E PA/NJ/DE Autumn 2025 Obs/Discussion

[RedSky]

12z euro op says forgetta bout anything

 

[JTA66]

Glad to see Dr. No is already in mid-season form.

Picked up a little more than 0.50” yesterday. Currently 57F. Maybe I can reach 60F if the sun pops out.

[ChescoWx]

12z Euro ensembles only a couple panels with any somewhat significant snow

[ChescoWx]

All 3 of the major ensemble or average runs of the European / GFS and Canadian all have some measurable snow on average on Tuesday. 

[Fields27]

Feels good to be back and tracking something. Especially so early in the season. With that said the past few years have left us all scarred. Seems like every storm either cuts west or shears out and goes out to sea as a weak mess. This is trending in the way of the weak miss OTS. Hopefully we break the trend soon. Measurable snow is where im setting the bar for next week. We will have the cold. Let's just get some precip!

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[Fields27]

Happy hour GFS doubles down and is really amped. Rainy outcome. Idk about you guys but I'd much rather see an amped solution this far out.

Edit: Still a nice thump of snow NW of 95 verbatim.

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[simbasad2]

18z GEFS coming in with a pretty evenly distributed amount of members going for snow, too far north and rain, and too far south and miss. The track of this storm and its behavior is dependent on many factors, namely timing, track of the shortwave as it rounds the base of the TPV lobe, and how strong the TPV can actually suppress this thing south. It is certainly possible that the TPV suppresses this storm too far south which is what the Euro AI is showing. I think the GFS solution of a changeover to rain is unrealistic, and a much more likely fail mode is that the shortwave is too flat and goes out to sea. The 18z Euro should be in range tonight if not for the early morning 06z run, so we'll have more guidance to go off of for this 18z suite

 

[BBasile]

Just had a heavy downpour... high rate of 5.14"/hour.  Picked up 0.14" in a couple minutes.  Winds gusting nicely behind it.  

[Kevin Reilly]

3 minutes ago, BBasile said:

Just had a heavy downpour... high rate of 5.14"/hour.  Picked up 0.14" in a couple minutes.  Winds gusting nicely behind it.  

Yea light rain here followed by a squall line and outta here a bit dramatic. 

[simbasad2]

New to Americanwx so I'm still trying to figure things out here. How far usually 'til a storm thread is made?

[Albedoman]

1 hour ago, simbasad2 said:

New to Americanwx so I'm still trying to figure things out here. How far usually 'til a storm thread is made?

snow weenie amounts of 4-6+inches of snow and or .25 inch of ice   for 2-3 runs with DR No and the GFS also agreeing  and  within 3 days of the event will usually get a good one started in this forum.  We are a long way from that now. LOL 

Last year, it only took winter weather advisory level events to kick one up - we are so snow starved and have been spanked and run down the beaten path with a bunch of events that tuned out to be absolutely jack. This forum is pretty much gun shy for starting storm threads by having been burned so much the last 5 years with pity storms. In the MA forum, you will roasted over the coals for jinxing their forum by starting one. LMAO

[ChescoWx]

Happy Thanksgiving to all of you! With the passage of last night’s cold front, we will now see a sustained period of colder than normal temperatures. Of note November will finish as another below normal temperature month. This will be the 3rd below average temperature month over the last 4 months with only September finishing with above average temperatures. Today looks mostly cloudy and breezy with the sun returning tomorrow and Saturday. Rain arrives by Sunday afternoon and ends in the evening. We then see a chance of snow arriving by Tuesday morning before it is likely to turn to rain from south to north during the day Tuesday.

[penndotguy]

12 hours ago, Albedoman said:

snow weenie amounts of 4-6+inches of snow and or .25 inch of ice   for 2-3 runs with DR No and the GFS also agreeing  and  within 3 days of the event will usually get a good one started in this forum.  We are a long way from that now. LOL 

Last year, it only took winter weather advisory level events to kick one up - we are so snow starved and have been spanked and run down the beaten path with a bunch of events that tuned out to be absolutely jack. This forum is pretty much gun shy for starting storm threads by having been burned so much the last 5 years with pity storms. In the MA forum, you will roasted over the coals for jinxing their forum by starting one. LMAO

Agree I think 3 days out from the potential is reasonable, we in this zone have been burned so often even in the 3 day window. My thinking is wait till the event is in the US so the guidance can better pickup on the atmosphere. 

[LVblizzard]

12z GFS gives everyone away from the immediate coast a very nice 6-12” storm. UKMET and Canadian are warmer but north of I-78 still gets decent accums. Let’s see what the Euro has to say.

[LVblizzard]

Euro is actually quite weak. Looks like a 2-4” stripe of snow north and west of I-95 with mixing issues in Philly. After it passes our region it strengthens and gives New England a SECS.

[simbasad2]

12z GFS and ECMWF showing similar solutions of a I-95 and NW hit. While it's still certainly possible, the chance that this storm is suppressed is appearing increasingly more unlikely and the main worry shifts to whether or not thing thing tracks too far north. The TPV over the Hudson Bay is so poorly sampled so this will be a high uncertainty event until precip onset, so don't bet all your money on one solution

[penndotguy]

12 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Euro is actually quite weak. Looks like a 2-4” stripe of snow north and west of I-95 with mixing issues in Philly. After it passes our region it strengthens and gives New England a SECS.

Miller B type of setup, at least it’s something to track

[ChescoWx]

Both the Euro and GFS have the Miller B type low developing pretty far south off the NC border - a bit unusual as in recent years we have seen lows forming more north and east. Euro a bit more strung out but would if to be believed give most folks N and W of 95 their 1st measurable snow before any mix or change to rain.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Happy Thanksgiving to you turkeys!

Early week systems looks meh for I95/fall line south and east. Maybe a  brief start as frozen along that demarcation points SE. N and W should see their first accumulating snow and mixing event. Few more weeks for climo to favor areas SE of the city.