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Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs


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Plenty of lows below freezing across most of the valley locations including Nottingham, Warwick Township, West Bradford, West Chester, Devault with the lowest the 29.1 degree reading at Warwick. At our higher ridge spots like here in East Nantmeal we got no lower than 38.9 degrees this morning. Temperatures during the day have been running 5 to 7 degrees below normal during the last couple of days and this chilly trend looks to continue through at least the next week taking us into the first week of November.  We stay dry till midweek when we will turn our attention to a possible coastal storm which may impact the region from Wednesday night into Friday.

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19 minutes ago, pawatch said:

 

Appears Melissa is really going to really dump some rain in Jamaica.

I have a friend who just spent a week in Jamaica. He posted last night that he got out of there before they shut down the airports. But he has some other friends that didn't make it off the island before they shutdown the airports, so they are stuck there.

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This morning saw quite a few valley spots across the area fall below freezing. Warwick Township our typical cold spot fell to 29.4 degrees. Here just a few miles south but 250 feet higher in East Nantmeal we saw a low of 36.7 degrees this was our chilliest morning since last April 17th when we reached 34.2 degrees. Higher ridge locations have still not experienced a frost or freeze so far this autumn. Our cool autumnal pattern continues this week with the potential of another coastal storm by mid to late week. This storm has the potential to bring some widespread beneficial rains to the area. We will remain with temperatures below normal through next weekend.image.png.298f7298db3505aad52dcc2b89673e89.pngimage.thumb.png.d5b89179361ca53bd0e2b2025c6a8f80.png

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35 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

I have a friend who just spent a week in Jamaica. He posted last night that he got out of there before they shut down the airports. But he has some other friends that didn't make it off the island before they shutdown the airports, so they are stuck there.

Oh man....

I love severe weather anomalies, but I think I'd be scared poopless if I were stuck there. Prayers that his friends (and as many others as are possible) remain safe as they ride out this beast.

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2 hours ago, canderson said:

2nd day I’ve gotten lower than you - interesting. 34 here. 

Noticed that, interesting indeed. I think sometimes when the inversions are quite shallow that I sit juuuuust above them at my new location. I say “new” even though we’ve been here going on three years ha, but our last place sat about 100’ lower and I got noticeably colder lows over there. 

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LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Confidence continues to increase in a widespread, soaking
rainfall from late Wednesday through Thursday. Surface low
pressure will track northward into Pennsylvania as its parent
upper trough interacts with an upper low to our northeast,
pulling a plume of moisture into Pennsylvania from the Atlantic.
The trough becomes negatively tilted as it approaches the
region, which should center the strongest synoptic scale forcing
right over Central PA Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
NBM QPF ranges from right around an inch over northwestern PA,
to an inch and a half for areas east of I-99 and south of I-80.
It is worth noting that there are still quite a few ensemble
members that suggest portions of south-central PA could see
upwards of 2 inches of rain. WPC has expanded the marginal risk
of excessive rainfall to include all of Central Pennsylvania,
but with the drier than normal conditions over the past few
weeks, the rainfall should largely be beneficial.

In addition to the rainfall, winds will be gusty on Thursday
with a fairly tight pressure gradient around the low. Winds
gusts of 20 to 30 mph are expected, with some gusts to 35 mph
possible in the higher terrain of the Alleghenies.

While there are still some timing differences in the models,
expect rainfall to gradually taper off late Thursday into early
Friday as the low begins to move off to the north. Lake effect
and upslope rain showers will continue through the weekend as
upper troughing remains in place over the northeastern United
States. High temperatures through the weekend will remain near
to slightly below normal, generally ranging from the upper 40s
to the mid to upper 50s. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s.
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Some lower spots across the area saw lows in the 20's with Warwick the chilliest spot at 26.4 degrees. Here just a few miles south of there the low was almost 12 degrees warmer at 38.2. We should continue with below normal temperatures for at least the next week. The big weather story will be the beneficial rainstorm that looks likely to arrive by Wednesday evening and continue into Friday morning before clearing out in time for the trick or treaters on Halloween. This could be our most significant general rain event since the end of July. Some models are showing as much as 2 inches for many areas.

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