2025 summer max contest -- THURSDAY JUNE 19 LAST DAY FOR ENTRIES -- enter by 06z June 20

[PrinceFrederickWx]

I’m winning… I just need to survive today. 

[Roger Smith]

Update __ June 24 ___ 99 _ 97 _ 98 _ 99

[nw baltimore wx]

12 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I’m winning… I just need to survive today. 

Just eyeballing, but I think @RickinBaltimore may be winning after today. I say we crown a champ now and move on to September!

[Roger Smith]

Current scoring as of June 24th

 

Actual values ___________________ 99 __ 97 __ 98 __ 99

FORECASTER _________________ DCA _IAD _BWI _RIC ___ errors ____ TOTAL (rank) __ error points baked in

gopper (16) ____________________ 103 _ 102 _ 102 _ 102 ___ 4 5 4 3 __ 16 (rank 19) ____ 0

batmanbrad (19) _______________ 103 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 4 4 4 1 __ 13 (rank 18) ____ 0

Roger Ramjet (20) _____________ 102 _ 101 _ 103 _ 103 ___ 3 4 5 4 __ 16 (rank 20)____ 0

tplbge (14) _____________________ 102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 101 ___ 3 3 3 2 __ 11 (rank 15) ____ 0

DanTheMan (8) ________________ 101 _ 103 _ 104 _ 103 ___ 2 6 6 4 __ 18 (rank 21)____ 0

Roger Smith (1) _________________ 101 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 2 4 4 1 __ 11 (rank 16) ____ 0

GramaxRefugee (18) ____________100 _ 101 _ 102 _ 101 ___ 1 4 4 2 __ 11 (rank 17) ____ 0

biodhokie (17) __________________ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100 ___ 1 4 3 1 ___ 9 (rank 14) ____ 0

wxdude64 (13) _________________ 100 _ 100 _ 102 _ 100 ___1 3 4 1 ___ 9 (rank 13) ____ 0

George BM (2) _________________ 100 __ 99 _ 101 _ 101 ___ 1 2 3 2 ___ 8 (rank 12) ____ 0

___ consensus _________________ 99  __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 __ 0 2 2 1 ___ 5 (rank 9) ____ 0

MillvilleWx (7) ___________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 102 ___ 0 2 2 3 ___ 7 (rank 11)____ 0

Rhino16 (5) ______________________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _ 101 ___ 0 2 1 2 ___ 5 (rank 9) ____ 0

Jenkins Jinkies (9) ______________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100 ___ 0 2 1 1 ___ 4 (rank 8) ____ 0

NorthArlington101 (6) ____________99 __ 99 __ 99 __ 99 ___ 0 2 1 0 ___ 3 (rank 6) ____ 0

RickinBaltimore (10) _____________ 99 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ___ 0 1 0 0 ___ 1 (rank 1) ____ 0

WxUSAF (4) _____________________ 99 __ 97 _ 100 __ 99 ___0 0 2 0 ___ 2 (rank 4) ____ 0

toolsheds (12) ___________________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 _ 101 ___ 0 0 1 2 ___ 3 (rank 7) ____ 0

Weather53 (21) __________________ 98 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 ___1 2 2 0 ___ 5 (rank 10)____ 1

nw baltimore wx (3) _____________ 98 __ 98 __ 99 __ 99 ___ 1 1 1 0 ___ 3 (rank 5) ____ 1

Its A Breeze (11) _________________ 98 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ___ 1 1 0 0 ___ 2 (rank 2) ____ 1

Prince Frederick Wx (15) ________ 98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 98 ___ 1 0 0 1 ___ 2 (rank 3) ____ 2

____________________________

see original post for tie-breaker protocols ... error points "baked in" are those from forecasts below actual values, these error points cannot now be reduced.

Consensus is median of forecasts. The mean of forecasts is 99.9, 99.5, 100.4, 100.3 or 100 _ 100 _ 100 _ 100,

Of 21 forecasts, nine have all locations at 100 or higher, five have no locations reaching 100F, seven have a blend. 

Ranges are 98-103, 97-103, 98-104, 98-103

 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

53 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Just eyeballing, but I think @RickinBaltimore may be winning after today. I say we crown a champ now and move on to September!

Let’s hope this was the hottest day of the year. I’m still gonna wishcast for July 2014 redux. 

[Rhino16]

Mine is probably impossible to achieve.

[Roger Smith]

Update, BWI 99 is the only upgrade today, RIC tied 99 already set. 96 at both DCA and IAD.

I will edit the scoring table ...

[Roger Smith]

Current scoring as of June 25th

I have added the two late forecasts to table to keep track of their unofficial rankings. These two late forecasts are not included in contest consensus.

Their ranks will not alter any forecaster ranks for on-time "official" entries. A decimal rank indicates a position between two official ranks.

Actual values ___________________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99

FORECASTER _________________ DCA _IAD _BWI _RIC ___ errors ____ TOTAL (rank) __ error points baked in 4120 6321

Jebman (L-2) __________________ 106 _ 103 _ 102 _ 101 ___ 7 6 3 2 __ 18 (rank 22) ____ 0

Miss Pixee (L-1) ________________ 104 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 5 4 3 1 __ 13 (rank 18.5) __ 0

gopper (16) ____________________ 103 _ 102 _ 102 _ 102 ___ 4 5 3 3 __ 15 (rank 19) ____ 0

batmanbrad (19) _______________ 103 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 4 4 3 1 __ 12 (rank 18) ____ 0

Roger Ramjet (20) _____________ 102 _ 101 _ 103 _ 103 ___ 3 4 4 4 __ 15 (rank 20)____ 0

tplbge (14) _____________________ 102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 101 ___ 3 3 2 2 __ 10 (rank 15) ____ 0

DanTheMan (8) ________________ 101 _ 103 _ 104 _ 103 ___ 2 6 5 4 __ 17 (rank 21)____ 0

Roger Smith (1) _________________ 101 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 2 4 3 1 __ 10 (rank 16) ____ 0

GramaxRefugee (18) ____________100 _ 101 _ 102 _ 101 ___ 1 4 3 2 __ 10 (rank 17) ____ 0

biodhokie (17) __________________ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100 ___ 1 4 2 1 ___ 8 (rank 14) ____ 0

wxdude64 (13) _________________ 100 _ 100 _ 102 _ 100 ___1 3 3 1 ___ 8 (rank 13) ____ 0

George BM (2) _________________ 100 __ 99 _ 101 _ 101 ___ 1 2 2 2 ___ 7 (rank 12) ____ 0

___ consensus _________________ 99  __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 __ 0 2 1 1 ___ 4 (rank 9) ____ 0

MillvilleWx (7) ___________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 102 ___ 0 2 1 3 ___ 6 (rank 11)____ 0

Rhino16 (5) ______________________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _ 101 ___ 0 2 0 2 ___ 4 (rank 10)____ 0

Jenkins Jinkies (9) ______________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100 ___ 0 2 0 1 ___ 3 (rank 8) ____ 0

NorthArlington101 (6) ____________99 __ 99 __ 99 __ 99 ___ 0 2 0 0 ___ 2 (rank 4) ____ 0

RickinBaltimore (10) _____________ 99 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ___ 0 1 1 0 ___ 2 (rank 3) ____ 1

WxUSAF (4) _____________________ 99 __ 97 _ 100 __ 99 ___0 0 1 0 ___ 1 (rank 1) ____ 0

toolsheds (12) ___________________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 _ 101 ___ 0 0 0 2 ___ 2 (rank 5) ____ 0

Weather53 (21) __________________ 98 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 ___1 2 1 0 ___ 4 (rank 9)____ 1

nw baltimore wx (3) _____________ 98 __ 98 __ 99 __ 99 ___ 1 1 0 0 ___ 2 (rank 2) ____ 1

Its A Breeze (11) _________________ 98 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ___ 1 1 1 0 ___ 3 (rank 6) ____ 2

Prince Frederick Wx (15) ________ 98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 98 ___ 1 0 1 1 ___ 3 (rank 7) ____ 3

____________________________

see original post for tie-breaker protocols ... error points "baked in" are those from forecasts below actual values, these error points cannot now be reduced.

Consensus is median of forecasts. The mean of forecasts is 99.9, 99.5, 100.4, 100.3 or 100 _ 100 _ 100 _ 100,

Of 21 forecasts, nine have all locations at 100 or higher, five have no locations reaching 100F, seven have a blend. 

Ranges are 98-103, 97-103, 98-104, 98-103

[WxUSAF]

Let’s gooooo

[NorthArlington101]

4 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Update, BWI 99 is the only upgrade today, RIC tied 99 already set. 96 at both DCA and IAD.

I will edit the scoring table ...

#itneverhits100 isn’t in a bad spot right now. Feel like DCA and IAD have room to grow this summer. 

[Roger Smith]

Anything is possible for forecasters with higher values than this heat wave produced, it's probably 50-50 whether a warmer spell comes along or not ... 1952 had similar heat and repeated it in mid-July. Some other years never got back to the June peaks they saw (1943 for one example, I think). 

The 1952 repeat was something like July 14-17.