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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability


wdrag
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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

For NYC itself I'd say the top 5 summers for heat (ignoring sensor issues) were:

1. 2010

2. 1993

3. 1983

4. 1966

5. 1953

I really wanted to include 1991 and 1955 and 1949 and 1999, these should go in the next 5.

 

 

 

 

Depends on the metric  overall summer temps (avg) , number of 90 degree days, number of 95 degree days, number of 100 degree days or higher.

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

For NYC itself I'd say the top 5 summers for heat (ignoring sensor issues) were:

1. 2010

2. 1993

3. 1983

4. 1966

5. 1953

I really wanted to include 1991 and 1955 and 1949 and 1999, these should go in the next 5.

 

 

 

there's too many summers to pick from for me to do a top 5, so I'll just list my top 5 ideal summers.

1. 2010

2. 1993

3. 1999

4. 1983

5. 1966

 

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8 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Depends on the metric  overall summer temps (avg) , number of 90 degree days, number of 95 degree days, number of 100 degree days or higher.

Yes it's really hard to do a top 5 you have to weigh them by some system (so you end up having to do math anyway haha).

Basically I'm looking for years that have at least 30 90+ degree days (there's not that many of them), at least 5 95+ degree days and at least 1 100+  degree day.

For JFK only 2010 makes that list.

For NYC it's more than that but I'm not sure it's 5.

I know for sure 2010, 1993, 1991 make this list for NYC (and maybe 1999 too?) but I don't know which others do.

1983 did not get to 100 in NYC (but 99 in September and 100 twice at JFK)

I'd still put 1983 near the top for NYC because it held the 90 degree day record until 1991 and 1993.

1953 had four 100+ degree days at NYC but I don't think it had 30 90+ degree days (although it had two of our longest heatwaves ever.

1966 also had four 100+ degree days at NYC (and three in a row at JFK) but I'm not sure it had the 30 90+ degree days I'm looking for.

1955 holds the record for NYC with 16 95+ days but I'm not sure it hit 100 in 1955 at NYC.

It's possible 1949 also belongs on this list with 5 99+ degree days at NYC (2 of which were 100+) and 8 100+ degree days at EWR but I don't know the number of 90+ degree days in that year.

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12 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

NYC 95 degree or higher saeson leaders

 

Year Rank Days >= 95 °F
1955 1 16
1988 2 14
2002 3 13
1993 3 13
1999 5 12
1953 5 12
1949 7 11
1944 7 11
1983 9 10
1980 9 10
1966 9 10
2005 12 9
1952 12 9
2010 14 8
1991 14 8

thanks Tony, out of those I think 1993, 1999, 1983, 2010 and 1991 all had at or above 30 90+ degree days, were there any others?

 

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34 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

And it still does.  You have to of course get outside of the urban jungles for it to happen though.

The urban jungle used to average lows in the upper 60s in July. Up until the 1981-2010 averages it did. 

Even in rural areas, if your dewpoints are high you're not cooling off either. 

Everyone's warming up at night. The farmland went from 65 to 68 and the city went from 68 to 71, or something like that. So yea rural still averages in the 60s but not as low into the 60s. 

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9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes it's really hard to do a top 5 you have to weigh them by some system (so you end up having to do math anyway haha).

Basically I'm looking for years that have at least 30 90+ degree days (there's not that many of them), at least 5 95+ degree days and at least 1 100+  degree day.

For JFK only 2010 makes that list.

For NYC it's more than that but I'm not sure it's 5.

I know for sure 2010, 1993, 1991 make this list for NYC (and maybe 1999 too?) but I don't know which others do.

1983 did not get to 100 in NYC (but 99 in September and 100 twice at JFK)

I'd still put 1983 near the top for NYC because it held the 90 degree day record until 1991 and 1993.

1953 had four 100+ degree days at NYC but I don't think it had 30 90+ degree days (although it had two of our longest heatwaves ever.

1966 also had four 100+ degree days at NYC (and three in a row at JFK) but I'm not sure it had the 30 90+ degree days I'm looking for.

1955 holds the record for NYC with 16 95+ days but I'm not sure it hit 100 in 1955 at NYC.

It's possible 1949 also belongs on this list with 5 99+ degree days at NYC (2 of which were 100+) and 8 100+ degree days at EWR but I don't know the number of 90+ degree days in that year.

The increasing dew points lead to the mimimums rising faster than the maximums at places like JFK. This has been the warmest July for the maximum average heat index and low temperature.The maximum average temperature at JFK has been lower this July than back in 2010 and 2011. But this July feels warmer due to the higher dew points than 2010. 
 

IMG_4256.thumb.png.a2708125ace41cd8e2279f9586677ab0.png

IMG_4258.thumb.png.e564a35b6d5aa5f31de2e5dd6f4db8db.png

IMG_4257.thumb.png.478acabb56eec94e96299148ea87a426.png

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Just now, bluewave said:

The increasing dew points lead to the mimimums rising faster than the maximums at places like JFK. This has been the warmest July for the maximum average heat index and low tempersrure. The maximum average temperature at JFK has been lower this July than back in 2010 and 2011. But this July feels warmer due to the higher dew points than 2010. 
 

IMG_4256.thumb.png.a2708125ace41cd8e2279f9586677ab0.png

IMG_4258.thumb.png.e564a35b6d5aa5f31de2e5dd6f4db8db.png

IMG_4257.thumb.png.478acabb56eec94e96299148ea87a426.png

But the average high is up there too isn't it-- I think you posted a table showing it's the second hottest (going by high temperatures) right behind 2010? And that the July mean temperature at JFK is very close to 80.0?

 

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4 minutes ago, Sundog said:

The urban jungle used to average lows in the upper 60s in July. Up until the 1981-2010 averages it did. 

Even in rural areas, if your dewpoints are high you're not cooling off either. 

Everyone's warming up at night. The farmland went from 65 to 68 and the city went from 68 to 71, or something like that. So yea rural still averages in the 60s but not as low into the 60s. 

It wouldn't surprise me if the average low for the city this july is about 76. Crazy

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The increasing dew points lead to the mimimums rising faster than the maximums at places like JFK. This has been the warmest July for the maximum average heat index and low tempersrure. The maximum average temperature at JFK has been lower this July than back in 2010 and 2011. But this July feels warmer due to the higher dew points than 2010. 
 

IMG_4256.thumb.png.a2708125ace41cd8e2279f9586677ab0.png

IMG_4258.thumb.png.e564a35b6d5aa5f31de2e5dd6f4db8db.png

IMG_4257.thumb.png.478acabb56eec94e96299148ea87a426.png

some very interesting things in these three graphs Chris!!

in the top graph, 2010 and 2011 are tied at number 1 with the same exact temperature!!

in the second graph, this July is number one but July 2010 is still very high at number 3, in between them is July 2019 (which outside of those two very hot days I don't remember any other heat).

in the bottom graph, for mins this July is number 1, but July 2010 is no slouch, it's at number 2, even though it was a much drier summer!!

 

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22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The increasing dew points lead to the mimimums rising faster than the maximums at places like JFK. This has been the warmest July for the maximum average heat index and low tempersrure. The maximum average temperature at JFK has been lower this July than back in 2010 and 2011. But this July feels warmer due to the higher dew points than 2010. 
 

IMG_4256.thumb.png.a2708125ace41cd8e2279f9586677ab0.png

IMG_4258.thumb.png.e564a35b6d5aa5f31de2e5dd6f4db8db.png

IMG_4257.thumb.png.478acabb56eec94e96299148ea87a426.png

Now I noticed a few more things--

1949 (JFK's second year of history) was the only July that averaged 85+ degrees for the max until July 1983, talk about a predictor for summers to come!! It's still in the top 10 (9th place) and 1983 is still in 3rd place!!

for *feels like* 1983 is in 4th place behind the three I had already mentioned and 1949 is just behind it in 7th place!!

for mins 1949 is even hotter than 1983?? Neither of them are in the top 5 but both are in the top 10 of all Julys, number 9 and number 10 actually!!

 

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14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But the average high is up there too isn't it-- I think you posted a table showing it's the second hottest (going by high temperatures) right behind 2010? And that the July mean temperature at JFK is very close to 80.0?

 

The max is currently around 5th-6th warmest for July. The min is in 1st place just ahead of 2010. The AVG is in 3rd place behind 2010. The heat index which takes into account the dew points set a new July record this month at 91.5° vs 90.0° in July 2010. So the drier heat back in July 2010 made it feel slightly cooler. 
 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Max
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2010 89.0 0
2 2011 88.6 0
3 2022 86.9 0
4 1993 86.8 0
5 2019 86.7 0
- 1966 86.7 0
6 2025 86.6 2
7 2013 86.5 0
- 1999 86.5 0
8 2020 86.4 0
- 1983 86.4 0
9 1949 86.2 0
10 2002 86.1 0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Min
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2025 72.7 2
2 2010 72.5 0
3 2013 72.4 0
4 2020 72.2 0
5 2022 71.6 0
6 2015 71.5 0
7 2016 71.4 0
- 1995 71.4 0
8 2024 71.2 0
- 1955 71.2 0
9 1994 71.1 0


 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul AGV
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2010 80.7 0
2 2011 79.8 0
3 2025 79.6 2
4 2013 79.5 0
5 2022 79.3 0
- 2020 79.3 0
6 2019 78.8 0
7 1999 78.7 0
- 1993 78.7 0
8 2016 78.6 0
- 1983 78.6 0
- 1949 78.6 0
9 2015 78.4 0
- 2012 78.4 0
10 1994 78.1 0
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13 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

It wouldn't surprise me if the average low for the city this july is about 76. Crazy

It's really hard to average that high over a month because all it takes is a few days below average and a bunch of days near average and then even if 20 out of 30 days were a decent amount above normal at night your average gets dragged down. 

The latest average low in July at LGA is 72. 

For example if you have 5 lows at -2 departure , 5 days at 0 departure, 10 days at +3 departure and 10 days at +5 departure, even though most lows were very warm the whole month's lows comes out to +2.3 degrees. 

Central Park's average July low is 70 so for them it's significantly harder to have any monthly average low of 76. 

LGA is currently 73.2 degrees for the average monthly low despite the heat. 

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Just now, bluewave said:

The max is currently around 5th-6th warmest for July. The min is in 1st place just ahead of 2010. The AVG is in 3rd place behind 2010. The heat index which takes into account the dew points set a new July record this month at 91.5° vs 90.0° in July 2010. So the drier heat back in July 2010 made it feel slightly cooler. 
 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Max
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2010 89.0 0
2 2011 88.6 0
3 2022 86.9 0
4 1993 86.8 0
5 2019 86.7 0
- 1966 86.7 0
6 2025 86.6 2
7 2013 86.5 0
- 1999 86.5 0
8 2020 86.4 0
- 1983 86.4 0
9 1949 86.2 0
10 2002 86.1 0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2025 72.7 2
2 2010 72.5 0
3 2013 72.4 0
4 2020 72.2 0
5 2022 71.6 0
6 2015 71.5 0
7 2016 71.4 0
- 1995 71.4 0
8 2024 71.2 0
- 1955 71.2 0
9 1994 71.1 0


 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul AGV
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2010 80.7 0
2 2011 79.8 0
3 2025 79.6 2
4 2013 79.5 0
5 2022 79.3 0
- 2020 79.3 0
6 2019 78.8 0
7 1999 78.7 0
- 1993 78.7 0
8 2016 78.6 0
- 1983 78.6 0
- 1949 78.6 0
9 2015 78.4 0
- 2012 78.4 0
10 1994 78.1 0

I just looked through your graphs and it looks like 1949 was really hot too (mins even higher than 1983 and the maxes were right behind 1983), you shared the graph for 1983, what was going on in 1949 that made it so hot?

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, it's true.  But temperature is what we can measure directly.  You need to work with some math formulas to combine moistness with temperature to measure heat.

the official NWS definition of *hot summer* ranks them by number of 90 degree highs and does not factor in moisture.

 

No one ever references dewpoints when talking about hot temps.  They reference 90 degree temps like you said.  Plus we will probably switch to wbgt within a few years which measures real feel much much better than the outdated method now.  Kind of how they switched wind chill measurements in 2001.

93

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6 minutes ago, FPizz said:

No one ever references dewpoints when talking about hot temps.  They reference 90 degree temps like you said.  Plus we will probably switch to wbgt within a few years which measures real feel much much better than the outdated method now.  Kind of how they switched wind chill measurements in 2001.

93

Yea but looking at WBGT, doesn't that actually make numbers hotter compared to HI?

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10 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Yea but looking at WBGT, doesn't that actually make numbers hotter compared to HI?

Yeah, the heat index tends to underestimate the heat compared to WBGT. 

https://perryweather.com/resources/heat-index-wet-bulb-globe-temp/

When it comes to measuring heat, not all conditions are created equal. The heat index only accounts for shady areas, giving a false sense of comfort, while the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is designed for areas exposed to the sun, offering a more accurate reflection of how the body actually experiences heat. 

The heat index ignores the brutal realities of direct sunlight, hot surfaces, and even physical exertion. Here’s why that’s a problem:

Scenario 1: The Heat Index Misleads
On a humid, sunny afternoon, the heat index might say it’s 95°F. That doesn’t account for athletes running drills under the beating sun, which pushes their bodies well past the comfort zone. 

WBGT, on the other hand, would reveal a much higher and more dangerous heat level, urging immediate safety measures.

Scenario 2: WBGT in Effect
Imagine you’re a high school football coach and your team is practicing on a synthetic turf field. The air temperature is 90°F, but the turf absorbs and radiates heat, while the sun adds extra intensity. 

WBGT considers these factors, showing the real danger that the heat index overlooks.

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Heavy showers organizing E PA. SPC HREF seems to have spot 7" MAX potential by Thu evening.  Waiting completion of the HREF and then probably starting a thread for iso FF, detours, travel delays...sometime between 4-8P.  

Think the Completion of the HREF showed as much as 10" MAX in NJ!!

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the heat index tends to underestimate the heat compared to WBGT. 

https://perryweather.com/resources/heat-index-wet-bulb-globe-temp/

When it comes to measuring heat, not all conditions are created equal. The heat index only accounts for shady areas, giving a false sense of comfort, while the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is designed for areas exposed to the sun, offering a more accurate reflection of how the body actually experiences heat. 

The heat index ignores the brutal realities of direct sunlight, hot surfaces, and even physical exertion. Here’s why that’s a problem:

Scenario 1: The Heat Index Misleads
On a humid, sunny afternoon, the heat index might say it’s 95°F. That doesn’t account for athletes running drills under the beating sun, which pushes their bodies well past the comfort zone. 

WBGT, on the other hand, would reveal a much higher and more dangerous heat level, urging immediate safety measures.

Scenario 2: WBGT in Effect
Imagine you’re a high school football coach and your team is practicing on a synthetic turf field. The air temperature is 90°F, but the turf absorbs and radiates heat, while the sun adds extra intensity. 

WBGT considers these factors, showing the real danger that the heat index overlooks.

Does WBGT give a *this is what this temperature feels like to an average person* kind of reading? From what I saw, it was an index that goes up to 90? It's a little different.

 

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24 minutes ago, FPizz said:

No one ever references dewpoints when talking about hot temps.  They reference 90 degree temps like you said.  Plus we will probably switch to wbgt within a few years which measures real feel much much better than the outdated method now.  Kind of how they switched wind chill measurements in 2001.

93

Yes, I saw the NWS put out a video about it.  I wonder if there's a way to find out what the WBGT was in some of our bigger heatwaves (including this one and the one back in June).

It also reminds me of the newer EF scale for tornadoes.

 

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