Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 46 with .26” of rain. 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 0z Euro & GFS now show a chance out on December 4th.

Hopefully that’s the beginning of the Winter tracking fun & games.

I'll take it for early December. I think we all do OK this winter, disproportionately better the further north imho 

[canderson]

.2” rain for me overnight 

[ChescoWx]

We picked up between 0.24" to 0.35" of rain overnight. The weather finally turns sunnier for the next 3 days with temperatures not too far from normal for late November. Rain chances increase by Tuesday night into Wednesday with temperatures by Wednesday PM not too far from 60 degrees! We turn sharply colder by Thanksgiving and the rest of the holiday weekend.

[canderson]

I just bought a snowblower, so it won’t ever snow again. 

[Voyager]

More and more I wish I'd have stayed in Arizona. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

Depressing but informative . 

[Itstrainingtime]

4 hours ago, canderson said:

.2” rain for me overnight 

Exactly the same amount here.

[mahantango#1]

 .24 rain last night and this morning. For the month so far .82.

[MAG5035]

Think there’s still a bit of work to be done for setting us up for the first widespread winter event of the early season. Cold shot Thanksgiving into the weekend has looked more transient with troughing dumping into the western US to set up the first half of the week following Thanksgiving. Allows for heights to more quickly rebuild in the eastern US with moderating temps by the time Sun/Mon roll around. Think any system in that timeframe of the first half of the week opening up December probably cuts. 

Teleconnection situation on models/ensembles shows developing -WPO/-EPO, good for sending cold air down thru Canada into the US. Countering is a generally +NAO and eventually -PNA, which will allow for SE ridging to try to edge up in the eastern US, at least initially. The -EPO/-WPO regime looks to have some staying power, so I think as long as we maintain that we can eventually work more consistent cold eastward and press the storm boundary down. Just looks like this is initially going to start in the west. Obviously still a pretty long lead time right now. Overall I’m pretty optimistic for things in December right now. 

At any rate, the Thanksgiving cold shot is still fairly potent. Perhaps not anything historic by any means, but definitely cold with temp departures of -8 to -10ºF looking like a pretty good bet area-wide Thanksgiving thru about Saturday or so. LES potential in PA doesn’t look as significant as the previous couple bouts of it we’ve had the last couple weeks that reached deeper into C-PA. Flow in the wake of the system that ushers the cold looks generally more WNW, which would keep more persistent LES more bottled up in the favored NW PA snow belt with focus being there and in western NY below Buffalo. Could be more of an opportunity of the usual snow showers reaching further into PA on Black Friday as the flow veers more NW briefly before heights start to build and shut off the flow.