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July Medium/ Long Range


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56 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS.  Dry and seasonably warm the next week. Perfect July 4th weekend!

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Appears the heat dome builds further West this time. Not as extreme here. 

 

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Afternoon update from the WPC ramps up the rainfall along the East Coast 

WPC snippet

 
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be focused in proximity to progressive cold fronts, stalled boundaries and 
round the upper high in the Southern Rockies. The wavy front into the eastern U.S. may be a focus for heavier rain and 
thunderstorms. This includes areas from the Corn Belt into the Midwest and Ohio Valley, Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. 

 

381864991_p168i(38).gif.af989ef0fca2e264259ac2fc187e45fb.gif

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2 hours ago, Interstate said:

The GFS we finally clear out on July 26th

 

Signs of a WNW or NW wind and cooler, maybe for 48 hours, as we near the end of the month. Another heatwave in the works for next week. 

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Guidance suggests early to mid next week(maybe beyond) will be very nice for mid-late July. After the front moves through over the weekend, Canadian HP builds southeastward into a position over NE. Low to mid 80s with reasonable dewpoints will feel like early Fall compared to what we have been dealing with lately.

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58 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Guidance suggests early to mid next week(maybe beyond) will be very nice for mid-late July. After the front moves through over the weekend, Canadian HP builds southeastward into a position over NE. Low to mid 80s with reasonable dewpoints will feel like early Fall compared to what we have been dealing with lately.

Yeah looks like a couple-few days of less swelter then the ridge builds over us late next week, which could bring some heat. But the ridge pulls west fairly quickly which brings back NW flow.

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4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah looks like a couple-few days of less swelter then the ridge builds over us late next week, which could bring some heat. But the ridge pulls west fairly quickly which brings back NW flow.

Been watching ens guidance as well. I'd trade 2 of my kids for a 2 week break from this stuff. What a relentless summer. I'm so torched from yesterday I need a day off. Just don't have it in me to push thru and another humid heat beat down. It's only mid July too.... ugh

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Guidance suggests early to mid next week(maybe beyond) will be very nice for mid-late July. After the front moves through over the weekend, Canadian HP builds southeastward into a position over NE. Low to mid 80s with reasonable dewpoints will feel like early Fall compared to what we have been dealing with lately.

We are likely done with extreme heat.  

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23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Been watching ens guidance as well. I'd trade 2 of my kids for a 2 week break from this stuff. What a relentless summer. I'm so torched from yesterday I need a day off. Just don't have it in me to push thru and another humid heat beat down. It's only mid July too.... ugh

Bart: it’s the hottest summer of my life!

Homer: it’s the hottest summer of your life SO FAR

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Heat advisory expanded N and W...

Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and
Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Northern Fauquier-Southern
Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-
840 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heat index values around 105 expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central, and northern Maryland
  and northern Virginia.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat
  illnesses.
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42 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Bart: it’s the hottest summer of my life!

Homer: it’s the hottest summer of your life SO FAR

Yep... last summer was a soupy mess. I got really tired of it. I had some unfounded optimism going into this summer because you know.... rubber bands and stuff. Optimism erased. Lol. My complaints aren't even the temps. 90 degrees with reasonable dews is totally fine. Even low 90s. The pattern has been stupid stagnant soup with little wind.

NWS Blacksburg had a quote in one of their AFDs that said "if you liked this week, you'll love next week. Looks like a carbon copy" lol. Referencing the pattern in a week timeframe and not a couple days sums up how persistent its been down this way. True groundhog day stuff. Maybe the back half of the summer breaks our way. Feels like lotto odds rd tho

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9 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Something in September will sneak up on us. Maybe not brutally hot but enough to make us mad that we are missing out on what should be good September weather.

Agreed. Some three or four day stretch of dry mid 90s heat that just feels like a crisper.

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5 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

12z gfs says Monday and Tuesday are windows-open weather with dews in the 40s and 50s!! Highs near 80 each day 

GEFS concurs (as does the EPS).

Canadian HP. Yeah baby!

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I took Monday off. Gonna explore Conquest Preserve NW of Centreville. Never been.

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