E PA/NJ/DE Autumn 2025 Obs/Discussion

[RedSky]

12z euro op says forgetta bout anything

 

[JTA66]

Glad to see Dr. No is already in mid-season form.

Picked up a little more than 0.50” yesterday. Currently 57F. Maybe I can reach 60F if the sun pops out.

[ChescoWx]

12z Euro ensembles only a couple panels with any somewhat significant snow

[ChescoWx]

All 3 of the major ensemble or average runs of the European / GFS and Canadian all have some measurable snow on average on Tuesday. 

[Fields27]

Feels good to be back and tracking something. Especially so early in the season. With that said the past few years have left us all scarred. Seems like every storm either cuts west or shears out and goes out to sea as a weak mess. This is trending in the way of the weak miss OTS. Hopefully we break the trend soon. Measurable snow is where im setting the bar for next week. We will have the cold. Let's just get some precip!

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[Fields27]

Happy hour GFS doubles down and is really amped. Rainy outcome. Idk about you guys but I'd much rather see an amped solution this far out.

Edit: Still a nice thump of snow NW of 95 verbatim.

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[simbasad2]

18z GEFS coming in with a pretty evenly distributed amount of members going for snow, too far north and rain, and too far south and miss. The track of this storm and its behavior is dependent on many factors, namely timing, track of the shortwave as it rounds the base of the TPV lobe, and how strong the TPV can actually suppress this thing south. It is certainly possible that the TPV suppresses this storm too far south which is what the Euro AI is showing. I think the GFS solution of a changeover to rain is unrealistic, and a much more likely fail mode is that the shortwave is too flat and goes out to sea. The 18z Euro should be in range tonight if not for the early morning 06z run, so we'll have more guidance to go off of for this 18z suite