2025-2026 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread

[franklin NCwx]

7 minutes ago, Hvward said:

18z GFS drops the snow line around 50 miles or so.  Puts the NW mountains back in the snow game.

Im liking the later phase flatter solution.  Hopefully that continues. Be nice to be more sleet less ice

[Maggie Valley Steve]

1 minute ago, BretWx said:

IMO for our area an Ice Storm Warning should go up soon. FRAM ZR with the 18z GFS still showing .70in IMBY.

Warnings will go up tomorrow morning per GSP. Ice Storm Warning or Winter Storm Warning remains to be seen. I've got to say the GFS has led the way with the Storm in various ways. 

[Met1985]

Good trends for lights out fellas lol.

[franklin NCwx]

Just now, Met1985 said:

Good trends for lights out fellas lol.

If it keeps trending we can get that lead finger and get a few inches of snow on the ground.

[buckeyefan1]

Ya'll, I've been gone since late yesterday evening at the hospital in cae and I'm skeered to go into the storm thread 

[BretWx]

9 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

If it keeps trending we can get that lead finger and get a few inches of snow on the ground.

This would make it worse. At this point we need to be prepared,,, even a few days ago... for a possible severe ice storm... one we haven't seen in 20 years or so. 

Barely any snow is on the table at this point. It's coming down to ZR and SLEET. 

[buckeyefan1]

7 minutes ago, BretWx said:

This would make it worse. At this point we need to be prepared,,, even a few days ago... for a possible severe ice storm... one we haven't seen in 20 years or so. 

Barely any snow is on the table at this point. It's coming down to ZR and SLEET. 

All these model runs are not helping with my '02(03?) and '14 CAE ice ptsd. I absolutely LOVE a good sleet storm though

[franklin NCwx]

8 minutes ago, BretWx said:

This would make it worse. At this point we need to be prepared,,, even a few days ago... for a possible severe ice storm... one we haven't seen in 20 years or so. 

Barely any snow is on the table at this point. It's coming down to ZR and SLEET. 

It would mean less freezing rain, especially for your area. Im not talking a snowstorm.  If you get it to phase later and get an initial start as snow quickly followed by sleet before the freezing rain. Right now its very little sleet and too much freezing rain

[franklin NCwx]

1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said:

All these model runs are not helping with my '02(03?) and '14 CAE ice ptsd. I absolutely LOVE a good sleet storm though

I would prefer sleet too!

[Als23]

2 hours ago, cold air aloft said:

Met and Steve, when is the last time y’all remember Haywood County having a major ice event, especially up through the Balsams?

In my recollection it’s been maybe 20 years or more. A very rare occurrence around these parts if that verified.

Can't remember last time Haywood had a bad ice storm. Even '02and'05 wasn't anything.  

[BretWx]

Ouch. 

[GoAPPS]

6 minutes ago, BretWx said:

Ouch. 

I’m guessing those lower totals in the southwest mountains are from the Euro amping the system so much that it changes over to just plain rain? Not complaining, if we’re not gonna get any snow, I’d rather it just be rain.

[Maggie Valley Steve]

The G-IV flew its High Altitude mission this afternoon. I'm looking forward to see what results we see with the 00Z Guidance.

[WXNewton]

21 minutes ago, GoAPPS said:

I’m guessing those lower totals in the southwest mountains are from the Euro amping the system so much that it changes over to just plain rain? Not complaining, if we’re not gonna get any snow, I’d rather it just be rain.

I think it was actually a little less precip that run.

[franklin NCwx]

18 minutes ago, GoAPPS said:

I’m guessing those lower totals in the southwest mountains are from the Euro amping the system so much that it changes over to just plain rain? Not complaining, if we’re not gonna get any snow, I’d rather it just be rain.

Correct.  Turns us over to heavy rain. 

[SnowDawg]

SW NC mountains start to get out of the CAD wedge too the further you go, which is the primary source for the low level cold needed for sustained freezing rain.

[Moonhowl]

With the 20 degree F freezing rain the NWS has forecast for Saturday night, I guess the top of Mt Mitchell will be having a tropical rain.

[Tyler Penland]

This is just... obnoxious. 1 degree standing between the NW mountains and snow at the end of the 3km NAM

[Als23]

Ice chances in parts of Haywood (as usual) are decreasing. Wishing no lights out for anyone. Gotta keep my Mom on her bipap ventilator. 

[gopack42]

I don't know about this one.  I get home tomorrow, but I'm thinking about heading to my brother's in Statesville Sat morning vs being home alone at my place for this one.  He has a generator, we would all be together, etc.  Statesville will get hit pretty rough as well, but my thought is to be with a generator and more people.  I'd like to be home to experience it, but if I'd be out of power for days by myself, it could be a challenge. 

[BretWx]

I imagine we'll have an Ice Storm Warning hoisted for a lot of us by this afternoon at least.

Almost now-casting time w/ looking at what's going on out West, etc.

 

[BretWx]

All of the overnights are very concerning. 

[BretWx]

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/idss-map/mapgen.php?office=GSP&summary=true&pointpreferences=GSP&ptype=prob_ice&product=high_end&2026012312

[Met1985]

20 minutes ago, BretWx said:

I imagine we'll have an Ice Storm Warning hoisted for a lot of us by this afternoon at least.

Almost now-casting time w/ looking at what's going on out West, etc.

 

They'll need to do something quick. I mean the public has the jist of things but get info out.

[Met1985]

15 minutes ago, BretWx said:

All of the overnights are very concerning. 

Not good.

[WNC_Fort]

I’ll say the attitude has changed here locally in the last 24 hours. Most people think it’s a “bust” and won’t do anything. It’s unfortunate the hype that happened early with the snow because people aren’t understanding the ice threat 

[Met1985]

12 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

I’ll say the attitude has changed here locally in the last 24 hours. Most people think it’s a “bust” and won’t do anything. It’s unfortunate the hype that happened early with the snow because people aren’t understanding the ice threat 

People think no snow means no storm. I've had to tell family that this is worst. 

[Maggie Valley Steve]

Ken Graham is doing a great job across social media and cable hitting hard the dangers from ice and what the NWS is doing from a public information and forecasting perspective. Ken is a great manager or 'cat herder' as it's affectionately referred to in the weather service circles. Ken was the Meteorologist in Charge for NWS Slidell, LA during Katrina. He later moved to the NHC as Director and now Director of the NWS.

[BretWx]

12Z HRRR just through 7AM Sunday. 

[WNC_Fort]

I think messaging from WLOS/WYFF could be stronger. Think most local emergency offices are putting out strong messages on social media. But, there’s information overload on FB. I think people see confusion and just take it as no one knows. 
 

I think messaging needs to be stronger on the power outage likelihood and the cold that follows