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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability


wdrag
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Just now, bluewave said:

But the 0z Euro dropped its highs for Monday compared to the GFS. Thinking it’s the Euro having better representation of the smoke. The only day the Euro has 100° is on Wednesday. It’s possible that this would have been a 3 day run of reaching 100° without any smoke.
 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aerosol-forecasts?base_time=202507270000&layer_name=composition_aod550&projection=classical_north_america&valid_time=202508010000

 

wow even for JFK?

why did this happen now and not back in June? did those fires only just get started Chris?

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17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow even for JFK?

why did this happen now and not back in June? did those fires only just get started Chris?

The smoke coming from Saskatchewan and Manitoba just surpassed the all-time record from those areas. So this isn’t a normal situation for us.

My guess without any smoke that it would have been a 2-3 day event for reaching 100°. Now it may be down to just 1 or maybe 2 days.

We will probably have to check the latest HRRR each morning to see how much smoke will be around each day.

But my guess is that Wednesday will probably have the best shot of more widespread 100° potential just as a fact of the heat having 3 days to build off the warming minimums each day.
 

 

Mark Parrington
 
‪@mparrington.bsky.social‬
 
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Total estimated emissions from Canadian #wildfires continue to increase rapidly with 2025 already 3rd highest year, after 2023 & 2024, as of 13 July. #CopernicusAtmosphere GFAS data based on MODIS active fire obs ads.atmosphere.copernicus.eu/datasets/cam... @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social @ecmwf.int
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July 14, 2025 at 10:57 AM
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Saskatchewan & Manitoba have already surpassed their previous highest annual total #wildfire emissions with Ontario amongst the highest in the 23-year #CopernicusAtmosphere dataset. Further west, British Columbia is comparable to 2023 & 2024 for the same time of year.
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46 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it'll probably get here after 2 pm

the morning rain didn't happen but that actually increases the chances the afternoon rain will.

 

Should be in NJ by 11 and if holds to the city before 12:30/noon.

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4 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Thoughts for Suffolk south shore, mostly dry or strong chance it'll get wet? If it gets wet is that ^^ 2pm about right or will it be earlier?

I think most activity today is SW NJ back into the DC area.  There may be some cells north of Trenton up through the NYC area but not sure its widespread at all.

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12z NAM 3km was a joke with how far off it was with the heavy rain it had going through this area late morning and midday. HRRR much closer to reality. I'm hoping for some rain today since it's very dry here. We've had very little since the floods a couple weeks ago. It's not looking great for rain today though ... HRRR has very little and it appears that we have only a slight chance. 

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3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think most activity today is SW NJ back into the DC area.  There may be some cells north of Trenton up through the NYC area but not sure its widespread at all.

Well... I'm at the music festival in Patchogue sitting under a very wet tent under increasingly heavier rain. :shrug: 

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EPS 95-100 TUE and WED. central LI west.

Also a 50-60% prob of 1+" in 24 hrs for NJ Thu into Fri.

Not threading yet but may combine Tue-Fri morning for the two probable 100"s at KEWR Tue and Wed and a heavy rain event I95 corridor sewd later Wed-Fri...  most ensembles not buying the cyclically repetitive EPS R+. Worthy of. monitoring. 

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9 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Should be in NJ by 11 and if holds to the city before 12:30/noon.

we got enough to make the ground wet but nothing heavy or even that noticeable.

The sun came out before 4 and it's actually been a really nice late afternoon.

Can't even see any smoke or haze anywhere just blue skies and some puffy white clouds.

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1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Made it to 90 here, a side note TPA reached 100 for the first time in Tampa history.

Yay so Florida has been hitting 100? So that means if we have Florida weather we will be too, even with onshore flow :-)

 

What was the high in Orlando? They hit 100 once every 10 years or so (about the same as JFK).

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

EPS 95-100 TUE and WED. central LI west.

Also a 50-60% prob of 1+" in 24 hrs for NJ Thu into Fri.

Not threading yet but may combine Tue-Fri morning for the two probable 100"s at KEWR Tue and Wed and a heavy rain event I95 corridor sewd later Wed-Fri...  most ensembles not buying the cyclically repetitive EPS R+. Worthy of. monitoring. 

JFK could hit 100 again, I look forward to it!!

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9 hours ago, bluewave said:

The smoke coming from Saskatchewan and Manitoba just surpassed the all-time record from those areas. So this isn’t a normal situation for us.

My guess without any smoke that it would have been a 2-3 day event for reaching 100°. Now it may be down to just 1 or maybe 2 days.

We will probably have to check the latest HRRR each morning to see how much smoke will be around each day.

But my guess is that Wednesday will probably have the best shot of more widespread 100° potential just as a fact of the heat having 3 days to build off the warming minimums each day.
 

 

Mark Parrington
 
‪@mparrington.bsky.social‬
 
Follow
Total estimated emissions from Canadian #wildfires continue to increase rapidly with 2025 already 3rd highest year, after 2023 & 2024, as of 13 July. #CopernicusAtmosphere GFAS data based on MODIS active fire obs ads.atmosphere.copernicus.eu/datasets/cam... @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social @ecmwf.int
bafkreidcovbgua7kif6lxfe65sphe4jl553cvt6
 
bafkreidqnrfsecpe324ihb5kkbg2kjwdjmlo5xf
 
July 14, 2025 at 10:57 AM
Everybody can reply
22 reposts
2 quotes
34 likes
2
24
 
 
34
 
 
 
 
 
bafkreiaqbmkls3o6poj33bbj3dsidcj4jkbzchc
 
Saskatchewan & Manitoba have already surpassed their previous highest annual total #wildfire emissions with Ontario amongst the highest in the 23-year #CopernicusAtmosphere dataset. Further west, British Columbia is comparable to 2023 & 2024 for the same time of year.
bafkreicyx3z62armqqig4ndi4c6sjvz53v7d74r
 
 
5
 
 
9
 
 
 


 

thanks Chris and no sea breeze until after 4 pm each day?

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1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Highs:

 

PHL: 91
TEB: 90
EWR: 90
ACY: 89
New Brnswck: 89
TTN: 88
LGA: 88
BLM: * 85 missing data / intra hour highs
JFK: 85
NYC: 84
ISP: 81

79 here today with the rain

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