Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine--Advisory Forthcoming

[GaWx]

12Z Euro H5 114 hits CHS:

[WxWatcher007]

Closer to the coast than 00z, but a departure from the clear landfall at 06z. Humberto is pulling away as the ridge rolls over the top so the escape route probably closes. Still a lot to figure out with not a lot of time. 

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Closer to the coast than 00z, but a departure from the clear landfall at 06z. Humberto is pulling away as the ridge rolls over the top so the escape route probably closes. Still a lot to figure out with not a lot of time. 

Then per other sources it stalls just offshore for 24+ hours

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Then per other sources it stalls just offshore for 24+ hours

[GaWx]

“Hilton Head landfall Thursday morning on euro” way out at hour 144 or so with devastating amounts of rainfall in SC. Then drifts S to near SAV.

 

[WxWatcher007]

Note how the ridge above slams the door shut for an escape, even though Humberto is able to initially exert some influence. It leads to a prolific rain event...

[Eskimo Joe]

22 minutes ago, GaWx said:

“Hilton Head landfall Thursday morning on euro” way out at hour 144 or so with devastating amounts of rainfall in SC. Then drifts S to near SAV.

The sound you just heard was every emergency manager in South and North Carolina furiously trying to order extra water rescue teams.

[WxWatcher007]

Don’t look at the specifics. I’m just highlighting the threat of widespread high end rainfall. That signal has been there consistently, even though the axis of heaviest rain has bounced around. 

 

[olafminesaw]

21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Note how the ridge above slams the door shut for an escape, even though Humberto is able to initially exert some influence. It leads to a prolific rain event...

I could see in a setup like this a primary flood zone near/North of where the center stalls, as well as a secondary flood zone where banding sets up away from the core of the system. With onshore flow and moisture being wrung out between the storm and the HP it the secondary banding could overperform

[olafminesaw]

Pretty grim for a mean

[WxWatcher007]

13 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Pretty grim for a mean

It looks like the ensemble members on balance don’t have that coastal stall. The slower members stay OTS

 

[NorthHillsWx]

The high end rain potential here is very scary in the Carolina’s especially with what happened last year. That needs to be the messaging right now no one needs to focus on intensity yet

[Eskimo Joe]

12z Euro is a Matthew redux for a large portion of the Carolinas.

[wthrmn654]

Funny no one's talking about the 12z euro ai run......

 

Doesn't come to shore anywhere it lingers south until the high to north weakens and comes to the north east around 983 mb close to long island...

[Kraychav]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12z Euro is a Matthew redux for a large portion of the Carolinas.

Total noob here. I follow this board pretty closely for weather info, and I understand about 10% of what I read. However, I'm learning. This comment really caught my eye.

I was at Ground Zero for Matthew (and Florence) here in southeastern NC. I mean, we had Jim Cantore in our town and everything. One if the biggest issues with Matthew was that we'd had a lot of rain prior to that storm. Right now, however, it is extremely dry in most of our part of the state. I assume that would make a huge difference when comparing potential outcomes of this storm to Matthew, or am I totally off base?

[wthrmn654]

1 minute ago, Kraychav said:

Total noob here. I follow this board pretty closely for weather info, and I understand about 10% of what I read. However, I'm learning. This comment really caught my eye.

I was at Ground Zero for Matthew (and Florence) here in southeastern NC. I mean, we had Jim Cantore in our town and everything. One if the biggest issues with Matthew was that we'd had a lot of rain prior to that storm. Right now, however, it is extremely dry in most of our part of the state. I assume that would make a huge difference when comparing potential outcomes of this storm to Matthew, or am I totally off base?

Extremely dry can lead to extreme run off until the ground gets moist enough to absorb rain.  

[wthrmn654]

Google models look to mainly stay offshore then go up coast in various ways to. 

https://www.weathernerds.org/models/genc.html?&inittype=zoom&initfield=SST_Anomaly_Surface&initcycle=determine&initfhour=120&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=630&initrange=55.000000000000:230.000000000000:20.000000000000:300.000000000000&initcx1=NaN&initcy1=NaN&initcx2=NaN&initcy2=NaN&initcross=False&initsound=False&initsoundx=429&initsoundy=291&initloop=True&initoverlay=False&initlstart=000&initlend=360&initlint=6&initol1=SST_Anomaly_Surface&initol2=null&initol3=null&initol4=null&initol5=null&initcities=Off&inithgwys=Off&inittracks=On&initlows=On&initlatlon=Off

[wthrmn654]

Going be interesting to see if the AI models can be good like what they did for Erin, again. 

[Newman]

Should have PTC 9 at the 5pm or 8pm advisory at the latest, it's coming up on Tomer Burg's site as a PTC now. By the way, some really nice value added products on his tropics site:

polarwx.com/tropical

[jlauderdal]

Extremely dry can lead to extreme run off until the ground gets moist enough to absorb rain.  

Also can take more precip, refer to Flash Flood Guidance. The terrain causes extra problems..8 inches of rain in NC is very different than Sofla.

[marsman]

Schools closed Monday in Brunswick County NC (most southern county)