning.

Wednesday through Friday will see highs mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s. 

The Deep South could see the temperature fall to record low levels, particularly on Tuesday. Parts of Florida will likely see a freeze.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around October 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter.

The SOI was +7.95 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.495 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 54% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.6° (0.4° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.1° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, wdrag said:

Monitor but dont take the bait...once cycle and EPS has nil.  Probably a tease but with the block as it is possibilities will present, but will they ever express as reality this month?  

I will take it as small sign of progress if we can actually get a transfer to go south of Long Island for a change without the storm getting suppressed in later runs.

 

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I will take it as small sign of progress if we can actually get a transfer to go south of Long Island for a change without the storm getting suppressed in later runs.

 

Gfs is starting to show this . This would most likely be a New England Threat with a big block in place. Like you said it's nice to see this solution.