Tracking the tropics - 2025

[ineedsnow]

Some 6z EPS members starting to develop something now

[ineedsnow]

12z GFS was trying again and GEFS looking interesting

[WxWatcher007]

That area is now a lemon. The GFS goes wild with it but the Euro is far more lukewarm.

[ineedsnow]

GFS vs everything else?

[ineedsnow]

we tropical next weekend?

[crownweather]

Usually when it’s the GFS versus everyone else, the GFS loses.


.

[ineedsnow]

its

1 minute ago, crownweather said:

Usually when it’s the GFS versus everyone else, the GFS loses.


.

ya but run after run has been trying.. only a week out at this point.. some AI models also have it.. perfect track at 18z just need it stronger 

[ineedsnow]

18z GEFS has some members come up but all on the weak side

[MJO812]

Im feeling this

[Michelle Davies]

Has anyone seen the 18z GFS slabbering NE?

[Michelle Davies]

Lemon now 10/30

Mandarin now 10/60

[Snowcrazed71]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Im feeling this

I'm not. I have a very big party for my father and mother-in-law for their 80th birthday next Saturday. I have about 40 to 50 people coming.

[MJO812]

43 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I'm not. I have a very big party for my father and mother-in-law for their 80th birthday next Saturday. I have about 40 to 50 people coming.

Happy Birthday

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

18z GEFS has some members come up but all on the weak side

Euro is also a step to the gfs

[MJO812]

[weatherwiz]

Doubt it would be a cane up here, waters are pretty chilly but maybe a glorified Nor'easter with gusty winds and some heavy rain and of course some high surf. 

[weatherwiz]

And Gabrielle has taken off. 

RI and up to 120 mph 

[Cyclone-68]

I dunno. I’m not feeling a storm named “Humberto” is going to break our cane futility streak. Not ominous sounding enough 

[Michelle Davies]

47 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I dunno. I’m not feeling a storm named “Humberto” is going to break our cane futility streak. Not ominous sounding enough 

Models have him as a fish major

[Michelle Davies]

48 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I dunno. I’m not feeling a storm named “Humberto” is going to break our cane futility streak. Not ominous sounding enough 

I guess Gertrude or Gladys sound more ominous to you then 

[Cyclone-68]

10 minutes ago, Michelle Davies said:

I guess Gertrude or Gladys sound more ominous to you then 

Well the G female names are not without precedent up here. Gloria in ‘85 for example. 

[Michelle Davies]

Just now, Cyclone-68 said:

Well the G female names are not without precedent up here. Gloria in ‘85 for example. 

Or whatever old person name you can think of 

[SouthCoastMA]

Mabel or Mildred would be brutal

oh, there's a Karen this year. That would be a doozy 

[WxWatcher007]

3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Doubt it would be a cane up here, waters are pretty chilly but maybe a glorified Nor'easter with gusty winds and some heavy rain and of course some high surf. 

I’m modestly intrigued. I said in my forecast that if there were an EC threat this year it’d be a shorter fuse wave that develops in the western Atlantic. That lead wave fits the bill. But it’s all just speculation at this point.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m modestly intrigued. I said in my forecast that if there were an EC threat this year it’d be a shorter fuse wave that develops in the western Atlantic. That lead wave fits the bill. But it’s all just speculation at this point.

I'm intrigued as well. Certainly something to watch, but like you said, all speculation at this point until we get something to really develop. Lots of factors shall influence that these next few days. 

I just hope nobody is really expecting a cat 3 here  I mean extratropical, subtropical, etc. storms can certainly still be noteworthy so don't want to take away from that aspect. 

[crownweather]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm intrigued as well. Certainly something to watch, but like you said, all speculation at this point until we get something to really develop. Lots of factors shall influence that these next few days. 

I just hope nobody is really expecting a cat 3 here  I mean extratropical, subtropical, etc. storms can certainly still be noteworthy so don't want to take away from that aspect. 

Yeah, given how utterly boring the weather has been here in Southern New England, even a tropical storm becoming extratropical over us would be a treat. 

[Cyclone-68]

I want a storm that’s extra tropical but identifies as a tropical storm 

[WxWatcher007]

17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm intrigued as well. Certainly something to watch, but like you said, all speculation at this point until we get something to really develop. Lots of factors shall influence that these next few days. 

I just hope nobody is really expecting a cat 3 here  I mean extratropical, subtropical, etc. storms can certainly still be noteworthy so don't want to take away from that aspect. 

Unlike Erin, it looks like the lead wave could get west enough where even if there’s a trough around there could be a land threat. Steering pattern still looks a bit weird though.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m modestly intrigued. I said in my forecast that if there were an EC threat this year it’d be a shorter fuse wave that develops in the western Atlantic. That lead wave fits the bill. But it’s all just speculation at this point.

This might finally be the one