Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs

[Jns2183]

I feel good with my 2.5” for Harrisburg call. 

I can see Harrisburg getting 2" while linglestown and some West shore locations gets 5"

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[Summit Snow]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1219 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-020530-
/O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0010.251202T0600Z-251203T0300Z/
/O.EXB.KBGM.WW.Y.0026.251202T0700Z-251202T2300Z/
Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-
Pike-Southern Wayne-
Including the cities of Towanda, Tunkhannock, Honesdale,
Hazleton, Damascus, Montrose, Milford, Scranton, Wilkes-Barre,
Hallstead, Sayre, and Equinunk
1219 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 6
  inches.

* WHERE...Bradford, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Northern Wayne, Pike,
  Southern Wayne, Susquehanna, and Wyoming Counties.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Localized amounts around 7 inches possible
  over the higher elevation, especially in Pike and Wayne counties.
  Snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour are expected during the
  morning hours.

[Ruin]

So know the storm is going to be done around 1-2pm? since when? sat it showed snow till 6-7pm

[WmsptWx]

1 hour ago, Ruin said:

So know the storm is going to be done around 1-2pm? since when? sat it showed snow till 6-7pm

Timing is always the most incorrect part of guidance.

[Jonesy56]

59 minutes ago, Ruin said:

So know the storm is going to be done around 1-2pm? since when? sat it showed snow till 6-7pm

Brother, you have access to the models just like the rest of us. Even going back to Sat runs, GFS/Euro/NAM were showing any meaningful frozen precip exiting the Hbg region by 1-2PM. This has been looking like a quick, ~6 hr type of event for a number of days now.

   

[canderson]

1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

I can see Harrisburg getting 2" while linglestown and some West shore locations gets 5"

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Yup. And I can see Lancaster getting barely any accumulation. That rain line is sneaking north imo 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

49 minutes ago, canderson said:

Yup. And I can see Lancaster getting barely any accumulation. That rain line is sneaking north imo 

The rain line sneaking north -- a tale as old as time.   NWS's latest map.....

[Itstrainingtime]

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

The rain line sneaking north -- a tale as old as time.   NWS's latest map.....

It better thump from the onset. Otherwise, even these numbers might not materialize. 

[Itstrainingtime]

WGAL responds to the predicted last minute shift north:

 

[Jns2183]

WGAL responds to the predicted last minute shift north:

 

I stand by 15 mile prediction of a lot to a little

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[canderson]

The fact timing has shifted into a full daylight storm isn’t great either for those who like snow cover down here. 

[Itstrainingtime]

I think @Blizzard of 93should still do pretty well...although the mix line often ends up even farther NW than short-term models indicate. The rest of us need a thump, which is still quite possible. 

[Jns2183]

The fact timing has shifted into a full daylight storm isn’t great either for those who like snow cover down here. 

It's suppose to start by 3-4am and be done by 12-1. I'm not feeling the timing plays much into it here

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[GrandmasterB]

Nowcasting is not what it used to be, but in this situation it may come into play given how tight the gradient is forecast to be between a trace and 4”. We have seen models underestimate WAA, but we’ve also seen them underestimate evaporative cooling. Will be interesting to see play out and hopefully everyone gets a nice snow tomorrow. 

[Superstorm]

I think [mention=12693]Blizzard of 93[/mention]should still do pretty well...although the mix line often ends up even farther NW than short-term models indicate. The rest of us need a thump, which is still quite possible. 

Thump is key for Lancaster and York.

The models that “show” thump give us the highest potential.


.

[Jns2183]

Who here is setting alarm for 4am to wake up?

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[GrandmasterB]

2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Who here is setting alarm for 4am to wake up?

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I’ll get out of bed for sure, but if it’s rain I’m heading right back 

[canderson]

Capitol complex closed tmrw - going to be hilarious when it’s raining by 9 am