rclab Posted Tuesday at 02:19 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:19 PM 21 minutes ago, forkyfork said: most people i meet at parties hate winter Good morning forky. Time and the future are on your side. Stay warm, as always ….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted Tuesday at 02:55 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:55 PM Outside of ratter winters, I've never seen such low prospects for snow for this area in the heart of January. Very reminiscent of 2020, 2023, 2012. That being said, we've had as much snow as entire winter 2024, all of winter 2023, all of winter 2020, and all of winter 2012. So it's very unlikely we end up in ratter territory unless we see no more snow for the rest of the season. But unless we have a massive turnaround at some point this month, winter has taken a vacation from the US. Just mild and warm as far as the eye can see 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Tuesday at 03:01 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:01 PM 2003, 2005, 2006, 2010, and 2021 would like a word. Most of those Jans were cold yes but saw relatively snowless first halfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted Tuesday at 05:48 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:48 PM BAM is honking about a warmer than expected "thaw" says it might persist longer than originally expected. Still expecting a flip to cold afterwards but even they admit this thaw has some teeth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted Wednesday at 05:29 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:29 PM Attention complaint department: What's with the Koppen Climate classifications? Calling NYC "subtropical" seems like poor nomenclature. What is the utility of having NYC in the same climate classification (humid subtropical climate) as Orlando? If that's true, why are there snowbirds? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted Wednesday at 05:50 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:50 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Can we ban posts with model maps beyond hour 200? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 1 hour ago, David-LI said: Can we ban posts with model maps beyond hour 200? Those should be in banter honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago On 1/7/2026 at 12:29 PM, NorthShoreWx said: Attention complaint department: What's with the Koppen Climate classifications? Calling NYC "subtropical" seems like poor nomenclature. What is the utility of having NYC in the same climate classification (humid subtropical climate) as Orlando? If that's true, why are there snowbirds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago The moving 10-year average is decidedly subtropical - not even close to freezing. Neither December, nor February have been below freezing in the last 10 years, and January only three times. Coldest month based on the past 10 years is January at 35.3F, and this is at the park. I would imagine more urban environs, and other favorable microclimates, are even warmer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 4 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Koppen may be useful for some sort of macro-climate modeling, but not for much else. I think the "subtropical" nomenclature is off. As a speaker of English it does nothing for me. I'll take the USDA hardiness zones, unless they've been updated to make some political point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: The moving 10-year average is decidedly subtropical - not even close to freezing. Neither December, nor February have been below freezing in the last 10 years, and January only three times. Coldest month based on the past 10 years is January at 35.3F, and this is at the park. I would imagine more urban environs, and other favorable microclimates, are even warmer. No denying the recent winter warmth in the park, but I'm not sure where you will find a more urban environment. Maybe on top of a subway vent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said: Koppen may be useful for some sort of macro-climate modeling, but not for much else. I think the "subtropical" nomenclature is off. As a speaker of English it does nothing for me. I'll take the USDA hardiness zones, unless they've been updated to make some political point. I don't know... comparing to Orlando is comparing one extreme to the other. Recent means aren't substantially different than late 20th century norms at Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina, and I think everyone would agree on that being classed as subtropical. Certainly much closer to that than a true continental climate of say Minneapolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago Just now, NorthShoreWx said: No denying the recent winter warmth in the park, but I'm not sure where you will find a more urban environment. Maybe on top of a subway vent. Anywhere outside of the park where people actually live? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said: Anywhere outside of the park where people actually live? Lol. Those places are not warmer (except for the subway grate scenario) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: I don't know... comparing to Orlando is comparing one extreme to the other. Recent means aren't substantially different than late 20th century norms at Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina, and I think everyone would agree on that being classed as subtropical. Certainly much closer to that than a true continental climate of say Minneapolis. By comparison, Orlando is pretty close to true tropical thresholds in recent years. Over the past 15 years, only January has dropped below the 18C/64.4F threshold. And only by a few degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Those places are not warmer (except for the subway grate scenario) Interesting. I don't know how a park could have a warmer microclimate than surrounding urban neighborhoods. Doesn't make much sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 4 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: I don't know... comparing to Orlando is comparing one extreme to the other. Recent means aren't substantially different than late 20th century norms at Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina, and I think everyone would agree on that being classed as subtropical. Certainly much closer to that than a true continental climate of say Minneapolis. I'm not sure everyone would agree. By the way, the two charts you posted show NYC's warmest period and one of Raleigh's coldest. It still says something about how NYC has warmed, but is a stretch for the subtropical argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said: Interesting. I don't know how a park could have a warmer microclimate than surrounding urban neighborhoods. Doesn't make much sense. I agree. But it's not colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: I'm not sure everyone would agree. By the way, the two charts you posted show NYC's warmest period and one of Raleigh's coldest. It still says something about how NYC has warmed, but is a stretch for the subtropical argument. That was intentional. I wanted to limit the analysis to higher quality data, excluding the older, warm-biased rooftop station at the downtown WB office in Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 4 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: By comparison, Orlando is pretty close to true tropical thresholds in recent years. Over the past 15 years, only January has dropped below the 18C/64.4F threshold. And only by a few degrees. I kind of get the rationale for -3C being a threshold proxy for enduring winter snow cover, but what is behind the 64.4 for tropical? (apologies that we are mixing °C and °F) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: Well now it certainly won’t happen. Fantasy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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