ineedsnow Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 Some 6z EPS members starting to develop something now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 12z GFS was trying again and GEFS looking interesting 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 That area is now a lemon. The GFS goes wild with it but the Euro is far more lukewarm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 GFS vs everything else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 we tropical next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crownweather Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 Usually when it’s the GFS versus everyone else, the GFS loses. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 its 1 minute ago, crownweather said: Usually when it’s the GFS versus everyone else, the GFS loses. . ya but run after run has been trying.. only a week out at this point.. some AI models also have it.. perfect track at 18z just need it stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 18z GEFS has some members come up but all on the weak side 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 Im feeling this 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Im feeling this I'm not. I have a very big party for my father and mother-in-law for their 80th birthday next Saturday. I have about 40 to 50 people coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 43 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: I'm not. I have a very big party for my father and mother-in-law for their 80th birthday next Saturday. I have about 40 to 50 people coming. Happy Birthday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 4 hours ago, ineedsnow said: 18z GEFS has some members come up but all on the weak side Euro is also a step to the gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 Doubt it would be a cane up here, waters are pretty chilly but maybe a glorified Nor'easter with gusty winds and some heavy rain and of course some high surf. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 And Gabrielle has taken off. RI and up to 120 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 I dunno. I’m not feeling a storm named “Humberto” is going to break our cane futility streak. Not ominous sounding enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 10 minutes ago, Michelle Davies said: I guess Gertrude or Gladys sound more ominous to you then Well the G female names are not without precedent up here. Gloria in ‘85 for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 Mabel or Mildred would be brutal oh, there's a Karen this year. That would be a doozy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 3 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Doubt it would be a cane up here, waters are pretty chilly but maybe a glorified Nor'easter with gusty winds and some heavy rain and of course some high surf. I’m modestly intrigued. I said in my forecast that if there were an EC threat this year it’d be a shorter fuse wave that develops in the western Atlantic. That lead wave fits the bill. But it’s all just speculation at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m modestly intrigued. I said in my forecast that if there were an EC threat this year it’d be a shorter fuse wave that develops in the western Atlantic. That lead wave fits the bill. But it’s all just speculation at this point. I'm intrigued as well. Certainly something to watch, but like you said, all speculation at this point until we get something to really develop. Lots of factors shall influence that these next few days. I just hope nobody is really expecting a cat 3 here I mean extratropical, subtropical, etc. storms can certainly still be noteworthy so don't want to take away from that aspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crownweather Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I'm intrigued as well. Certainly something to watch, but like you said, all speculation at this point until we get something to really develop. Lots of factors shall influence that these next few days. I just hope nobody is really expecting a cat 3 here I mean extratropical, subtropical, etc. storms can certainly still be noteworthy so don't want to take away from that aspect. Yeah, given how utterly boring the weather has been here in Southern New England, even a tropical storm becoming extratropical over us would be a treat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 I want a storm that’s extra tropical but identifies as a tropical storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I'm intrigued as well. Certainly something to watch, but like you said, all speculation at this point until we get something to really develop. Lots of factors shall influence that these next few days. I just hope nobody is really expecting a cat 3 here I mean extratropical, subtropical, etc. storms can certainly still be noteworthy so don't want to take away from that aspect. Unlike Erin, it looks like the lead wave could get west enough where even if there’s a trough around there could be a land threat. Steering pattern still looks a bit weird though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m modestly intrigued. I said in my forecast that if there were an EC threat this year it’d be a shorter fuse wave that develops in the western Atlantic. That lead wave fits the bill. But it’s all just speculation at this point. This might finally be the one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 Cmc now has it but it doesn't gain any attitude after this due to confluence. Gfs is similiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 Yeah as long as you have that flow over New England this one won’t get here. Could still do something further south though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah as long as you have that flow over New England this one won’t get here. Could still do something further south though. The confluence is way different than earlier runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: The confluence is way different than earlier runs It’s going to remain all over the place for a bit. A lot of uncertainty with this one with the upper level pattern the opposite of this at 00z on the Euro. But for up here we want to see that trough migrate from the SE to the GL region in future runs with far less troughing to our north lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: It’s going to remain all over the place for a bit. A lot of uncertainty with this one with the upper level pattern the opposite of this at 00z on the Euro. But for up here we want to see that trough migrate from the SE to the GL region in future runs with far less troughing to our north lol. I would think for a SE coast hit, you'd want this to develop well SW so when it turns N and NNE, it's headed towards land at least. For NC - NE impacts, I would think we'd want to see pretty oranges to our N and E. instead (at least on that 12z gfs) it's a ripping trough and westerlies. Also, that's a miserably weak U/L near the Panhandle, and probably would want that wayyyy north and stronger. lol not a good capture setup with the westerlies so closeby 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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