2025-2026 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread

[franklin NCwx]

Gfs doesn't dig the upper low as far west as the rgem. Gfs goes from Chattanooga to GA. Rgem digs it down to central Bama 

[BretWx]

I'd still take it all day. 

 

[franklin NCwx]

AIgfs upper low track is almost identical to the RGEM. Much better run the the gfs

[Tyler Penland]

1 hour ago, CheoahBald1 said:

RGEM is something else


.

It did an excellent job with the CAD over the weekend. Not sure how that translates but its the best model Canada puts out for sure LOL

[ncjoaquin]

[Hvward]

Just now, ncjoaquin said:

That will do.  Check please.

[franklin NCwx]

Just now, Hvward said:

That will do.  Check please.

Negative tilt over Augusta!

[ncjoaquin]

Just now, Hvward said:

That will do.  Check please.

Agreed! That will do. 

[Tyler Penland]

7 minutes ago, Hvward said:

That will do.  Check please.

[Met1985]

17 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said:

Doesn't get much better than this especially from the Euro.

[wncsnow]

The Euro trended stronger with the ULL. WNC is in a great spot!

[Maggie Valley Steve]

The good thing is I'll be able to blow the snow off the driveway with the leaf blower! 

[Sw NC weather]

It sure would be nice if models started to agree with what the euro just gave us. But you never know with these upper level lows, there will be changes up until go time Friday night. One good thing is ULL always produce localized banding that if you can get under one you will blow by predicted totals.

[Tyler Penland]

I don't know what's going on but this is the second night in a row I've had house-shaking wind roaring down the holler. Wild and weird.

[Tyler Penland]

Euro also spitting out some absolutely ridiculous windchills Sunday morning.

[wncsnow]

18 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

Euro also spitting out some absolutely ridiculous windchills Sunday morning.

The wind will be brutal. Lots of blowing snow and drifting

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

45 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

I don't know what's going on but this is the second night in a row I've had house-shaking wind roaring down the holler. Wild and weird.

Not sure if this has anything to do with it or not, but:

https://x.com/joshgriffithwx/status/2016722503079543036?s=46

 

[Met1985]

Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-

Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-

Catawba-Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-

Transylvania-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-

Cabarrus-Union-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke

Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-

Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern

Polk-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union-Chester-

Greenwood-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-

Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-Southern

Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-

Including the cities of Poplar, Fountain Inn, Tuxedo, Tuckasegee,

Gastonia, Westminster, Gumlog, Greenville, Clemson, Newton,

Crouse, Anderson, Concord, Abbeville, Franklin Springs, Pine

Mountain, East Flat Rock, Marion, Hendersonville, Dysartsville,

Boydville, Cullowhee, Kannapolis, Oakway, Huntersville, Walhalla,

Chimney Rock State Park, Clinton, Royston, Salisbury, Lavonia,

Stecoah, Valdese, Robbinsville, Fingerville, Hot Springs,

Trinity, Newland, Mooresville, Fletcher, Old Fort, Hickory,

Glassy Mountain, Canon, Marshall, Taylorsville, Brevard,

Blackstock, Rock Hill, Mocksville, Stony Point, Candler, Mountain

City, Middleton, Fero, Indian Trail, Micaville, Glenwood,

Cornwell, Mountain Rest, Almond, Banner Elk, Great Falls,

Advance, Walnut, Swiss, Sylva, St. Stephens, Wolf Mountain, Black

Mountain, Union, Patterson, Inman, Granite Falls, Highlands,

Canton, Celo, Mill Spring, Ruckersville, Gaffney, Saluda, Reed

Creek, Monroe, Calhoun Falls, Nebo, Ninety Six, Baldwin, Greer,

Weddington, Luck, Mauldin, Farmington, Taylors, Spartanburg,

Tryon, Charlotte, Busick, Rocky Bottom, Duncan, Ramseytown,

Faust, Spruce Pine, Hartwell, Fork Church, Toccoa, Kings

Mountain, Catawba, Seneca, Fork Shoals, Dacusville, Pleasant

Grove, Franklin, Columbus, Cornelia, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Berea,

Wellford, Elberton, Asheville, Monarch Mills, Chester,

Statesville, Ashford, Cruso, Jonas Ridge, Rutherfordton, Ware

Shoals, Dana, Matthews, Bethlehem, Lincolnton, Fortsonia,

Burnsville, Easley, Waterville, Shelby, Cove Creek, Millersville,

Luada, Clarkesville, Little River, Hollywood, Nuberg, Lyman,

Cashiers, Alarka, Rainbow Springs, Sawmills, Demorest, Clayton,

Allenstand, Mars Hill, Laurens, Simpsonville, Cedar Mountain,

Morganton, Wesser, Landrum, Ellendale, Waynesville, Ingalls,

Spindale, Kyle, Kings Creek, Hiddenite, Lenoir, Boiling Springs

Sc, Forest City, Etowah, and Bryson City

216 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY

MORNING...

 

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and

  7 inches east of I-26. Total accumulations between 2 and 4 inches

  across the remainder of the area. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph.

 

* WHERE...Northeast Georgia, western North Carolina, and Upstate

  South Carolina.

 

* WHEN...From Friday afternoon through Sunday 

[BretWx]

6Z GFS looking good: 

[BretWx]

00z EURO: 

[strongwxnc]

Look at that KCLT bulls eyes on the map above. Wow. Both the GFS and EURO are solid. Hope to continue these today for sure. 

 

[Met1985]

Looks like everything is a go with the overnight models.  This morning NAM looked wonky but the gfs looked good except for the shadow over Buncombe county but the more west the low forms the better our moisture will be from the East. The border counties have no problem at all. Forcing and moisture will be abundant.  Honestly I don't think GSP is really catching that but a foot plus along the border. I'd go with a general 5 to 10 inches closer to the border and a general 4 to 8 inches away here in the mountains.  Heck 4 inches is still a heck of a storm that most haven't seen in years and back to back winter weather events is awesome! Not to mention the Euro suddenly is showing something else for next Thursday.... So we are off to the races.

[ncjoaquin]

1 minute ago, Met1985 said:

Looks like everything is a go with the overnight models.  This morning NAM looked wonky but the gfs looked good except for the shadow over Buncombe county but the more west the low forms the better out moisture will be from the East. The border counties have no problem at all. Forcing and moisture will be abundant.  Honestly I don't think GSP is really catching that but a foot plus along the border. I'd go with a general 5 to 10 inches closer to the border and a general 4 to 8 inches away here in the mountains.  Heck 4 inches is still a heck of a storm that most haven't seen in years and back to back winter weather events is awesome! Not to mention the Euro suddenly is showing something else for next Thursday.... So we are off to the races.

Good assessment! I agree with all of this.

[Met1985]

7 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said:

Good assessment! I agree with all of this.

Thank you. I really like how we are sitting with this.

[ncjoaquin]

Euro holding steady.

[franklin NCwx]

3 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said:

Euro holding steady.

That was the best run yet for the western areas!

[Hvward]

Here is my first call map. Might have to up it especially west of Asheville if the Euro keeps firing. Looking to see what the NAM 3km has for us today it seems to be built for systems like this.

[Met1985]

11 minutes ago, Hvward said:

Here is my first call map. Might have to up it especially west of Asheville if the Euro keeps firing. Looking to see what the NAM
3km has for us today it seems to be built for systems like this.

Conservative but I understand that is best for the public.  Better to bust high than low. 

[Sw NC weather]

EPS is a huge uptick. Extrapolating it would be 7-10” with ratios across the mountains. Let’s get the short range models to hone in on this.