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Hurricane Erin: 105 MPH - 958 mb - NNW @ 10


Predict her peak  

68 members have voted

  1. 1. Predict Erin’s peak

  2. 2. Will Erin landfall?

    • Yes (CONUS)
    • Yes (Canada)
    • Yes (Bermuda including brush)
    • Yes (The Caribbean)
    • No


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14 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

18z models looking north and west. Nhc track again to far east. 

Right now Erin is moving NNW, so the GFS model might not be picking up on that.

No current flights in to Erin, but last flight, had a higher pressure that the last NHC report.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF308-2005A-ERIN.png

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32 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Erin is definitely a lot healthier looking than earlier today. There may be an attempt at rebuilding the core now:
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2025_05L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_09.html

I think it’s earlier collapse was much more drastic than anyone expected but given improving shear and very high ocean temps over its path the next few days I believe it recovers back to a healthy 2. I am convinced it weakened to a 1 this morning so I’d consider reaching its operational intensity as restrengthening lol

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59 minutes ago, GaWx said:

This apparent restrengthening is as predicted by the Euro, UKMET, Icon and possibly others.

Those have it taking a more west track too.... not being a broken pattern but icon has been unbelievably consistent and euro ai too

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16 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Some incredibly warm water near Erin right now, about 80 miles away from this buoy!

image.png.a8de6170b2de325bc0651f5f563006ce.png

But look how much it cooled due to the energy transfer to Erin as potential energy in form of ocean warmth was converted to kinetic energy.

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20 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Yeah but I didn't realize it's 87 miles east of Erin. 

This is a good illustration of a hurricane transferring warmth from the tropics to higher latitudes, the role of hurricanes. Otherwise, the tropical waters would be even hotter.

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