Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs

[Jns2183]

I feel good with my 2.5” for Harrisburg call. 

I can see Harrisburg getting 2" while linglestown and some West shore locations gets 5"

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[Summit Snow]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1219 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-020530-
/O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0010.251202T0600Z-251203T0300Z/
/O.EXB.KBGM.WW.Y.0026.251202T0700Z-251202T2300Z/
Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-
Pike-Southern Wayne-
Including the cities of Towanda, Tunkhannock, Honesdale,
Hazleton, Damascus, Montrose, Milford, Scranton, Wilkes-Barre,
Hallstead, Sayre, and Equinunk
1219 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 6
  inches.

* WHERE...Bradford, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Northern Wayne, Pike,
  Southern Wayne, Susquehanna, and Wyoming Counties.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Localized amounts around 7 inches possible
  over the higher elevation, especially in Pike and Wayne counties.
  Snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour are expected during the
  morning hours.

[Ruin]

So know the storm is going to be done around 1-2pm? since when? sat it showed snow till 6-7pm

[WmsptWx]

1 hour ago, Ruin said:

So know the storm is going to be done around 1-2pm? since when? sat it showed snow till 6-7pm

Timing is always the most incorrect part of guidance.

[Jonesy56]

59 minutes ago, Ruin said:

So know the storm is going to be done around 1-2pm? since when? sat it showed snow till 6-7pm

Brother, you have access to the models just like the rest of us. Even going back to Sat runs, GFS/Euro/NAM were showing any meaningful frozen precip exiting the Hbg region by 1-2PM. This has been looking like a quick, ~6 hr type of event for a number of days now.

   

[canderson]

1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

I can see Harrisburg getting 2" while linglestown and some West shore locations gets 5"

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Yup. And I can see Lancaster getting barely any accumulation. That rain line is sneaking north imo 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

49 minutes ago, canderson said:

Yup. And I can see Lancaster getting barely any accumulation. That rain line is sneaking north imo 

The rain line sneaking north -- a tale as old as time.   NWS's latest map.....

[Itstrainingtime]

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

The rain line sneaking north -- a tale as old as time.   NWS's latest map.....

It better thump from the onset. Otherwise, even these numbers might not materialize. 

[Itstrainingtime]

WGAL responds to the predicted last minute shift north:

 

[Jns2183]

WGAL responds to the predicted last minute shift north:

 

I stand by 15 mile prediction of a lot to a little

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[canderson]

The fact timing has shifted into a full daylight storm isn’t great either for those who like snow cover down here. 

[Itstrainingtime]

I think @Blizzard of 93should still do pretty well...although the mix line often ends up even farther NW than short-term models indicate. The rest of us need a thump, which is still quite possible. 

[Jns2183]

The fact timing has shifted into a full daylight storm isn’t great either for those who like snow cover down here. 

It's suppose to start by 3-4am and be done by 12-1. I'm not feeling the timing plays much into it here

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[GrandmasterB]

Nowcasting is not what it used to be, but in this situation it may come into play given how tight the gradient is forecast to be between a trace and 4”. We have seen models underestimate WAA, but we’ve also seen them underestimate evaporative cooling. Will be interesting to see play out and hopefully everyone gets a nice snow tomorrow. 

[Superstorm]

I think [mention=12693]Blizzard of 93[/mention]should still do pretty well...although the mix line often ends up even farther NW than short-term models indicate. The rest of us need a thump, which is still quite possible. 

Thump is key for Lancaster and York.

The models that “show” thump give us the highest potential.


.

[Jns2183]

Who here is setting alarm for 4am to wake up?

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[GrandmasterB]

2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Who here is setting alarm for 4am to wake up?

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I’ll get out of bed for sure, but if it’s rain I’m heading right back 

[canderson]

Capitol complex closed tmrw - going to be hilarious when it’s raining by 9 am 

[Blizzard of 93]

45 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Who here is setting alarm for 4am to wake up?

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I’ll be sleeping because it is not supposed to start until closer to 6 am, Lol!

[Blizzard of 93]

The 18z GFS says hello!

[Blizzard of 93]

CTP :
 

SYNOPSIS...
* The first widespread plowable snowfall of the season will
  cause travel impacts and disruptions early Tuesday
* Arctic cold front will deliver snow showers/squalls and bitter
  cold temperatures Thursday through Friday morning
* Reinforcing cold blast will ensure the first part of December
  will be colder than the historical average with the potential
  for another storm system this weekend or early next week

 

[Blizzard of 93]

CTP with a very detailed forecast here :

SHORT TERM /3 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Quick moving storm to bring the first widespread plowable
snowfall of the season to central PA early Tuesday. The snow
accumulation will result in travel impacts and disruptions for
the Tuesday morning commute to work and school.

Key Takeaways/Messages:

*Snow onset 3-6AM window from west to east (give or take 1hr)
 with temps cold enough to support accumulation and
 deteriorating road conditions
*Heaviest snow 5-10AM west to 7AM-12PM east with rates generally
 <1 in/hr (0.50-0.75" range)
*Snow end time 10AM-2PM west to east; snow showers or flurries
 linger through the evening downwind of Lake Erie over the
 western Alleghenies and Laurel Highlands
*Total snowfall in the 2-4/3-5" range for most of the area;
 exceptions are the far southeast (lower amounts 0.5-2") due to
 rain/wintry mix and the Coal region into the Poconos (higher
 amounts 4-6")
*Sullivan County has the highest probability (50-70%) of
 localized snowfall >6"
*Snow character will initially be on the dry side with temps in
 the 20s but trend wetter/slushy as temps rise near/above
 freezing by the early afternoon
*No significant wind impacts expected with this system; winds
 will increase early Tuesday night with gusts up to 20 mph

We are most confident in a widespread moderate to high end
winter wx advisory scenario given the fast moving nature of the
system. We anticipate the highest snowfall totals over the
northeast to east-central quadrant of the CWA or to the east of
US-15 and north of I-81/I-78.

Any melted snow or slush will refreeze Tuesday night with low
temps in the lower 20s.