July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[SACRUS]

[SACRUS]

 

 

Clouds from the Chantal system are already to MD

 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

For now will go with 3" max Mon afternoon-evening somewhere up here-probably near I95.  (Chantel 850 flow-moisture advection combined with RRQ of th UL jet over New England)

Looking ahead...the CF heavy convection in parts of the area Tue.  

Then Thu-Fri, maybe Sat... heavy rain potential with southern stream short wave and warm front returning.  Some of the experimental modeling has us in small chance iso FF THU-Sat (spot 5"+ this 3 day period). 

Yeah, these forecast soundings are really loaded with tropical moisture. Also weak steering flow could lead to stalling and training convection. Somebody could see some very heavy rains in a short time period.

[golfer67]

Are we talking complete washouts Thursday through the weekend or mostly cloudy days with scattered heavy showers in spots? 3 day member/guest tournament starts Thursday and really hoping we don't get washed out. 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Rooftops are usually like driveways, much hotter than the grass surfaces.   

But much more representative of the concrete jungle urban conditions present in the city.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, golfer67 said:

Are we talking complete washouts Thursday through the weekend or mostly cloudy days with scattered heavy showers in spots? 3 day member/guest tournament starts Thursday and really hoping we don't get washed out. 

mostly cloudy with scattered heavy showers is a wash out to me.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, these forecast soundings are really loaded with tropical moisture. Also weak steering flow could lead to stalling and training convection. Somebody could see some very heavy rains in a short time period.

Yep, as I thought, today is the last good day we will have for awhile, at least the weekend pattern has been changed.

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

 

Wouldn't rooftop stations give us inaccurate readings due to elevation?

the elevation is necessary to get above the shadows of the surrounding buildings.

[LibertyBell]

20 hours ago, bluewave said:

Absolutely. Just compare the old photos of the site from the recent ones. Most of those 100° readings from the 1930s into the early 1990s would have only been mid to upper 90s if the they had the same tree cover back then.

The strongest wind gust is still 78 mph set back in December of 1974 when the trees were much lower. So there could have been higher gusts in the interim but the tress could be interfering like with the temperatures.
 

 

 

I'd be willing to hazard a guess that the allergies were much lower back then too.  I actually didn't have the kind of allergies I have now back in the 80s and 90s.  Maybe for a brief period (like one or two weeks) in the spring.  Now it's 6 months out of the year.

By the way, I'm shocked the wind speed record is over 50 years old, you'd think that either Sandy or the December 1992 noreaster would hold that record.

 

[winterwarlock]

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yep, as I thought, today is the last good day we will have for awhile, at least the weekend pattern has been changed.

I just know this type of system overperforms and people will be caught off guard since mt holly really downplaying it rather than hyping

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

I just know this type of system overperforms and people will be caught off guard since mt holly really downplaying it rather than hyping

It sucks because the last three days were so great.  I didn't even mind the storms on Thursday because they led to a very rare triple rainbow here just before sunset.

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

mostly cloudy with scattered heavy showers is a wash out to me.

 

 

Cloud magnet may be back but i think tue/wed will see breaks and be quite warm-hot. the period thu - sun looks like limited sun with a hung up front as the W atl ridge edges west enough to be  nuisance.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

By the way, I'm shocked the wind speed record is over 50 years old, you'd think that either Sandy or the December 1992 noreaster would hold that record.

The treetops look like they are at a similar height to the anemometer. So they could also be serving as a barrier in front of the equipment to lessen the winds.

The trees were much lower in 1974 when the record 78 mph gust occurred. That was the strongest Nor’easter of the early 1970s. The winds were very loud in Long Beach with extensive coastal flooding. 

My elementary school in the LB West End still had water in the street from the tidal surge when the ocean met the bay in spots earlier that day. Plenty of sand and big puddles in the streets around my school. It was a really cool school bus ride that morning seeing all the sand and water still on West Park ave. 

[steve392]

We supposed to get rain tomorrow/Monday too for sure?  These temps and humidity are causing fungal issues in my yard and was going to treat it but only if rain was definitely coming tomorrow.

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yep, as I thought, today is the last good day we will have for awhile, at least the weekend pattern has been changed.

The 12z Euro has a Miami summer pattern here form the next 10 days. Many days with 75+ dew points and thunderstorms. So the spots that get the best training will probably have flooding concerns. 

[qg_omega]

Heavy rain in a storm by Albany driving south, unexpected

[Stormlover74]

Yay power's back on!

[gravitylover]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The treetops look like they are at a similar height to the anemometer. So they could also be serving as a barrier in front of the equipment to lessen the winds.

The trees were much lower in 1974 when the record 78 mph gust occurred. That was the strongest Nor’easter of the early 1970s. The winds were very loud in Long Beach with extensive coastal flooding. 

My elementary school in the LB West End still had water in the street from the tidal surge when the ocean met the bay in spots earlier that day. Plenty of sand and big puddles in the streets around my school. It was a really cool school bus ride that morning seeing all the sand and water still on West Park ave. 

If that's the same one I remember around then we had deep standing water for a day or three in central Oceanside. I remember it because I had to repack the hubs on my bike from riding through it, back and forth, over and over..., when it was that deep.

[WeatherGeek2025]

Hey guys, I was thinking about going to the beach tomorrow? I don't mind cloudy but of course widespread rain is not good for the beach. Are we expecting widespread rain or partial shower or two?

[Stormlover74]

15 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Hey guys, I was thinking about going to the beach tomorrow? I don't mind cloudy but of course widespread rain is not good for the beach. Are we expecting widespread rain or partial shower or two?

Looks showery all week. Not sure we'll see anything widespread 

[WeatherGeek2025]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Looks showery all week. Not sure we'll see anything widespread 

thank you sir, i'll just go hang out in the city instead

[IrishRob17]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yay power's back on!

I went almost 4 days after the Feb 2010 Snowicane. The storm was great, the lack of power, water, and heat got old real fast. 

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

I went almost 4 days after the Feb 2010 Snowicane. The storm was great, the lack of power, water, and heat got old real fast. 

Yeah I think despite the heat its still better than no power when its 20 out. March 2018 we lost power for 2 or 3 days. With the generator I was able to keep one window unit going during the day and a fan at night

[IrishRob17]

34 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah I think despite the heat its still better than no power when its 20 out. March 2018 we lost power for 2 or 3 days. With the generator I was able to keep one window unit going during the day and a fan at night

Nice. After that outage I got a generator in March of 2010.

[SACRUS]

Highs:
 

EWR: 95
TEB: 91 
LGA: 90
New Brnswck: 90
PHL: 90
TTN: 88
NYC: 87
JFK: 86
BLM: 86
ACY: 86
ISP: 85

[lee59]

47 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Highs:
 

EWR: 95
TEB: 91 
LGA: 90
New Brnswck: 90
PHL: 90
TTN: 88
NYC: 87
JFK: 86
BLM: 86
ACY: 86
ISP: 85

Newark an outlier. However it is in the hottest part of our region.

[psv88]

87

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 12z Euro has a Miami summer pattern here form the next 10 days. Many days with 75+ dew points and thunderstorms. So the spots that get the best training will probably have flooding concerns. 

Do you think it will be like last Thursday was??

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

The treetops look like they are at a similar height to the anemometer. So they could also be serving as a barrier in front of the equipment to lessen the winds.

The trees were much lower in 1974 when the record 78 mph gust occurred. That was the strongest Nor’easter of the early 1970s. The winds were very loud in Long Beach with extensive coastal flooding. 

My elementary school in the LB West End still had water in the street from the tidal surge when the ocean met the bay in spots earlier that day. Plenty of sand and big puddles in the streets around my school. It was a really cool school bus ride that morning seeing all the sand and water still on West Park ave. 

wow that sounds much like our March 2010 noreaster when we had 80 mph winds!!

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

Cloud magnet may be back but i think tue/wed will see breaks and be quite warm-hot. the period thu - sun looks like limited sun with a hung up front as the W atl ridge edges west enough to be  nuisance.

Looks like Tuesday might be our next shot at widespread 90 degrees, Tony??