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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability


wdrag
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21 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

83 / 72  sunny.  Hot one - hottest day since Jul 8th - mid - upper 90s, a race to 100 vs clouds and storms/showers later this evening.   Will be close.   Weekend gets a reprieve from heat with onshore Saturday / inland hotter areas still to 90 on Satruday,  Clouds / storms on Sunday keep it cooler.  Mon - Wed hot again as stronger heat bubbles north ,Tue 850 MB temps >18c - >19c push the hot spots to the upper 90s / perhaps low 100s, still need to watch clouds / storms.    Ridge backs west by the 31st with cooler period that sees a onshore flow develop before warm-hot returns around the 7/8th.  

 

7/25 - 7/30 :  Hot / Humid - Storms Fri PM / Sun - Peak heat Fri /Tue-Wed
7/31 - 8/7 :  Cooler - overall near normal  drier
8/8 :  Overall warm - hot / Humid 

 

GOES19-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

are we sure today's going to be all that hot? it's not even in the mid 80s here yet and the sky is a deep blue kind of clear sky, no haze like we usually see on very hot days and the temperatures are not rising quickly like they did in late June at this time.

 

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Just now, SACRUS said:

 

Im going on 10 days since last rainfall here 

 

Last rainfall for the following

EWR: 7/14
NYC: 7/14
LGA:  7/14
JFK: 7/20

Yes, around here it's only been 5 days, we got about 30 minutes of a very heavy rain shower on the night of 7/20.... do you have the JFK total from that night Tony?

 

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

are we sure today's going to be all that hot? it's not even in the mid 80s here yet and the sky is a deep blue kind of clear sky, no haze like we usually see on very hot days and the temperatures are not rising quickly like they did in late June at this time.

 

 

Assuming hot is : 90 - 94
Strong heat : 95 - 98
Extreme heat : 99 - 104
Inferno : 105+

Id go in the strong heat category with a few hot spots at extreme heat. 850 MB temps 18C - 19C.

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Just now, SACRUS said:

 

Assuming hot is : 90 - 94
Strong heat : 95 - 98
Extreme heat : 99 - 104
Inferno : 105+

Id go in the strong heat category with a few hot spots at extreme heat. 850 MB temps 18C - 19C.

Oh nice I am going with this classification too.

Hot is like a SECS (4-8 inches of snow)

Strong heat is like a MECS (8 to 15 inches of snow)

Extreme heat is like a HECS  (16 to 29 inches of snow)

Inferno is like a BECS (30 inches of snow plus)

I would adjust strong heat to 95-99 and extreme heat to 100-104 though

 

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In an otherwise cooler summer in reference to the deadly 1972 heatwave  - it di feature an almost 2 week heat wave.  Nothing exceptional but apparently this was a deadly heatwave in the mid atlantic / northeast

 

EWR

July 1972 Newark Weather
Day High (°F) Low (°F) Precip. (inches) Snow (inches)
84 64 0.00 0.0
91 71 0.00 0.0
91 72 0.14 0.0
79 65 0.00 0.0
68 61 0.10 0.0
75 59 0.00 0.0
78 60 0.00 0.0
78 63 0.13 0.0
79 61 0.00 0.0
89 67 0.00 0.0
91 69 0.00 0.0
91 73 0.00 0.0
78 71 3.25 0.0
92 73 0.00 0.0
95 76 0.00 0.0
90 77 0.00 0.0
92 75 0.74 0.0
90 78 0.00 0.0
95 78 0.00 0.0
90 74 0.11 0.0
93 73 0.19 0.0
92 75 0.00 0.0
96 79 0.00 0.0
90 80 0.00 0.0
91 72 0.01 0.0
80 66 0.00 0.0
81 68 0.00 0.0
81 68 0.00 0.0
81 66 0.00 0.0
81 69 0.00 0.0
73 69 0.03 0.0
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1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

In an otherwise cooler summer in reference to the deadly 1972 heatwave  - it di feature an almost 2 week heat wave.  Nothing exceptional but apparently this was a deadly heatwave in the mid atlantic / northeast

 

EWR

 

July 1972 Newark Weather
Day High (°F) Low (°F) Precip. (inches) Snow (inches)
84 64 0.00 0.0
91 71 0.00 0.0
91 72 0.14 0.0
79 65 0.00 0.0
68 61 0.10 0.0
75 59 0.00 0.0
78 60 0.00 0.0
78 63 0.13 0.0
79 61 0.00 0.0
89 67 0.00 0.0
91 69 0.00 0.0
91 73 0.00 0.0
78 71 3.25 0.0
92 73 0.00 0.0
95 76 0.00 0.0
90 77 0.00 0.0
92 75 0.74 0.0
90 78 0.00 0.0
95 78 0.00 0.0
90 74 0.11 0.0
93 73 0.19 0.0
92 75 0.00 0.0
96 79 0.00 0.0
90 80 0.00 0.0
91 72 0.01 0.0
80 66 0.00 0.0
81 68 0.00 0.0
81 68 0.00 0.0
81 66 0.00 0.0
81 69 0.00 0.0
73 69 0.03 0.0

wow it shows that even low to mid 90s can be deadly, the length of that heatwave might be what made it so deadly.

It's not on the list of longest NYC heatwaves though.

 

Why was that heatwave in 1972 more deadly than the two longer and more extreme heatwaves in 1999 though?  1999 was second only to 1953 in heatwave length and extremes.

 

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3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

In an otherwise cooler summer in reference to the deadly 1972 heatwave  - it di feature an almost 2 week heat wave.  Nothing exceptional but apparently this was a deadly heatwave in the mid atlantic / northeast

 

EWR

 

July 1972 Newark Weather
Day High (°F) Low (°F) Precip. (inches) Snow (inches)
84 64 0.00 0.0
91 71 0.00 0.0
91 72 0.14 0.0
79 65 0.00 0.0
68 61 0.10 0.0
75 59 0.00 0.0
78 60 0.00 0.0
78 63 0.13 0.0
79 61 0.00 0.0
89 67 0.00 0.0
91 69 0.00 0.0
91 73 0.00 0.0
78 71 3.25 0.0
92 73 0.00 0.0
95 76 0.00 0.0
90 77 0.00 0.0
92 75 0.74 0.0
90 78 0.00 0.0
95 78 0.00 0.0
90 74 0.11 0.0
93 73 0.19 0.0
92 75 0.00 0.0
96 79 0.00 0.0
90 80 0.00 0.0
91 72 0.01 0.0
80 66 0.00 0.0
81 68 0.00 0.0
81 68 0.00 0.0
81 66 0.00 0.0
81 69 0.00 0.0
73 69 0.03 0.0

The only thing that interrupted that heatwave was a 3.25 inch deluge on Day 3, I wonder what kind of storm that was? That was almost a 15 day heatwave if you count the 89 the day before it started.

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10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

are we sure today's going to be all that hot? it's not even in the mid 80s here yet and the sky is a deep blue kind of clear sky, no haze like we usually see on very hot days and the temperatures are not rising quickly like they did in late June at this time.

 

I think upper 90s in the hottest spots with full sun. Yesterday wasnt all that hot but I ended up surging late to 90...I dont think its as intense as the June scorch but would be surprised not to hit at least 94 today. 

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Just now, winterwarlock said:

I think upper 90s in the hottest spots with full sun. Yesterday wasnt all that hot but I ended up surging late to 90...I dont think its as intense as the June scorch but would be surprised not to hit at least 94 today. 

94-98 is the range I would go with and that's pretty good (and close to our July max of 95 which we hit earlier in the month.)

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4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

94-98 is the range I would go with and that's pretty good (and close to our July max of 95 which we hit earlier in the month.)

 

I hope the JFK reporting includes the intra hour readings today, would be ashame to miss some spikes between hours.  Still dealing with BLM issues for over 2 months.

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4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

I hope the JFK reporting includes the intra hour readings today, would be ashame to miss some spikes between hours.  Still dealing with BLM issues for over 2 months.

are there power outages or something? what causes the intrahour issues?

I think they missed a 90 degree reading in there, we hit 90 here a few days ago at 4:04 pm and JFK didn't catch it.

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13 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

I hope the JFK reporting includes the intra hour readings today, would be ashame to miss some spikes between hours.  Still dealing with BLM issues for over 2 months.

I just saw a live video of the Manhattan skyline, why does it look so POLLUTED and SMOGGY?? Is it because of trapped pollutants from car fuel exhaust?? Barely any visibility in the video I saw, meanwhile 25 miles to the east over here it's a very clear and deep blue sky with zero haze.

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9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

are there power outages or something? what causes the intrahour issues?

I think they missed a 90 degree reading in there, we hit 90 here a few days ago at 4:04 pm and JFK didn't catch it.

I was told that it was an I.T. issue, but no further details were provided.

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Imby didnt hit 90 until 6/19. Since 6/19 I have a total of 20 90 degree days. That is 20 out of last 36 days of 90 plus. Today will add to that list. I have had 4 heatwaves...2 3 days variety and 2 of 4 days. Hottest day was 6/24 at 100. Since 6/19 27 of 36 days have recorded a max dew of 75 plus with the peak of 83 on 6/23 and 7/8. Hottest July day was 94 on July 8

 

Total July rainfall is 6.01 inches...more than half of which fell on 7/14

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I understand; tomatoes, lettuce, cucumbers, they all need a lot of rain (I used to grow them, now I grow only flowers-- they need less watering lol).  It's a fine line between rain and fungus/mold though ;-)  I wouldn't mind rain Saturday night, it wouldn't interrupt anyone's beach plans.

Yeah despite all that flooding a little less than 2 weeks ago, I'm back to watering the vegetable garden now. And when I cut the lawn yesterday there was dry dirt flying. It doesn't take long for the soil to dry out in the summer. I think we could use some rain here again. I'd like to see a downpour later today. People that have vegetable gardens don't like going too long without rain. You can water all you want, but nothing makes the plants grow like rain. 

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2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah despite all that flooding a little less than 2 weeks ago, I'm back to watering the vegetable garden now. And when I cut the lawn yesterday there was dry dirt flying. It doesn't take long for the soil to dry out in the summer. I think we could use some rain here again. I'd like to see a downpour later today. People that have vegetable gardens don't like going too long without rain. You can water all you want, but nothing makes the plants grow like rain. 

Certainly getting all that much rain at once is less preferable for soil concerns than 1 to 2" a week. If imagine much of it ran off 

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52 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I was told that it was an I.T. issue, but no further details were provided.

Mind boggling how it cant publish the intra hour data  or show a live update, especially at such a major/critical reporting station.  

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44 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's really crazy how different things feel with high vs low dews. I'll take 100+ with 50 dews over this crap any day 

Some interesting numbers from the NOAA/NWS weather calculator pages, and assuming a sea level pressure of 30"

Temp 95F, RH 20% = Dewpoint of 48 and associated Heat Index of 91.5F
Temp 95F, RH 55% = Dewpoint of 76 and associated Heat Index of 109F

Also, at high temperatures, relatively small jumps in the RH% value can make a BIG difference in the comfort level.

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22 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah despite all that flooding a little less than 2 weeks ago, I'm back to watering the vegetable garden now. And when I cut the lawn yesterday there was dry dirt flying. It doesn't take long for the soil to dry out in the summer. I think we could use some rain here again. I'd like to see a downpour later today. People that have vegetable gardens don't like going too long without rain. You can water all you want, but nothing makes the plants grow like rain. 

Looks like rain will be moving in around 4 pm and last through about 6 pm, there will be a sharp 10 degree temperature drop between 3 and 4 when it comes in.

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4 minutes ago, Picard said:

Some interesting numbers from the NOAA/NWS weather calculator pages, and assuming a sea level pressure of 30"

Temp 95F, RH 20% = Dewpoint of 48 and associated Heat Index of 91.5F
Temp 95F, RH 55% = Dewpoint of 76 and associated Heat Index of 109F

Also, at high temperatures, relatively small jumps in the RH% value can make a BIG difference in the comfort level.

Check out July 5, 1999 when we had a temperature of 102 and a dew point of 45 here lol

 

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