Tracking the tropics - 2025

[MJO812]

Cmc now has it but it doesn't gain any attitude after this due to confluence. Gfs is similiar. 

[WxWatcher007]

Yeah as long as you have that flow over New England this one won’t get here. Could still do something further south though. 
 

 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah as long as you have that flow over New England this one won’t get here. Could still do something further south though. 
 

 

The confluence is way different than earlier runs

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

The confluence is way different than earlier runs

It’s going to remain all over the place for a bit. A lot of uncertainty with this one with the upper level pattern the opposite of this at 00z on the Euro. But for up here we want to see that trough migrate from the SE to the GL region in future runs with far less troughing to our north lol. 

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s going to remain all over the place for a bit. A lot of uncertainty with this one with the upper level pattern the opposite of this at 00z on the Euro. But for up here we want to see that trough migrate from the SE to the GL region in future runs with far less troughing to our north lol. 

 

I would think for a SE coast hit, you'd want this to develop well SW so when it turns N and NNE, it's headed towards land at least.

For NC - NE impacts, I would think we'd want to see pretty oranges to our N and E. instead (at least on that 12z gfs) it's a ripping trough and westerlies. Also, that's a miserably weak U/L near the Panhandle, and probably would want that wayyyy north and stronger.  lol   not a good capture setup with the westerlies so closeby