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Central PA Summer 2025


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3 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

Just had 2.71 rain from a thunderstorm that sat and back builded for over and hour. Rain rate was 3.57 at times during the downpour.. makes me worry what could happen tomorrow if we get heavy rain.

You know, I saw that happening earlier and was wondering if you were just inside of that cell. Amazing. 

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16 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

You know, I saw that happening earlier and was wondering if you were just inside of that cell. Amazing. 

Yes I was inside that cell. Even almost 4 hours after the rain stopped and sun came back out, there is still water running. Coming out of the ground. The ground is saturated here. Hopefully I won't get much rain tomorrow. But if we get a few inches tomorrow it won't turn out good.

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27 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Yes I was inside that cell. Even almost 4 hours after the rain stopped and sun came back out, there is still water running. Coming out of the ground. The ground is saturated here. Hopefully I won't get much rain tomorrow. But if we get a few inches tomorrow it won't turn out good.

Send your rain my way. Didn't get a drop today.

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Currently projecting the Pennsylvania statewide average temperature for July to come in around 74.3F on NCEI, which would tie 2011 for 4th place.  I would assess an error margin of about 0.5F to that, which would place this year between 2nd place and 9th place.
oXzKLp7.png
We have sacrificed all possible 100 degree days to the dewpoint gods

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Flood Watch
National Weather Service State College PA
217 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

PAZ064>066-312100-
/O.CON.KCTP.FA.A.0023.250731T1800Z-250801T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of York, Gettysburg, and Lancaster
217 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
  possible.

* WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the following
  counties, Adams, Lancaster and York.

* WHEN...From this afternoon through late tonight.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Periods of heavy thunderstorm rainfall with rates in excess
    of 2 inches per hour are probable this afternoon into
    tonight. Localized rainfall totals could surpass 5 inches.
    This may result in significant flash flooding especially in
    highly populated urban corridors.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

 

Flood Watch
National Weather Service State College PA
217 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

PAZ028-036-041-042-046-049>053-056>059-063-312100-
/O.CON.KCTP.FA.A.0023.250731T1800Z-250801T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Juniata-Franklin-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Lycoming-
Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-
Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Including the cities of Mifflintown, Chambersburg, Lewisburg,
Selinsgrove, Shamokin, Hershey, Laporte, Pottsville, Sunbury,
Newport, Berwick, Danville, Lebanon, Bloomsburg, Carlisle,
Williamsport, Trout Run, and Harrisburg
217 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
  possible.

* WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the following
  areas, Columbia, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Juniata, Lebanon,
  Montour, Northern Lycoming, Northumberland, Perry, Schuylkill,
  Snyder, Southern Lycoming, Sullivan and Union.

* WHEN...From this afternoon through late tonight.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Periods of heavy rain with rates between 1 to 2 inches per
    hour are likely this afternoon into tonight. Localized
    rainfall totals up to 3 inches are possible. This may result
    in locally significant flash flooding.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
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Currently 72 degrees. No rain here.
Was yesterday….going to end up being the hottest day of the summer?
New York State is getting pounded hard with rain this morning. 

See what the totals turn out being.
IMG_2586.jpeg.fb78a84957a6d1dc2007a94e22856557.jpeg
What's causing the outbreak up there something far north of boundary? Wunderground local forecasts give me whiplash. Today has been pegged by them as an inch plus day for days until this morning when it dropped to 0.15"Screenshot_20250731_074415.jpg

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29 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Currently 72 degrees. No rain here.

Was yesterday….going to end up being the hottest day of the summer?

New York State is getting pounded hard with rain this morning. 

See what the totals turn out being.

IMG_2586.jpeg

That map perfectly depicts what I've been saying for about a month now. While it does show 1.5 to 2 inches in eastern Schuylkill, the heaviest rain, if the map were to verify, would be the usual north of I-80/south of I-78 scenario.

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18 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of only 75.  Exciting day ahead.  While the humidity has certainly lived up to the hype, the temps at the official stations have come in a good bit lower than expected the last couple of days.

Good point. Thoughts last week of temps approaching the century mark down here have ended up in the 93-95 range in reality. It helped it feel so much more refreshing to be outside. 

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We have a Flash Flood Watch in effect from 2pm through 6am Friday morning. Rain and storm chances begin to increase as we move into this afternoon and into the night. One to as much as three inches could fall in spots. Following the rain we cool down and clear out by Friday night with a fantastic weather weekend on tap for the entire area. Days mainly in the 70's with nights in the 50's. Pleasant weather looks to continue for much of next week.

image.png.4e5b3d4988fddb43d989e2a67a7aed4b.pngimage.thumb.png.1254bbcf59c9396dfd7097ba49a0dc6f.png
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From CTP:

Southern/Southeastern PA/Lower Susquehanna Valley
Farther south, this area is more removed from the jet-streak
dynamics to the north. However, this region is closer to the
deepening surface low with strong surface-925mb southerly
theta-e advection directed into the southeastward advancing
surface front. A tropical air-mass (depicted by 2-2.25" PWATs
and low-mid 70s dew points) will coincide within a warm sector
that becomes increasingly unstable (MUCAPE between 1,000-2,000
J/kg). It is worth noting that SST anomalies along the Mid-
Atlantic and Southeast coasts are well above normal too, acting
as an abnormally rich moisture source for southerly low-level
flow to draw from. By this afternoon, low-level WAA into the
front will support storms enveloping the region with additional
storms from the Laurel Highlands/south central Alleghenies
tracking east. Modest vertical wind shear aloft will also
support organized clusters of storms, some of which will have
the potential to backbuild and train between the I-81 and I-95
corridors into tonight. Latest 12Z HREF guidance shows 24-hr
probabilities for >3" of rainfall are high (>70%) across southeast
PA. Just as concerning is this same region sports 30-60%
chances for >5" of rainfall with 24hr PMM/LPMM values close to
the ensemble maxima approaching 8 inches.
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7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yep. 

I've had your yearly total of rain just since May 1st BTW. And I've gotten missed repeatedly over the past 10 days. 

I said it the other week when we were chattin up big totals for 2025, that we'd probably jinx it and rest of year struggle to reach climo.  While i dont think that'll happen.....just like AI....mo nature listens to everything we say.:P

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