WEATHER53 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago It’s a new moon on 22nd and when tides are agitated, that usually enhances them . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 33 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: The core was essentially completely destroyed. Will be a little surprising to see it rebuild, but that convection is really impressive so we'll see. That is a gutted storm right there. Nothing really showed that happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: That is a gutted storm right there. Nothing really showed that happening Particularly impressive given its size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 Location: 26.1°N 72.5°W Moving: NNW at 10 mph Min pressure: 958 mb Max sustained: 105 mph 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_intensity_latest.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 18z models looking north and west. Nhc track again to far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 14 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: 18z models looking north and west. Nhc track again to far east. Right now Erin is moving NNW, so the GFS model might not be picking up on that. No current flights in to Erin, but last flight, had a higher pressure that the last NHC report.https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF308-2005A-ERIN.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Erin is definitely a lot healthier looking than earlier today. There may be an attempt at rebuilding the core now:https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2025_05L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_09.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, eyewall said: Erin is definitely a lot healthier looking than earlier today. There may be an attempt at rebuilding the core now:https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2025_05L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_09.html This apparent restrengthening is as predicted by the Euro, UKMET, Icon and possibly others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 32 minutes ago, eyewall said: Erin is definitely a lot healthier looking than earlier today. There may be an attempt at rebuilding the core now:https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2025_05L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_09.html I think it’s earlier collapse was much more drastic than anyone expected but given improving shear and very high ocean temps over its path the next few days I believe it recovers back to a healthy 2. I am convinced it weakened to a 1 this morning so I’d consider reaching its operational intensity as restrengthening lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 Location: 26.6°N 72.7°W Moving: NNW at 10 mph Min pressure: 958 mb Max sustained: 105 mph No change in intensity since the 2pm advisory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 59 minutes ago, GaWx said: This apparent restrengthening is as predicted by the Euro, UKMET, Icon and possibly others. Those have it taking a more west track too.... not being a broken pattern but icon has been unbelievably consistent and euro ai too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Should be noted, there are models showing it strengthening a bit more now, i think more then before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Here's the entire nhc track from the very beginning, it is clear as day they have been correcting west from the very beginning. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Some incredibly warm water near Erin right now, about 80 miles away from this buoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 16 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Some incredibly warm water near Erin right now, about 80 miles away from this buoy! But look how much it cooled due to the energy transfer to Erin as potential energy in form of ocean warmth was converted to kinetic energy. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, GaWx said: But look how much it cooled due to the energy transfer to Erin. Yeah but I didn't realize it's 87 miles east of Erin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 42 minutes ago Share Posted 42 minutes ago 20 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Yeah but I didn't realize it's 87 miles east of Erin. This is a good illustration of a hurricane transferring warmth from the tropics to higher latitudes, the role of hurricanes. Otherwise, the tropical waters would be even hotter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 35 minutes ago Share Posted 35 minutes ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted 33 minutes ago Share Posted 33 minutes ago Erin is looking good again. I suspect we’ll see an eye sometime this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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