Itstrainingtime Posted yesterday at 01:22 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:22 AM 1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Starting to get concerned with all this back-building right over my area. New flash flood warning issued. MU's Elliott now forecasting 6-10" of rain in northern Lanco... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted yesterday at 01:25 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:25 AM It’s pouring again in Marysville now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted yesterday at 01:27 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:27 AM There were torrential downpours in Harrisburg at my office today. No idea how @canderson somehow, someway, got missed by the rain today… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted yesterday at 01:32 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:32 AM Lebanon is now up to almost 5” of rain on the day and more in the queue it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted yesterday at 01:41 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:41 AM 12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: There were torrential downpours in Harrisburg at my office today. No idea how @canderson somehow, someway, got missed by the rain today… Me neither. Bizarre stuff. I am up to .15” now with a little band that went through. CXY is at ,2” for the day too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted yesterday at 02:00 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:00 AM 35 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: MU's Elliott now forecasting 6-10" of rain in northern Lanco... Saw that. Not great. Looks like a little over 3” for me thus far as I head to bed. More likely overnight. Official tally in the morning. Finally got the kids and dogs settled. Night, all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted yesterday at 02:16 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:16 AM 53 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: MU's Elliott now forecasting 6-10" of rain in northern Lanco... Dear lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted yesterday at 02:29 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:29 AM 12 minutes ago, canderson said: Dear lord Looking at radar there's at least 2-3 additional storms to move through over the next several hours. Same areas. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted yesterday at 02:30 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:30 AM Actual legit thunderstorm here…the lightning is nonstop. Never seen anything like this in years! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted yesterday at 02:40 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:40 AM The lighting to my SW is impressive. I again am stuck between two cells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted yesterday at 02:42 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:42 AM Manheim approaching 7" now. I'm at 2.5" with heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted yesterday at 02:56 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:56 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted yesterday at 03:03 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:03 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted yesterday at 03:07 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:07 AM Fed a bunch of the goes satellite gifs and radar gifs from radarscope along with what sounding data i could get from the RAP for Harrisburg, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Hagerstown and fed it into the custom gpt I've been slowly working on for weather that has plenty of good reference files to use. This is the response to The questions wise is happening and how long will it last The images together diagnose a boundary-anchored convective complex, with deep convection consistently regenerating over the area due to:A stationary mesoscale boundary anchored by terrain and earlier outflows.Sufficient instability and moisture, with storms rooted in the boundary layer.Weak mid- and upper-level winds, allowing for storm anchoring and repeated initiation.GLM confirms high lightning frequency, suggesting mature electrified updrafts.Satellite IR, RGB, and Sandwich images show severe convective indicators like cold U/V tops, ice plumes, and overshoots. Training Storm Duration Forecast – Camp Hill, PA (as of July 1, 2025)Prediction: The storm training over Camp Hill is likely to persist for at least another 90–120 minutes, potentially through midnight local time, with some weakening after that. Here's the expert-level breakdown:--- Why It's Still Ongoing1. Persistent Boundary Anchoring the ConvectionRadar, GOES-16 visible (Band 2), and IR (Band 13) imagery show repeated cell development aligned with a quasi-stationary boundary. This boundary is being fed by moist inflow from the south, aided by local terrain (i.e., Blue Mountain convergence).Band 2 shows tight convective towers. Band 13 reveals a consistent overshooting top signal, meaning convection remains deep and strong.2. GLM Flash Extent Density (FED)GLM data shows high-frequency lightning flash clusters (e.g., >100 flashes per minute locally). This high flash rate correlates with strong, vertically continuous updrafts and storm sustainability.3. No Synoptic Forcing to Move It AlongThere's no significant mid- or upper-level jet support to shift the storms eastward. Upper-level winds are weak and the entire convective system is largely terrain-anchored. These are classic ridge-running backbuilders.--- Projected Evolution (Next 2–3 Hours)Time Window Likely BehaviorNow–+30 min Persistent intense training over Camp Hill and adjacent downstream zones. New cells forming just upstream.+30–90 min Some signs of weakening begin as storm mergers and outflow contamination reduce instability. Flood threat peaks.+90–150 min Storms begin to decay or shift slightly southeast. Expect residual convection, but lighter and more scattered.--- What Would End the Training?1. Cold pool stabilization: If widespread downdrafts from merging cells finally chill the inflow.2. Low-level exhaustion: Surface-based CAPE drops from rain-cooled air.3. Nighttime boundary layer stabilization: More likely after 1–2 AM if inflow weakens.---Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted yesterday at 03:07 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:07 AM Finally got a tail end of the heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted yesterday at 03:12 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:12 AM There is yet another line forming out by Gettysburg. This is nuts… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted yesterday at 03:23 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:23 AM The LCL have to be super low with how ridiculous low I see the clouds are during flashes of lightningSent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted yesterday at 03:29 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:29 AM Finally got a tail end of the heavy rain I'm only at 0.70" for the day. 2 miles south they are all above 1.20". Couple miles north and no one's really above 0.45". So you and I are going to still be probably1.5"- 2" below normal for the year to start July while some of our board brethren will be 5"+ above normal. Heck, a couple of stations less than 5 mi from me have 6" more rain on the year than I do and are at +4"Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted yesterday at 03:32 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:32 AM Well forget sleeping. The whole house is up again. This is some of the most intense and persistent lightning I’ve ever witnessed. Phone keeps buzzing from NWS sending out warnings on an emergency flash flooding event in progress. Can’t get over how the radar just keeps firing in our direction. Very intense night around these parts. I’ll probably have damn near 6” come morning. Aye. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted yesterday at 03:33 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:33 AM Some places between Lancaster and Lebanon are almost at 7" from radar estimatesSent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted yesterday at 03:36 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:36 AM Well forget sleeping. The whole house is up again. This is some of the most intense and persistent lightning I’ve ever witnessed. Phone keeps buzzing from NWS sending out warnings on an emergency flash flooding event in progress. Can’t get over how the radar just keeps firing in our direction. Very intense night around these parts. I’ll probably have damn near 6” come morning. Aye. You've been due for a day like this for how many times storms seemed to just miss you the past couple years. I had my crazy storm day last summer with those tropical remnants setting up a 10-15 mile training band that left with me close to 9". Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted yesterday at 03:41 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:41 AM Looks like we get to do this tomorrow as well. Any idea the focus area for tomorrow or is it just a game of weather roulette. I didn't exactly have a super high rain chance for today this morning, only 40%, and this happened Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted yesterday at 03:54 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:54 AM 11 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Looks like we get to do this tomorrow as well. Any idea the focus area for tomorrow or is it just a game of weather roulette. I didn't exactly have a super high rain chance for today this morning, only 40%, and this happened Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk That’s my fear, that tomorrow could offer a repeat. Although it seems like tomorrow’s storms should move through at a faster pace, hopefully. Weather roulette indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted yesterday at 03:59 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:59 AM 28 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: I'm only at 0.70" for the day. 2 miles south they are all above 1.20". Couple miles north and no one's really above 0.45". So you and I are going to still be probably1.5"- 2" below normal for the year to start July while some of our board brethren will be 5"+ above normal. Heck, a couple of stations less than 5 mi from me have 6" more rain on the year than I do and are at +4" Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Lol, you & @canderson will likely need water delivered by @Voyager while the rest of us pump water out of our basements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted yesterday at 04:00 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:00 AM Thankfully only .48 in Marysville today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted yesterday at 04:01 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:01 AM Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Thankfully only .48 in Marysville today. Quite the lightning show looking out to my southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted yesterday at 04:31 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:31 AM 29 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Quite the lightning show looking out to my southeast. It’s unreal. Looks like the last of the heavy stuff just went through so hopefully we can get a reprieve and catch some shut eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted yesterday at 07:24 AM Share Posted yesterday at 07:24 AM 4.99" yesterday + 0.21" since midnight = 5.20" for East Petersburg. Holy f-bomb Batman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted yesterday at 09:00 AM Share Posted yesterday at 09:00 AM 90 was the high yesterday. .49 rain yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted yesterday at 09:01 AM Share Posted yesterday at 09:01 AM Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 439 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 PAZ036-057-059-063>066-020845- Franklin-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 439 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Additionally, strong to severe thunderstorm wind gusts are possible this afternoon and early this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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