July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

12Z NAM brings the front through late afternoon tomorrow. Places just west of NYC close to 100 before then

what time? I'm worried about clouds interrupting peak heating.

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what time? I'm worried about clouds interrupting peak heating.

Storms arrive from the NW around 4-5pm depending on location

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Storms arrive from the NW around 4-5pm depending on location

Is there a way to see when clouds arrive? If it's 4-5 pm for rain I'd assume it's 2 pm for clouds?

 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Is there a way to see when clouds arrive? If it's 4-5 pm for rain I'd assume it's 2 pm for clouds?

 

yeah if you look on Tropical tidbits you can do cloud shot-clouds come in around 2-3pm but not totally overcast.   

[bluewave]

26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1993 really stands apart from all these summers (although 2011 is pretty close).... why isn't 2010 on this list?

 

2010 only had 100° heat in July. So 1993 was the last time Newark had 100° heat during all 3 summer months.

Last summer Harrison had 100° heat all 3 months away from the sea breeze. So I suppose it’s still possible that somebody away from the sea breeze in NJ could make another run on 100° in August.

Especially if the EPS underestimation of the long range temperatures beyond 15 days continues in the East. So the current models could be underestimating the warm up potential beyond the first week of August. 
 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for HARRISON, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025	103	98	M	103
2021	101	100	99	101
2012	101	103	95	103
2024	100	101	100	101

 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

2010 only had 100° heat in July. So 1993 was the last time Newark had 100° heat during all 3 summer months.

Last summer Harrison had 100° heat all 3 months away from the sea breeze. So I suppose it’s still possible that somebody away from the sea breeze in NJ could make another run on 100° in August.

Especially if the EPS underestimation of the long range temperatures beyond 15 days  continues in the East. So the current models could be underestimating the warm up potential beyond the first week of August. 
 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for HARRISON, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025	103	98	M	103
2021	101	100	99	101
2012	101	103	95	103
2024	100	101	100	101

 

 

Crazy to see so many places 5-6F above the normal for 30 days in the heart of summer, especially with the current elevated norms.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Crazy to see so many places 5-6F above the normal for 30 days in the heart of summer, especially with the current elevated norms.

it's mostly minimum driven.

Around here, only a few summers come to mind for me when it comes to wall to wall summer heat from beginning to end and it's 2010, 2002, 1999, 1993, 1991, 1983.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

2010 only had 100° heat in July. So 1993 was the last time Newark had 100° heat during all 3 summer months.

Last summer Harrison had 100° heat all 3 months away from the sea breeze. So I suppose it’s still possible that somebody away from the sea breeze in NJ could make another run on 100° in August.

Especially if the EPS underestimation of the long range temperatures beyond 15 days continues in the East. So the current models could be underestimating the warm up potential beyond the first week of August. 
 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for HARRISON, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025	103	98	M	103
2021	101	100	99	101
2012	101	103	95	103
2024	100	101	100	101

 

 

if we're talking about wall to wall summer heat, it's going to be very difficult to equal 1983, when JFK hit 100 degrees in both July and August and NYC hit 99 on September 11th, 1983.

It makes me wonder what exactly was happening in 1983 that made June-July-August-September all 4 months so amazingly hot?

AND we also had over 80 inches of rain that year!

[nycwinter]

still feels comfortable outside dewpoint hovering around 60.

[TheClimateChanger]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

2010 only had 100° heat in July. So 1993 was the last time Newark had 100° heat during all 3 summer months.

Last summer Harrison had 100° heat all 3 months away from the sea breeze. So I suppose it’s still possible that somebody away from the sea breeze in NJ could make another run on 100° in August.

Especially if the EPS underestimation of the long range temperatures beyond 15 days continues in the East. So the current models could be underestimating the warm up potential beyond the first week of August. 
 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for HARRISON, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025	103	98	M	103
2021	101	100	99	101
2012	101	103	95	103
2024	100	101	100	101

 

 

Too much emphasis being placed on single sites (EWR, NYC) and not on the larger regional averages. Summer 1993 was tied with 1994 & 1901 for 28th warmest overall in northern New Jersey. For coastal New York, it is tied with 1995 for 25th warmest. As I have noted on multiple occasions, the HO-83 hygrothermometers had a warm bias of a good 1-1.5F, making a huge impact on rankings in that era. Nationally, it ranked as the 16th coldest on record, with many areas in the Intermountain West seeing their coldest summer since the NCEI dataset began in 1895.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, TheClimateChanger said:

Too much emphasis being placed on single sites (EWR, NYC) and not on the larger regional averages. Summer 1993 was tied with 1994 & 1901 for 28th warmest overall in northern New Jersey. For coastal New York, it is tied with 1995 for 25th warmest. As I have noted on multiple occasions, the HO-83 hygrothermometers had a warm bias of a good 1-1.5F, making a huge impact on rankings in that era. 

average temperatures are not what defines hottest summers, it's number of 90 degree days.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Too much emphasis being placed on single sites (EWR, NYC) and not on the larger regional averages. Summer 1993 was tied with 1994 & 1901 for 28th warmest overall in northern New Jersey. For coastal New York, it is tied with 1995 for 25th warmest. As I have noted on multiple occasions, the HO-83 hygrothermometers had a warm bias of a good 1-1.5F, making a huge impact on rankings in that era. 

people do not feel *average* temperatures, they feel the hottest days, in other words, number of 90 and 100 degree highs.

I'm sure most would not think the top 10 in a list of average temperatures were exceptionally hot.

[TheClimateChanger]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

average temperatures are not what defines hottest summers, it's number of 90 degree days.

 

Obviously, metrics like that are also affected by warm biased readings. 1993 is tied for warmest on record at EWR by summer mean average, even though the climate divisional average is only 28th (and tied with 2 other years). At Central Park, it is 4th hottest (tied with 2020 & 1983) but only tied for 25th hottest for the Coastal New York climate division.

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

if we're talking about wall to wall summer heat, it's going to be very difficult to equal 1983, when JFK hit 100 degrees in both July and August and NYC hit 99 on September 11th, 1983.

It makes me wonder what exactly was happening in 1983 that made June-July-August-September all 4 months so amazingly hot?

AND we also had over 80 inches of rain that year!

While it was a very wet spring and the rain gauge in Central Park was broken, a very strong summer drought develped in the Midwest to the East in 1983. One of the strongest Great Lakes ridges pretty much shut off the sea breeze. So extended westerly flow. If we ever saw this type of pattern from June into September in this much warmer climate, then I would expect 100° heat even to JFK as late as mid-September. 
 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

While it was a very wet spring and the rain gauge in Central Park was broken, a very strong summer drought develped in the Great Lakes to the East in 1983. One of the strongest Great Lakes ridges pretty much shut off the sea breeze. So extended westerly flow. If we ever saw this type of pattern from June into September in this much warmer climate, then I would expect 100° heat even to JFK as late as mid-September. 
 

 

Now THAT would be absolutely amazing and I hope I get to see it in my lifetime!

1983 was one of my all time favorite summers following one of my all time favorite blizzards!

[mgerb]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

So they were just sitting on this data for all these years and decided to all of a sudden release it?

I didn't think anyone was even keeping daily weather records in Newark from the early 1840s. 

How does the weather record of Newark beat NYC's by almost 30 years?

No one was "sitting on this data." Rather, it was uncovered through some old-fashioned library research combined with FORTS data. Here's some more detailed background: 

[TheClimateChanger]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Now THAT would be absolutely amazing and I hope I get to see it in my lifetime!

1983 was one of my all time favorite summers!

Look how much hotter Central Park was than everywhere else in July 1993:

Compare that to 2025:

 

 

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Now THAT would be absolutely amazing and I hope I get to see it in my lifetime!

1983 was one of my all time favorite summers following one of my all time favorite blizzards!

Yeah, 1982-1983 was one of my favorite winters for that February 1983 snowstorm. The early model runs were keeping the heaviest snows down closer to Philly. Then it shifted north right before the storm.

It was one of the few storms that came in as a wall of heavy snow right from the start. I was in class right before it started and it was just overcast with a dark sky to the south and brighter to the north just before 1pm.

Then right as we were getting dismissed closer to 2 it was snowing very heavily. One of my favorite walks home from the LB High school in heavy snow. 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, 1982-1983 was one of my favorite winters for that February 1983 snowstorm. The early model runs were keeping the heaviest snows down closer to Philly. Then it shifted north right before the storm.

It was one of the few storms that came in as a wall of heavy snow right from the start. I was in class right before it started and it was just overcast with a dark sky to the south and brighter to the north just before 1pm.

Then right as we were getting dismissed closer to 2 it was snowing very heavily. One of my favorite walks home from the LB High school in heavy snow. 

We even had our latest snow storm ever that season with the April 19-20, 1983 snowstorm, Chris, do you remember what that was like in Long Beach?

 

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Look how much hotter Central Park was than everywhere else in July 1993:

Compare that to 2025:

 

 

The reason why I consider 1993 the hottest summer that I experienced (prior to 2010) was because of that absolutely amazing heatwave in July when EWR exceeded 100 on 4 consecutive days, NYC exceeded 100 on 3 consecutive days and JFK exceeded 100 on 2 consecutive days, that was the most extreme heatwave I've ever experienced.  EWR finished with a whopping 9 100 plus days including hitting their all time record high of 105 twice.

[TheClimateChanger]

16 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Look how much hotter Central Park was than everywhere else in July 1993:

Compare that to 2025:

 

 

Among locations with data for periods. And this is just for max temps. With lows factored in, 2025 might be as warm. Excluding the questionable Bridgehampton readings, most places are within about 1F of 1993 average maximum temperatures this July so far, while Central Park is almost 5F colder! It looks like Central Park went from a warm bias to a cold bias, making direct comparisons tricky.

LGA 0.8F cooler

JFK 0.9F cooler

Westchester SAME

Islip 0.5F cooler

Riverhead 1.6F cooler

Bridgehampton 4.7F cooler

Central Park 4.8F cooler

 

[SACRUS]

 

83 / 64 clear mostly sunny with partly cloudy splitting NJ

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, TheClimateChanger said:

Among locations with data for periods. And this is just for max temps. With lows factored in, 2025 might be as warm. Excluding the questionable Bridgehampton readings, most places are within about 1F of 1993 average maximum temperatures this July so far, while Central Park is almost 5F colder!

LGA 0.8F cooler

JFK 0.9F cooler

Westchester SAME

Islip 0.5F cooler

Riverhead 1.6F cooler

Bridgehampton 4.7F cooler

Central Park 4.8F cooler

 

Hows Newark doing?

To be fair this summer is hotter than any summer here since 2011.

So this has been a very hot summer (so far anyway.)

 

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

We even had our latest snow storm ever that season with the April 19-20, 1983 snowstorm, Chris, do you remember what that was like in Long Beach?

 

That was a great late season higher elevation special.

https://www.nytimes.com/1983/04/20/nyregion/spring-snowstorm-disrupts-schools-and-traffic.html

WAYNE, N.J., April 19 - Drifts of snow, chilling sleet and heavy rain hit northern New Jersey today, dumping 15 inches of snow at Budd Lake in Morris County and 10 inches in Hackettstown in Warren County. Six inches of snow fell at Gladstone in Somerset County and four inches in Newton in Sussex County, according to the National Weather Service.

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That was a great late season higher elevation special.

https://www.nytimes.com/1983/04/20/nyregion/spring-snowstorm-disrupts-schools-and-traffic.html

WAYNE, N.J., April 19 - Drifts of snow, chilling sleet and heavy rain hit northern New Jersey today, dumping 15 inches of snow at Budd Lake in Morris County and 10 inches in Hackettstown in Warren County. Six inches of snow fell at Gladstone in Somerset County and four inches in Newton in Sussex County, according to the National Weather Service.

wow and Long Island had 2-4 inches.... JFK 2 inches, which is almost unheard of after April 15th....

the closest thing I can think of was that very light accumulating snowfall mixed with sleet on April 16, 2014, it was half an inch (but did give us our latest 32 degree low.)

 

[Sundog]

1 hour ago, mgerb said:

No one was "sitting on this data." Rather, it was uncovered through some old-fashioned library research combined with FORTS data. Here's some more detailed background: 

Thanks. 

My surprise is that no one thought to keep weather records in the much, much bigger city of NYC before or at least at the same time as they started in Newark. 

The population of NYC in the 1840s was more than 300,000 people and that doesn't include Brooklyn and Queens. Western parts of those boroughs had a decent amount of people at that time. 

Newark was only 20,000!

[mgerb]

5 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Thanks. 

My surprise is that no one thought to keep weather records in the much, much bigger city of NYC before or at least at the same time as they started in Newark. 

The population of NYC in the 1840s was more than 300,000 people and that doesn't include Brooklyn and Queens. Western parts of those boroughs had a decent amount of people at that time. 

Newark was only 20,000!

For sure. If you check out the NY state FORTS inventory here, you'll find a few dozen "New York" stations, some as far back as the early 1800s. But not sure if these are indeed all NYC stations and the data quality or completeness. But if interested, definitely suggest poking around there to try to learn more. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Too much emphasis being placed on single sites (EWR, NYC) and not on the larger regional averages. Summer 1993 was tied with 1994 & 1901 for 28th warmest overall in northern New Jersey. For coastal New York, it is tied with 1995 for 25th warmest. As I have noted on multiple occasions, the HO-83 hygrothermometers had a warm bias of a good 1-1.5F, making a huge impact on rankings in that era. Nationally, it ranked as the 16th coldest on record, with many areas in the Intermountain West seeing their coldest summer since the NCEI dataset began in 1895.

July 1993 was memorable especially in NJ for the number of stations with an average high temperature of 90° and higher. July 2022 was the most recent version of this in NJ. But July 2010 and 2011 have the most number of stations at 90° and above. This July so far has been more about the record dew points keeping the low temperatures up. So the 90° average highs this month aren’t as impressive as some past years.

Monthly Data for July 1993 for New Jersey
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

WAYNE	COOP	93.1
Newark Area	ThreadEx	92.2
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	92.2
MOORESTOWN 4 E	COOP	90.9
WOODSTOWN PITTSGROV 4E	COOP	90.7
CRANFORD	COOP	90.7
LODI	COOP	90.5
INDIAN MILLS 2 W	COOP	90.4
BELLEPLAIN STA FOREST	COOP	90.3

 

Monthly Data for July 2022 for New Jersey
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	92.1
Newark Area	ThreadEx	92.1
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	92.1
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	91.5
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	91.4
CANOE BROOK	COOP	91.4
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	91.4
HARRISON	COOP	91.0
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	90.5
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	90.5

 

Monthly Data for July 2010 for New Jersey
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Newark Area	ThreadEx	92.1
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	92.1
CANOE BROOK	COOP	91.7
WRIGHTSTOWN	COOP	91.6
TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT	WBAN	91.4
Trenton Area	ThreadEx	91.4
MARGATE	COOP	91.3
SOMERDALE 4 SW	COOP	91.3
PLAINFIELD	COOP	91.2
CRANFORD	COOP	91.0
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	90.9
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	90.9
RINGWOOD	COOP	90.9
HARRISON	COOP	90.8
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	90.6
MOORESTOWN 4 E	COOP	90.5
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	90.5
SANDY HOOK	COOP	90.5
MANASQUAN 1 NW	COOP	90.5
ESTELL MANOR	COOP	90.5
PENNSAUKEN 1N	COOP	90.3
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	90.2
TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	90.2
Atlantic City Area	ThreadEx	90.1
ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP	WBAN	90.1
TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	90.0

 

Monthly Data for July 2011 for New Jersey
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

SOMERDALE 4 SW	COOP	92.6
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	92.5
Newark Area	ThreadEx	92.5
TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT	WBAN	91.8
Trenton Area	ThreadEx	91.8
WRIGHTSTOWN	COOP	91.6
ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP	WBAN	91.4
PLAINFIELD	COOP	91.4
Atlantic City Area	ThreadEx	91.4
HARRISON	COOP	91.3
TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	91.2
SEABROOK FARMS	COOP	91.1
PENNSAUKEN 1N	COOP	91.1
MOORESTOWN 4 E	COOP	91.0
TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	90.8
ESTELL MANOR	COOP	90.7
HAMMONTON 1 NE	COOP	90.5
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	90.5
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	90.3
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	90.2
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	90.2
BOUND BROOK 2W	COOP	90.1
MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT	WBAN	90.0
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	90.0

 

Monthly Data for July 2025 for New Jersey
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	90.8
SALEM	COOP	90.5
HARRISON	COOP	90.2
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	90.0
Newark Area	ThreadEx	90.0

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Storms arrive from the NW around 4-5pm depending on location

Definitely time for more rain. Lawns not regularly watered are crispy. 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Definitely time for more rain. Lawns not regularly watered are crispy. 

even after a nice downpour here Sunday night we are bone dry again