Tropical Storm Erin - NOW AT 50 KTS!

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

12 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

We may have our first hurricane of the season on Thursday. Impressive bursting continues despite the slightly tilted vortex. Erin may be developing an eyewall, at least around the western and southern semicircle of the VM.

I agree likely already close to hurricane strength. Follows crossing over the 26 isotherm perfectly. And it only ramps up quickly to 29c from here. 

[wthrmn654]

00z tropical models look west 

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

00z tropical models look west 

Among the consensus models, it has been quite a trend

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

TNT45 KNHC 140238
TCDAT5
 
Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 13 2025

Satellite images show that a solid area of convection remains near 
Erin, with low-cloud motions suggesting the center is on the 
northeastern side of the thunderstorm activity.  Overall, there 
hasn't been a lot of change with the satellite presentation, and 
that is reflected in recent stable Dvorak and scatterometer 
values.  The initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory.  

The environment around Erin should remain marginally conducive 
during  the next day or so, which will likely promote gradual 
strengthening.  Thereafter, the storm is forecast to move across 
warmer waters, with potentially a decrease in shear.  This 
evolution results in a period of potential rapid intensification 
late this week, and the official forecast reflects that 
possibility.  While shear is generally forecast to increase over 
the weekend, this appears to be canceled out by large-scale 
divergence and water temperatures above 29C.  Most models respond 
to this by showing a lower rate of intensification at that time. 
The new intensity forecast is adjusted upward somewhat from the 
previous forecast beyond 24 h based on the current guidance.  
There is increasing confidence on a large and powerful hurricane 
over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean this weekend.
 
The initial motion is now 270/14 kt.  There are no significant 
changes to the forecast track or steering.  Erin should move 
westward overnight and then west-northwestward from Thursday through 
the weekend due to steering from the subtropical ridge.  The ridge 
is forecast to break by early next week, resulting in a turn towards 
the northwest or north-northwest.  The new forecast is basically an 
update of the previous forecast in the near term, and on the eastern 
side of the guidance envelope by day 5 between the consensus and the 
Google Deep Mind model.  There is still a greater than normal 
uncertainty about what impacts Erin may bring to portions of the 
Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda in the 
long range.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Locally heavy rainfall, high surf and rip currents, and
tropical-storm force winds could occur in portions of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend as
the core of Erin passes north of those islands.  Interests in these
areas should continue to monitor the progress of Erin.
 
2. While there is still uncertainty in what impacts might occur in
portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and
Bermuda next week, the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents
across the western Atlantic basin next week is increasing.  As we
approach the climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an
opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0300Z 16.3N  46.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 16.5N  48.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 17.2N  51.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 18.0N  54.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 18.9N  57.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  16/1200Z 19.8N  60.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 20.6N  62.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  18/0000Z 22.8N  66.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  19/0000Z 25.5N  68.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Patel

[WxWatcher007]

Nothing really new from the NHC. The real interest will come with the 00z suite and whether this westward adjustment due to a less aggressive Canadian trough and rebuilding Atlantic ridge continues. 

[Floydbuster]

 

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET is similar to 12Z with recurve at 71.7W

TROPICAL STORM ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 45.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.08.2025 0 16.4N 45.8W 1007 31
1200UTC 14.08.2025 12 16.7N 48.8W 1006 31
0000UTC 15.08.2025 24 17.8N 51.8W 1006 32
1200UTC 15.08.2025 36 19.0N 55.5W 1006 32
0000UTC 16.08.2025 48 20.0N 58.9W 1005 33
1200UTC 16.08.2025 60 20.5N 62.6W 1002 33
0000UTC 17.08.2025 72 20.4N 65.4W 999 32
1200UTC 17.08.2025 84 20.6N 67.2W 997 34
0000UTC 18.08.2025 96 22.3N 68.2W 994 40
1200UTC 18.08.2025 108 24.2N 69.6W 992 44
0000UTC 19.08.2025 120 26.1N 70.6W 989 46
1200UTC 19.08.2025 132 27.9N 71.3W 986 50
0000UTC 20.08.2025 144 30.0N 71.7W 982 52
1200UTC 20.08.2025 156 32.5N 71.5W 979 58
0000UTC 21.08.2025 168 35.0N 70.3W 972 62

[GaWx]

0Z Euro: 200 miles E of 12Z/recurves near 72.5W vs 75W of 12Z and yesterday’s 0Z recurving near 70W.

[TheDreamTraveler]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

0Z Euro: 200 miles E of 12Z/recurves near 72.5W vs 75W of 12Z and yesterday’s 0Z recurving near 70W.

Starting to think there's probably no chance of this making landfall on the US east coast. It could still get close but landfall really looks unlikely now.

[Kevin Reilly]

Looking at the overnight trends of the models and current state of the developing pattern; I am comfortable to say outside of high surf and rip currents, Erin is no threat to the East Coastlines.  Bermuda though still needs to keep an eye to see how close it can get with effects though.

Spoiler

 

 

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Starting to think there's probably no chance of this making landfall on the US east coast. It could still get close but landfall really looks unlikely now.

Gefs is closer

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Starting to think there's probably no chance of this making landfall on the US east coast. It could still get close but landfall really looks unlikely now.

 

30 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Looking at the overnight trends of the models and current state of the developing pattern; I am comfortable to say outside of high surf and rip currents, Erin is no threat to the East Coastlines.  Bermuda though still needs to keep an eye to see how close it can get with effects though.

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

 Landfall (Conus) has for quite awhile seemed unlikely to me. But unfortunately there’s a lingering small chance. This small chance is best shown by the somewhat scarier 6Z GFS ensemble that was just posted. Based on that and other models, I’d keep it near 10%. Also, there’s a higher chance when you add in significant effects from fairly close misses of the center.

[BarryStantonGBP]

dorians me

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 

 Landfall (Conus) has for quite awhile seemed unlikely to me. But unfortunately there’s a lingering small chance. This small chance is best shown by the somewhat scarier 6Z GFS ensemble that was just posted. Based on that and other models, I’d keep it near 10%. Also, there’s a higher chance when you add in significant effects from fairly close misses of the center.

I’d go even lower, but I guess I’d just preach caution until recon has had a chance to sample Erin and the surrounding environment before feeling too confident in the exact details of the recurve. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

180 
WTNT45 KNHC 141434
TCDAT5
 
Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 14 2025
 
Satellite imagery shows that Erin has become a little better
organized this morning, with the formation of a ragged central
dense overcast with some outer banding in the northwestern
semicircle.  Satellite intensity estimates have increased a little
during the past 6 h and are now in the 40-55 kt range.  Based on
these data, the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt.
 
Erin will be in an environment of light-to-moderate easterly 
vertical shear and moving over increasing sea surface temperatures 
during the next 48 h. This should allow a faster rate of 
intensification during this time, and Erin is now forecast to become 
a hurricane by 24 h. The environment becomes less conducive after 48 
h, with the global models forecast northwesterly shear over the 
cyclone as a large upper-level anticyclone develops to the west. 
Despite this forecast shear, the global and regional hurricane 
models forecast intensification to continue, although at a slower 
rate than during the first 48 h. Based on these forecasts, the new 
intensity forecast shows steady intensification through 48 h, 
followed by a slower rate of development during the remainder of the 
forecast period.  The new forecast is near the intensity consensus, 
and there is guidance that suggests the possibility Erin could be 
stronger than currently forecast.
 
The initial motion is now 275/15. The storm continues to be steered 
by a subtropical ridge to the north, and this ridge should steer the 
cyclone generally west-northwestward during the next three days. 
After that time, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to 
weaken or break due to the influence of the mid-latitude westerlies 
over the northeastern United States.  This evolution should lead to 
Erin turning toward the northwest or north-northwest during the 
remainder of the forecast period, although there is significant 
spread in the guidance on just how sharp this turn will be. The new 
forecast track is south of the consensus models through 48 h and 
then lies near the consensus models thereafter. Due to the spread in 
the track guidance by 120 h and beyond, there is still a greater 
than normal uncertainty about what impacts Erin may bring to 
portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and 
Bermuda in the long range.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Locally heavy rainfall, high surf and rip currents, and
tropical-storm force winds could occur in portions of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend as
the core of Erin passes north of those islands.  Interests in these
areas should continue to monitor the progress of Erin.
 
2. While there is still uncertainty in what impacts might occur in
portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and
Bermuda next week, the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents
across the western Atlantic basin next week is increasing.  As we
approach the climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an
opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/1500Z 16.4N  49.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 16.9N  51.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 17.8N  55.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 18.6N  57.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 19.4N  60.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  17/0000Z 20.3N  63.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  17/1200Z 21.3N  65.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  18/1200Z 23.5N  68.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  19/1200Z 26.5N  69.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Patel

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET: similar to last two with recurve at 71.9W:

TROPICAL STORM ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 49.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.08.2025 0 16.6N 49.1W 1005 33
0000UTC 15.08.2025 12 17.5N 51.8W 1006 33
1200UTC 15.08.2025 24 18.5N 55.5W 1004 34
0000UTC 16.08.2025 36 19.2N 58.9W 1003 35
1200UTC 16.08.2025 48 19.7N 62.3W 999 36
0000UTC 17.08.2025 60 20.1N 65.0W 996 37
1200UTC 17.08.2025 72 20.8N 67.3W 993 41
0000UTC 18.08.2025 84 22.0N 68.9W 990 44
1200UTC 18.08.2025 96 23.8N 70.3W 988 49
0000UTC 19.08.2025 108 26.0N 71.2W 985 50
1200UTC 19.08.2025 120 28.3N 71.7W 981 52
0000UTC 20.08.2025 132 30.5N 71.9W 979 52
1200UTC 20.08.2025 144 32.6N 71.0W 976 59
0000UTC 21.08.2025 156 34.6N 68.7W 970 66
1200UTC 21.08.2025 168 36.4N 65.0W 969 63