Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 46 with .26” of rain. 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 0z Euro & GFS now show a chance out on December 4th.

Hopefully that’s the beginning of the Winter tracking fun & games.

I'll take it for early December. I think we all do OK this winter, disproportionately better the further north imho 

[canderson]

.2” rain for me overnight 

[ChescoWx]

We picked up between 0.24" to 0.35" of rain overnight. The weather finally turns sunnier for the next 3 days with temperatures not too far from normal for late November. Rain chances increase by Tuesday night into Wednesday with temperatures by Wednesday PM not too far from 60 degrees! We turn sharply colder by Thanksgiving and the rest of the holiday weekend.

[canderson]

I just bought a snowblower, so it won’t ever snow again. 

[Voyager]

More and more I wish I'd have stayed in Arizona. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

Depressing but informative . 

[Itstrainingtime]

4 hours ago, canderson said:

.2” rain for me overnight 

Exactly the same amount here.

[mahantango#1]

 .24 rain last night and this morning. For the month so far .82.

[MAG5035]

Think there’s still a bit of work to be done for setting us up for the first widespread winter event of the early season. Cold shot Thanksgiving into the weekend has looked more transient with troughing dumping into the western US to set up the first half of the week following Thanksgiving. Allows for heights to more quickly rebuild in the eastern US with moderating temps by the time Sun/Mon roll around. Think any system in that timeframe of the first half of the week opening up December probably cuts. 

Teleconnection situation on models/ensembles shows developing -WPO/-EPO, good for sending cold air down thru Canada into the US. Countering is a generally +NAO and eventually -PNA, which will allow for SE ridging to try to edge up in the eastern US, at least initially. The -EPO/-WPO regime looks to have some staying power, so I think as long as we maintain that we can eventually work more consistent cold eastward and press the storm boundary down. Just looks like this is initially going to start in the west. Obviously still a pretty long lead time right now. Overall I’m pretty optimistic for things in December right now. 

At any rate, the Thanksgiving cold shot is still fairly potent. Perhaps not anything historic by any means, but definitely cold with temp departures of -8 to -10ºF looking like a pretty good bet area-wide Thanksgiving thru about Saturday or so. LES potential in PA doesn’t look as significant as the previous couple bouts of it we’ve had the last couple weeks that reached deeper into C-PA. Flow in the wake of the system that ushers the cold looks generally more WNW, which would keep more persistent LES more bottled up in the favored NW PA snow belt with focus being there and in western NY below Buffalo. Could be more of an opportunity of the usual snow showers reaching further into PA on Black Friday as the flow veers more NW briefly before heights start to build and shut off the flow.  

[ChescoWx]

Some additional details on White Christmas history and probabilities across Chester and SE Berks Counties including the storm dates and snow amounts on the ground both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

[WmsptWx]

Remove the interim tag at halftime.

[mahantango#1]

22 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Remove the interim tag at halftime.

Definitely!

[WmsptWx]

Look at this. Get rid of all the unnecessary shit at the line, all the stupid shifts and focus on blocking, running, and passing, and the offense looks damned good. 

 

James Franklin can go straight to Hell for ruining this season. Straight to Hell. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

42 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Remove the interim tag at halftime.

Emotional hires never work out well, and I love Terry as much as anyone. 

But also, We Are!!!

[WmsptWx]

28 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Emotional hires never work out well, and I love Terry as much as anyone. 

But also, We Are!!!

Okay so let's remove the emotion. 

 

1) Gateway was one of the best programs in the state when he ran it. So Smith is known throughout the WPIAL as a program builder and a winner. 

 

2) He is already known as a great recruiter. Penn State recruits well in Philadelphia and Jersey suburbs, DC/NOVA, and the Hampton Roads. Where they seem to struggle a little bit is in Western PA, where the best football is played in the state. Perhaps some kids from Farrell, Aliquippa, Pine-Richland, and other places start to sniff around a little more instead of going straight to Pitt, West Virginia, and Ohio State when they're wanted. 

 

3) He once obliterated his team after a 27-0 win for lack of effort. Players seem to respond to somebody who is going to provide you with the tools to be the best but then expects you to do so. 

 

Look at the list of candidates. Who do you think is automatically a better long term plan? Kalen DeBoer? Maybe but that's an expensive "What if?" Lane Kiffin isn't the least bit interested, Mike Elko is getting paid by the Cult, Eli Drinkwitz absolutely STINKS, Matt Rhule STINKS, Bob Chesney from James Madison is an absolute unknown based on the Chaos of Cignetti, which, if Indiana doesn't win a playoff game or two, that dude starts feeling heat fast. 

 

Joe Brady is likely staying in the league, Brian Hartline will probably get paid to wait out Ryan Day, so who is left? 

 

Remove the tag. Give him two years. If it doesn't work, in two years you go after the shiniest new hire.

 

The fans are chanting "Terry" as I type this.

[WmsptWx]

That'll do it. The entire country just saw players endorse the guy. The search is over. 

[Itstrainingtime]

"It’s my locker room."

This team...for this team to drop 6 straight and play like this in response?

Give it to him. @Mount Joy SnowmanI think you make a valid point, but I don't know how you look past him right now.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Emotional hires never work out well, and I love Terry as much as anyone. 

But also, We Are!!!

Yes we are!!!

[pawatch]

29 degrees heavy frost this morning. Wind going to pick back up.

[mahantango#1]

9 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

"It’s my locker room."

This team...for this team to drop 6 straight and play like this in response?

Give it to him. @Mount Joy SnowmanI think you make a valid point, but I don't know how you look past him right now.

[ChescoWx]

After a frosty start in spots, we should see sunny skies with temperatures not too far from normal for both today and tomorrow. Rain chances increase by Tuesday afternoon with some spots seeing the potential for up to 0.50" of rain before it ends on Tuesday night. Wednesday looks like our one warmer day before we turn back to well below normal temperatures for the Thanksgiving Holiday and weekend.

[canderson]

11 hours ago, WmsptWx said:

Okay so let's remove the emotion. 

 

1) Gateway was one of the best programs in the state when he ran it. So Smith is known throughout the WPIAL as a program builder and a winner. 

 

2) He is already known as a great recruiter. Penn State recruits well in Philadelphia and Jersey suburbs, DC/NOVA, and the Hampton Roads. Where they seem to struggle a little bit is in Western PA, where the best football is played in the state. Perhaps some kids from Farrell, Aliquippa, Pine-Richland, and other places start to sniff around a little more instead of going straight to Pitt, West Virginia, and Ohio State when they're wanted. 

 

3) He once obliterated his team after a 27-0 win for lack of effort. Players seem to respond to somebody who is going to provide you with the tools to be the best but then expects you to do so. 

 

Look at the list of candidates. Who do you think is automatically a better long term plan? Kalen DeBoer? Maybe but that's an expensive "What if?" Lane Kiffin isn't the least bit interested, Mike Elko is getting paid by the Cult, Eli Drinkwitz absolutely STINKS, Matt Rhule STINKS, Bob Chesney from James Madison is an absolute unknown based on the Chaos of Cignetti, which, if Indiana doesn't win a playoff game or two, that dude starts feeling heat fast. 

 

Joe Brady is likely staying in the league, Brian Hartline will probably get paid to wait out Ryan Day, so who is left? 

 

Remove the tag. Give him two years. If it doesn't work, in two years you go after the shiniest new hire.

 

The fans are chanting "Terry" as I type this.

Texas basketball recently had an exact same situation. When Chris Beard got fired for hitting his girlfriend, Rodney Terry stepped in and took them to the elite 8. They immediately gave him a 3 year contract. 

The team was garbage under his direct command and he was fired in 2 years. 

Be careful. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said:

Low of 32. Not gonna lie, Terry rockin the 409 pin had me in some kinda way. With that said, I stand by what I said last night, that it would be unwise to make an emotional hire based on what we’re all feeling at the current moment. 

[WmsptWx]

4 minutes ago, canderson said:

Texas basketball recently had an exact same situation. When Chris Beard got fired for hitting his girlfriend, Rodney Terry stepped in and took them to the elite 8. They immediately gave him a 3 year contract. 

The team was garbage under his direct command and he was fired in 2 years. 

Be careful. 

Which is why I would give Smith two years max. With the Portal and NIL, you no longer have to give a new coach an entire recruiting cycle to build a team. Theoretically speaking Smith would mitigate or minimize the exodus to Blacksburg and that's even if the kids planning to join the used car salesman haven't already discovered he's entirely full of shit. That alone is reason enough to consider a short term deal. 

 

He said something very very concerning last night at the presser in that Penn State is going to win games and lose games and will win more than they lose. That likely sticks and will come up as to why he may not be hired. Penn State doesn't want to lose games. Even being a realist, you're going to be spending the money to win everything, right now, all the time. His bit of realism may have sunk him. 

[pawatch]

Buck trailing a doe. 

[canderson]

4 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Which is why I would give Smith two years max. With the Portal and NIL, you no longer have to give a new coach an entire recruiting cycle to build a team. Theoretically speaking Smith would mitigate or minimize the exodus to Blacksburg and that's even if the kids planning to join the used car salesman haven't already discovered he's entirely full of shit. That alone is reason enough to consider a short term deal. 

 

He said something very very concerning last night at the presser in that Penn State is going to win games and lose games and will win more than they lose. That likely sticks and will come up as to why he may not be hired. Penn State doesn't want to lose games. Even being a realist, you're going to be spending the money to win everything, right now, all the time. His bit of realism may have sunk him. 

You can’t give a head coach a 2 year deal

in football. It’s suicide.