Invest 94L—70% 2 day and 90% seven day odds of development

[NC US Geological Survice]

TriPol, Humberto doesn't kick so much as the other system escapes.

Deepmind 18z suggests the position of 94L relative to Humberto, once 94L reaches about Nassau, is the key to its landfall prospects. At 26-27°N, if it's a little faster and north of due west from Humberto, some members reach SC as early as Monday night. Slower members get no farther than 28°N (about Cape Canaveral's latitude) before getting sucked toward Humberto and OTS. To my eye, it looked like a 50/50 split. 

Here's my take: if Humberto becomes a major east of the Bahamas, and it moderately scoots NW while growing in size, whatever 94L becomes after getting over Hispanola is gonna put on some brakes due to Fujiwhara. That's why I don't see the low making a CONUS landfall in the cards; for us in the SE U.S., the effects are then limited to coastal erosion from the two systems and maybe several inches for whoever sits along the Carolina coasts nearest the low as it gets yoinked east. 

 

[olafminesaw]

2 hours ago, TriPol said:

I don;t understand the physics of how Humberto kicks the other system into the east coast. 

It doesn't, last night's run of the Euro has a stronger blocking high over Humberto slowing it down and allowing 94L to be pulled into the coast by the ULL. Without Humberto 94L would have a higher chance of landfall

 

[NorthHillsWx]

6z GFS slams the storm into the Carolina’s as a hurricane 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

6z GFS slams the storm into the Carolina’s as a hurricane 

 

[NC US Geological Survice]

T-storm consolidation south of Hispanola now, in the Caribbean.