September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum

[Sundog]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

What about 40" winters? Just wondering.  

27 winters of >40 inches between 1869 and 1997

9 winters of >40 inches between 1998 and 2024

So the ratio is definitely in our favor, when adjusted for number of years it was 3:1 when it should have been more like 5:1.

For the dud years though the ratio is 1:1!!! That should have also been more like 5:1 since it's the same time periods. 

 

Basically both feast and famine has been more represented over the last 30 years, but ratio wise the famine has been severly more pronunced. 

 

[SACRUS]

 

82 / 59 - mid upper 80s today.   Front is dry and passes through later.  Cooler but another dry weekend / near normal.  Overall warmer week and beyond.  Scattered showers / storms mid week bring next rain potential otherwise dri.

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES19/ABI/SECTOR/eus/02/GOES19-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

 

[Krs4Lfe]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it reminds me of just before the rain/snow line breaches the area you often get your heaviest snow.

 

And most of the time in the 2000s and 2010s we were on the right side of the line. But since 2019, only 2021 and 2022 (for some of us) have been good winters. One day, I hope we can return to having a major snowstorm. It's been since 1/29/22 for a solid foot or so of snow in NYC. I miss that. 

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, Sundog said:

27 winters of >40 inches between 1869 and 1997

9 winters of >40 inches between 1998 and 2024

So the ratio is definitely in our favor, when adjusted for number of years it was 3:1 when it should have been more like 5:1.

For the dud years though the ratio is 1:1!!! That should have also been more like 5:1 since it's the same time periods. 

 

Basically both feast and famine has been more represented over the last 30 years, but ratio wise the famine has been severly more pronunced. 

 

The real endangered species is the near normal snowfall seasons.  Maybe the same thing is happening with our rainfall patterns too.  Everything is becoming more extreme and much more variable.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The lowest 10 year for JFK was 18.0” from 83-84 to 92-93. So this 7 year stretch has been lower that 10 year. The 7 year got down to 15.8” vs the current 14.5”.

The key difference is that snow drought ended with 93-94 and 95-96 since the climate was so much colder than our modern 2020s climate.

Unlikely we see a 50”+ season and a 70”+ season during the remainder of the 2020s within 2 years apart to break this snow drought without the greatest volcanic eruption in hundreds to thousands of years.

Unfortunately, we don’t have a reliable long range volcanic forecast system. 

Yep and that 10 year period from the mid 80s through the early 90s was also much colder than the current period so as soon as we got enough moisture we knew it would still be able to snow.  Which is exactly what happened.

 

[LibertyBell]

50 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

It's disgustingly hot. Today has a mid July feel.

it's not that hot it's very humid though.

 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

And most of the time in the 2000s and 2010s we were on the right side of the line. But since 2019, only 2021 and 2022 (for some of us) have been good winters. One day, I hope we can return to having a major snowstorm. It's been since 1/29/22 for a solid foot or so of snow in NYC. I miss that. 

That 2 day December 2003 blizzard really stands out for this.  It was a blown forecast since the rain/snow line stayed 5 miles south of us and we all got over a foot of snow from that.  As a matter of fact when it got colder on the second day of the blizzard we actually got less snow (drier air smaller snowflakes) vs when the rain/snow line was much closer to us on the first day of the blizzard.

 

[LibertyBell]

29 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

82 / 59 - mid upper 80s today.   Front is dry and passes through later.  Cooler but another dry weekend / near normal.  Overall warmer week and beyond.  Scattered showers / storms mid week bring next rain potential otherwise dri.

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES19/ABI/SECTOR/eus/02/GOES19-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

 

it's already over 80 here today, a nice downsloping W/NW wind too.

Do you think today is the hottest day here for the rest of the year, Tony?

 

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 93 (1983)
NYC: 94 (1983)
LGA: 92 (1983)
JFK: 90 (1983)


Lows:

EWR: 44 (1959)
NYC: 44 (1929)
LGA: 49 (1959)
JFK: 47 (1959)

Historical:

1846: The Great Gale of 1846, likely the remnants of a hurricane, hit Newfoundland, Canada with strong winds and high surf. 46 men and 11 boats were lost. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1875: Boston, Massachusetts has the coolest high temperature of 49 °F for the month of September. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1895: Today it was 96° in Washington DC the first of five straight record high temperatures for September dates. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1936: The 1936 hurricane did damage in Provincetown, MA on the 19th as it dropped 7.79 inches of rain in Provincetown, MA. 1936 Hurricane Track - Weather Underground

1947 - The eye of a hurricane passed directly over New Orleans, and the barometric pressure dipped to 28.61 inches. The hurricane killed fifty-one persons, and caused 110 million dollars damage. It produced wind gusts to 155 mph while making landfall over Fort Lauderdale FL two days earlier. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1955: Hurricane Ione made landfall near Morehead City, NC with winds over 100 mph. 16.63 inches of rain fell at Maysville, NC. 40 blocks of New Bern, NC were underwater at one point. Seven people lost their lives and total damage was $88 million. This was the 3rd hurricane to cross eastern North Carolina in 5 weeks. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1962: Torrential rain and significant amounts of hail fell from storms over northwest Oklahoma. A few locations in Ellis, Woodward, and Roger Mills Counties had hail drifts waist-deep. The next morning, some drifts were still two feet high. The storms brought up to 8 inches of rain across parts of northwest Oklahoma. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1967 - Hurricane Beulah deluged Brownsville, TX, with 12.19 inches of rain in 24 hours, to establish a record for that location. Hurricane Beulah made landfall on the 20th near the mouth of the Rio Grande River, where a wind gust to 135 mph was reported by a ship in the port. (19th-20th) (The Weather Channel)

1967:  Sparta, WI recorded their coldest September temperature with 19°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1980: Golfball to baseball sized hail hit St. Paul, MN. One company had 75 to 95 percent of the glass in their greenhouses smashed. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1982: On this date through the 30th, Hurricane Paul first hit El Salvador and Guatemala as a tropical storm whose heavy rains kill more than 1,000 people. It then moved back over the Pacific, where it strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 100 mph. The storm killed 8 people near Los Mochis, Mexico. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1983: While the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast basked in late summer record heat, wintry weather occurred in the Rockies behind a strong cold front. Record highs in the east included: Reading, PA: 95°, New York (Central Park), NY: 94°, Wilmington, DE: 94°, Baltimore, MD: 94°-Tied, Hartford, CT: 93 °F. (Ref. Many Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)


1983: 14 inches of snow fell just south of Great Falls, MT on this date through the 20th. 21 inches of snow fell at Nye, MT beginning the previous day through this date. Other snowfall totals: Mystic Lake, MT: 24 inches, Red Lodge, MT: 14 inches, Columbus, MT: 11 inches, Pryor, MT: 10 inches, Livingston, MT. The temperature fell to -6° at West Yellowstone, MT following the snow. The passage of a strong cold front was responsible for the wintry weather. The temperature at Denver, CO dropped from a sunny 86° to a snowy 35° in just 7 hours with the frontal passage. Kalispell and Billings, MT set record lows with 23° and 26° respectively. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - Cool autumn-like weather invaded the Central Rockies. Temperatures dipped into the 30s and 40s, with readings in the teens and 20s reported in the higher elevations. Gunnison CO was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 15 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing along a fast moving cold front produced severe weather in Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana and Michigan. Eight tornadoes were reported, including five in Indiana. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 74 mph at Wabash IND. Winds associated with the cold front itself gusted to 69 mph at Kenosha WI. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Showers and thunderstorms produced heavy rain in the Middle and Northern Atlantic Coast Region. Cape Hatteras NC was deluged with nearly 3.50 inches of rain in three hours. Syracuse NY reported 1.77 inches of rain, a record for the date, and Chatham NJ reported an all-time record of 3.45 inches in one day. Hurricane Hugo headed for the Bahamas, and Tropical Storm Iris, following close on its heels, strengthened to near hurricane force. (The National Weather Summary)

1991: An early season outbreak of Arctic air caused considerable crop damage in Iowa as temperatures fell below freezing. Temperatures fell to the mid 20s to lower 30s in most locations. Northern Iowa was the hardest hit where temperatures remained at 30 degrees or below for 8 hours. Record lows included: Valentine, NE: 17°, Timber Lake, SD: 21°, Rapid City, SD: 22°, Huron, SD: 23°, Havre, MT: 24°, Mobridge, SD: 24°, Pierre, SD: 24°, Norfolk, NE: 26°, North Platte, NE: 26°-Tied, Sioux Falls, SD: 27°, Grand Island, NE: 27°, St. Cloud, MN: 28°, Sioux City, IA: 28°, Lincoln, NE: 29°, Rochester, MN: 30°-Tied, Minneapolis, MN: 31°, Omaha, NE: 31°, Waterloo, IA: 32 °F  (Ref. Many Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

1994: Honolulu, HI recorded its all-time high temperature of 95°. Kahului, HI tied their September record high with 96°. Lihue, HI tied their daily record high with 87°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

[SACRUS]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

You'd think we'd have a summer like 1966 with all this dryness, why didn't that happen?

1966 was one of our hottest summers.

 

This and Aug 66 were similar with # 90 degree days at the main city/metro sites JFK, NYC, EWR, LGA.  1966 heat was Jun 14 - Jul 19.

 

JFK 1966

 

July 14	89	73	0.00	0.0
July 15	83	66	0.00	0.0
July 16	82	60	0.00	0.0
July 17	83	63	0.00	0.0
July 18	87	63	0.00	0.0
July 19	81	67	0.34	0.0
July 20	82	61	0.00	0.0
July 21	79	59	0.00	0.0
July 22	81	59	0.00	0.0
July 23	81	64	0.00	0.0
July 24	80	64	0.00	0.0
July 25	82	66	0.00	0.0
July 26	89	68	0.01	0.0
July 27	82	69	0.08	0.0
July 28	80	70	0.03	0.0
July 29	91	70	0.23	0.0
July 30	78	63	0.00	0.0
July 31	85	62	0.00	0.0

August 1966 JFK Airport Weather

Day	High (°F)	Low (°F)	Precip. (inches)	Snow (inches)
August 1	91	64	0.00	0.0
August 2	79	67	0.83	0.0
August 3	82	62	0.00	0.0
August 4	78	58	0.00	0.0
August 5	82	68	0.00	0.0
August 6	86	64	0.00	0.0
August 7	81	68	0.00	0.0
August 8	84	68	0.01	0.0
August 9	76	67	0.08	0.0
August 10	83	70	0.07	0.0
August 11	82	69	0.32	0.0
August 12	84	70	0.01	0.0
August 13	77	63	0.00	0.0
August 14	78	58	0.09	0.0
August 15	78	62	1.10	0.0
August 16	78	68	0.46	0.0
August 17	86	69	0.00	0.0
August 18	88	65	0.00	0.0
August 19	90	71	0.00	0.0
August 20	83	66	0.00	0.0
August 21	80	62	0.00	0.0
August 22	81	71	0.00	0.0
August 23	86	72	0.02	0.0
August 24	81	66	0.00	0.0
August 25	79	64	0.00	0.0
August 26	84	64	0.00	0.0
August 27	85	62	0.00	0.0
August 28	89	69	0.00	0.0
August 29	82	67	0.00	0.0
August 30	84	68	0.00	0.0
August 31	88	70	0.00	0.0

September 1966 JFK Airport Weather

Day	High (°F)	Low (°F)	Precip. (inches)	Snow (inches)
September 1	86	68	0.00	0.0
September 2	91	67	0.00	0.0

[LibertyBell]

Just now, SACRUS said:

This and Aug 66 were similar with # 90 degree days at the main city/metro sites JFK, NYC, EWR, LGA.  1966 heat was Jun 14 - Jul 19.

 

JFK 1966

 

July 14	89	73	0.00	0.0
July 15	83	66	0.00	0.0
July 16	82	60	0.00	0.0
July 17	83	63	0.00	0.0
July 18	87	63	0.00	0.0
July 19	81	67	0.34	0.0
July 20	82	61	0.00	0.0
July 21	79	59	0.00	0.0
July 22	81	59	0.00	0.0
July 23	81	64	0.00	0.0
July 24	80	64	0.00	0.0
July 25	82	66	0.00	0.0
July 26	89	68	0.01	0.0
July 27	82	69	0.08	0.0
July 28	80	70	0.03	0.0
July 29	91	70	0.23	0.0
July 30	78	63	0.00	0.0
July 31	85	62	0.00	0.0

August 1966 JFK Airport Weather

Day	High (°F)	Low (°F)	Precip. (inches)	Snow (inches)
August 1	91	64	0.00	0.0
August 2	79	67	0.83	0.0
August 3	82	62	0.00	0.0
August 4	78	58	0.00	0.0
August 5	82	68	0.00	0.0
August 6	86	64	0.00	0.0
August 7	81	68	0.00	0.0
August 8	84	68	0.01	0.0
August 9	76	67	0.08	0.0
August 10	83	70	0.07	0.0
August 11	82	69	0.32	0.0
August 12	84	70	0.01	0.0
August 13	77	63	0.00	0.0
August 14	78	58	0.09	0.0
August 15	78	62	1.10	0.0
August 16	78	68	0.46	0.0
August 17	86	69	0.00	0.0
August 18	88	65	0.00	0.0
August 19	90	71	0.00	0.0
August 20	83	66	0.00	0.0
August 21	80	62	0.00	0.0
August 22	81	71	0.00	0.0
August 23	86	72	0.02	0.0
August 24	81	66	0.00	0.0
August 25	79	64	0.00	0.0
August 26	84	64	0.00	0.0
August 27	85	62	0.00	0.0
August 28	89	69	0.00	0.0
August 29	82	67	0.00	0.0
August 30	84	68	0.00	0.0
August 31	88	70	0.00	0.0

September 1966 JFK Airport Weather

Day	High (°F)	Low (°F)	Precip. (inches)	Snow (inches)
September 1	86	68	0.00	0.0
September 2	91	67	0.00	0.0

The main difference between those summers was the peak temperatures in 1966 were in the more traditional July 4th week period while this year we had them in late June right after the solstice lol.  Was the number of 90/95/100 degree days also similar Tony?

 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 93 (1983)
NYC: 94 (1983)
LGA: 92 (1983)
JFK: 90 (1983)


Lows:

EWR: 44 (1959)
NYC: 44 (1929)
LGA: 49 (1959)
JFK: 47 (1959)

Historical:

1846: The Great Gale of 1846, likely the remnants of a hurricane, hit Newfoundland, Canada with strong winds and high surf. 46 men and 11 boats were lost. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1875: Boston, Massachusetts has the coolest high temperature of 49 °F for the month of September. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1895: Today it was 96° in Washington DC the first of five straight record high temperatures for September dates. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1936: The 1936 hurricane did damage in Provincetown, MA on the 19th as it dropped 7.79 inches of rain in Provincetown, MA. 1936 Hurricane Track - Weather Underground

1947 - The eye of a hurricane passed directly over New Orleans, and the barometric pressure dipped to 28.61 inches. The hurricane killed fifty-one persons, and caused 110 million dollars damage. It produced wind gusts to 155 mph while making landfall over Fort Lauderdale FL two days earlier. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1955: Hurricane Ione made landfall near Morehead City, NC with winds over 100 mph. 16.63 inches of rain fell at Maysville, NC. 40 blocks of New Bern, NC were underwater at one point. Seven people lost their lives and total damage was $88 million. This was the 3rd hurricane to cross eastern North Carolina in 5 weeks. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1962: Torrential rain and significant amounts of hail fell from storms over northwest Oklahoma. A few locations in Ellis, Woodward, and Roger Mills Counties had hail drifts waist-deep. The next morning, some drifts were still two feet high. The storms brought up to 8 inches of rain across parts of northwest Oklahoma. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1967 - Hurricane Beulah deluged Brownsville, TX, with 12.19 inches of rain in 24 hours, to establish a record for that location. Hurricane Beulah made landfall on the 20th near the mouth of the Rio Grande River, where a wind gust to 135 mph was reported by a ship in the port. (19th-20th) (The Weather Channel)

1967:  Sparta, WI recorded their coldest September temperature with 19°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1980: Golfball to baseball sized hail hit St. Paul, MN. One company had 75 to 95 percent of the glass in their greenhouses smashed. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1982: On this date through the 30th, Hurricane Paul first hit El Salvador and Guatemala as a tropical storm whose heavy rains kill more than 1,000 people. It then moved back over the Pacific, where it strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 100 mph. The storm killed 8 people near Los Mochis, Mexico. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1983: While the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast basked in late summer record heat, wintry weather occurred in the Rockies behind a strong cold front. Record highs in the east included: Reading, PA: 95°, New York (Central Park), NY: 94°, Wilmington, DE: 94°, Baltimore, MD: 94°-Tied, Hartford, CT: 93 °F. (Ref. Many Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)


1983: 14 inches of snow fell just south of Great Falls, MT on this date through the 20th. 21 inches of snow fell at Nye, MT beginning the previous day through this date. Other snowfall totals: Mystic Lake, MT: 24 inches, Red Lodge, MT: 14 inches, Columbus, MT: 11 inches, Pryor, MT: 10 inches, Livingston, MT. The temperature fell to -6° at West Yellowstone, MT following the snow. The passage of a strong cold front was responsible for the wintry weather. The temperature at Denver, CO dropped from a sunny 86° to a snowy 35° in just 7 hours with the frontal passage. Kalispell and Billings, MT set record lows with 23° and 26° respectively. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - Cool autumn-like weather invaded the Central Rockies. Temperatures dipped into the 30s and 40s, with readings in the teens and 20s reported in the higher elevations. Gunnison CO was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 15 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing along a fast moving cold front produced severe weather in Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana and Michigan. Eight tornadoes were reported, including five in Indiana. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 74 mph at Wabash IND. Winds associated with the cold front itself gusted to 69 mph at Kenosha WI. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Showers and thunderstorms produced heavy rain in the Middle and Northern Atlantic Coast Region. Cape Hatteras NC was deluged with nearly 3.50 inches of rain in three hours. Syracuse NY reported 1.77 inches of rain, a record for the date, and Chatham NJ reported an all-time record of 3.45 inches in one day. Hurricane Hugo headed for the Bahamas, and Tropical Storm Iris, following close on its heels, strengthened to near hurricane force. (The National Weather Summary)

1991: An early season outbreak of Arctic air caused considerable crop damage in Iowa as temperatures fell below freezing. Temperatures fell to the mid 20s to lower 30s in most locations. Northern Iowa was the hardest hit where temperatures remained at 30 degrees or below for 8 hours. Record lows included: Valentine, NE: 17°, Timber Lake, SD: 21°, Rapid City, SD: 22°, Huron, SD: 23°, Havre, MT: 24°, Mobridge, SD: 24°, Pierre, SD: 24°, Norfolk, NE: 26°, North Platte, NE: 26°-Tied, Sioux Falls, SD: 27°, Grand Island, NE: 27°, St. Cloud, MN: 28°, Sioux City, IA: 28°, Lincoln, NE: 29°, Rochester, MN: 30°-Tied, Minneapolis, MN: 31°, Omaha, NE: 31°, Waterloo, IA: 32 °F  (Ref. Many Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

1994: Honolulu, HI recorded its all-time high temperature of 95°. Kahului, HI tied their September record high with 96°. Lihue, HI tied their daily record high with 87°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

1983: While the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast basked in late summer record heat, wintry weather occurred in the Rockies behind a strong cold front. Record highs in the east included: Reading, PA: 95°, New York (Central Park), NY: 94°, Wilmington, DE: 94°, Baltimore, MD: 94°-Tied, Hartford, CT: 93 °F. (Ref. Many Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

 

The historic summer of 1983 going out with a bang !!!!

Looks like a clean sweep here !!!!

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 93 (1983)
NYC: 94 (1983)
LGA: 92 (1983)
JFK: 90 (1983)

[winterwx21]

36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's not that hot it's very humid though.

 

The dewpoint is 58 here right now. Nothing like the humidity that we had in the middle of the summer. Mid 80s doesn't feel bad with dewpoints in the 50s. 

[psv88]

83/64. Beautiful 

[SACRUS]

27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The main difference between those summers was the peak temperatures in 1966 were in the more traditional July 4th week period while this year we had them in late June right after the solstice lol.  Was the number of 90/95/100 degree days also similar Tony?

 

 

for JFK

 

90 degree days

1966: 14
2025: 15

95 degree days
1966: 5
2025: 4

[SACRUS]

84 / 61

 

https://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/satellite/img/vis_nj_anim.gif

[JerseyWx]

2 hours ago, anthonymm said:

It's disgustingly hot. Today has a mid July feel.

No it doesn't, today is beautiful.  Not even 80 degrees yet IMBY. Granted I know some places are warmer, but still nothing like the middle of July.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

No it doesn't, today is beautiful.  Not even 80 degrees yet IMBY. Granted I know some places are warmer, but still nothing like the middle of July.

Its hot out

 

Nasty

[donsutherland1]

At Central Park, the temperature has reached 83° so far after yesterday's 83°. Through September 23, New York City has seen at least one-in-five years reach 80° or above on each date in the second half of September. The frequency of such warmth decreases afterward.

Even during the shorter 2000-present timeframe, there has been a drop in the frequency of such warmth after September 23:

At Newark, the temperature has reached 86° so far after yesterday's 87°. Newark takes a step down in the frequency of 80° or above warmth after September 23 and again after September 26. Since 2000, the frequency of such warmth has increased on all but September 17 (likely to have more to do with sample size issues rather than a genuine cooling).